Posted on 06/15/2010 9:37:36 PM PDT by CWW
What BP and the Government Are Not Telling Us:
The Deepwater Horizon Well Is Going to Collapse Soon Resulting in an Uncontrollable Oilcano.
The recent failure of the Top Kill ("mud kill") attempt revealed that the well bore structure is compromised "Down hole", i.e., the well pipes below the sea floor are broken and leaking. That's why the Top Kill procedure did not work.
What does this mean?
It means they will never cap the gusher after the wellhead. They cannot. That sort of leak is one of the most dangerous and potentially damaging kinds of leak there could be. It is also inaccessible which compounds our problems. There is no way to stop that leak from above. All they can do is relieve the pressure on it by opening it up (like a opening up a garden hose nozzle to slow a leak in the line). This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 ton.
What is likely to happen now?
Well...none of what is likely to happen is good. In fact, it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.
Eventually, even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the blow out preventer will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the blow out preventer, or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly, it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.
All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" -- The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. The very least damaging outcome, as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out a minimum of 150,000 barrels a day (about 6.75 million gallons) of raw oil or more.
All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.
The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens.
We are seeing the puny forces of man vs. the awesome forces of nature. We are going to need some luck and a lot of effort to win...and if nature decides we ought to lose, we will.
Can/would you please address this, Smokin’ Joe?
Okay. the short version:
Poppycock.
In explanation:
The only prospects I have seen drilled on abiotic oil theory produced from the investor's pockets--and nowhere else.
BP hasn't released the geological intricacies of the prospect, but they have said the producing formation is of Paleogene age, which is British for the American Paleocene, Eocene, and Oligocene periods, roughly the period from when the Dinosaurs went extinct to about 23 million years ago on the Geologic Time Scale.
That is not abiotic, if we recall the little fish kill which likely accompanied the impact which wiped out the dinosaurs.
There should have been an abundance of dead thingys settling to the bottom of that crater with the water that rushed in, and there are the organics to provide the oil.
Keep in mind that the Mississippi drainage system and others have been filling that basin with anything and everything which floats, can be suspended, or bounces along the bottom, and there has been a huge volume of sediment as well--along with sea level changes during ice ages. So there are plenty of organics in the system to produce oil.
I see absolutely no evidence that the oil is abiotic.
Wow, but the problem is there haven’t been any 65 million years. The dynos were here in significant numbers until about 1000 years ago. This is proven by the written historical records of europe and asia. They have far too many descriptions of their dragons attacking men for there to have been a distant extinction, and if the Earth were more than 10,000 years old the close proximity of the moon would have caused tides that would have rolled 40,000 pound boulders across the surface of the Earth that would have obliterated all life, animal and vegetable.
And all that obliterated life is the goo that oil forms from...
Nukes tend to make really big holes.
That’s the opposite of what is needed here.
My, you ARE ready for $10.00 gasoline.
Joe, somebody out there screwed up. There have been a lot of wells drilled out there that no one screwed up, where there was no blowout, no spill, no rig burned and no one got killed.
The drilling mud is the first line of defence.
Displacing the drilling mud with seawater and ignoring all the signs that the well was flowing despite supposedly being plugged was the screwup, and had those warning signs been heeded and the appropriate action taken, the BOP might never have been needed.
It wasn't the equipment that failed nearly so much as someone making decisions.
No one has a free pass to take short cuts and f**k anything up, and eleven people paid for that screwup, whether it was theirs or not, with their lives.
BP will be paying for quite a while, as they should...but not like those guys.
Actually not. Thanks for the charm offensive.
>>Poppycock.
...
>>I see absolutely no evidence that the oil is abiotic.
Thanks for clearing that up. ;-)
Think a little harder.
.
*ping*
sobering.
thx thx.
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