Posted on 04/07/2010 5:38:19 PM PDT by Bigtigermike
If Sarah Palin runs for President, then she will win the Republican nomination. The rally she is holding today with Michelle Bachmann is amazing, and Obama-like, in it's size:
More than 10,000 Republican faithful are expected to crowd into the Minneapolis Convention Center on Wednesday when Sarah Palin joins Rep. Michele Bachmann at a fundraiser and rally for Bachmann's re-election bid and the Minnesota state Republican Party.
Anyone who can draw 10,000 people to a rally in Minnesota--in early 2010, no less-- is formidable. In the specific case of Sarah Palin, it makes her virtually unstoppable.
National polling for the Republican nomination has consistently shown Palin in a roughly three-way tie with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. However:
1. Huckabee is unlikely to run, and his evangelical / born again base (virtually all Huckabee voters in 2008 were evangelicals) is a lot closer to Sarah Palin than they are to Mitt Romney. So, Palin will likely start ahead in national polls among declared candidates.
2. Romney's strength in 2008 was in caucuses, which are dominated by dedicated activists. Of the 11 states that Romney won in 2008, three were "home" states (MA, where he was Governor; MI where his father was Governor; and UT for religion), and the other eight were all caucuses. However, Romney isn't going to win many caucuses if he is facing a candidate who can draw 10,000 people to a rally in early 2010, not to mention what is likely a tarnished reputation among Republican activists after the health care fight.
3. Palin's grassroots strength will provide her with all the funding she needs, and also goes a long way to pre-empting any possible insurgent candidacy against her. This will especially be the case if Ron Paul runs again, since Paul can't win the nomination but would soak up pretty much all of the remaining grassroots energy on the Republican side.
4. Say what you will about Palin's ability as a campaigner, but if gaffes were going to make her unpopular among Republicans, it would have happened already.
If Sarah Palin runs for President in 2012, I have a difficult time imagining someone else winning the Republican nomination. While this is pretty good news for Democrats, as Palin polls worse against Obama than almost any other Republican (see also PPP polling), it is also pretty scary. A continually weak economy--which is very possible--could actually make her President less than three years from now.
Oh come on, I know you can do better than that. Unlike some people on this thread, you’re clearly an intelligent person. You just need to direct a little less of your mind to rhetoric and a little more to critical thinking.
The problem with the PalinBots is they are completely blind to the arguments against a Palin candidacy. Sure, some of those arguments are bogus, and they are good at spotting those, but some of these arguments are not, and they won’t even acknowledge these have merit (and that Palin might have to work on some stuff if she wants to win). If you want to be effective, it’s probably more important to recognize your weaknesses (so you can deal with them) than your strengths (which will become obvious anyway).
Thanks for calling it on that one - I agree. Her troll posts are predictable.
Sorry, I actually do very well at anything I can be graded on.
You aren't the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes to politics are you?
Palin's 18 year record in politics shows us that politics and governing and leading is what Palin does best, it made her the most popular Governor in America.
Palin is already the most positive force in the Republican party and has been for 20 months nationally. For 20 months Palin has stayed in the top three in front runner status sometimes first, sometimes second, sometimes third as they fluctuate, and is probably the current front runner among primary voters, she can definitely run for president, and most of us, including the owner of this site is praying that she does.
Sometimes I don’t know if you people can even take yourselves seriously.
Palinbots? Is that what you want to start doing, mocking and making derogatory names for Palin supporters here at freerepublic? People like Jim Robinson?
She was popular, yes, but so was Obama when he got elected. She quit when things heated up in the governorship, but I guarantee the heat she felt there is nothing compared to the heat she’d feel as President (just look at how gray Bush’s hair got in his eight years...), and that’s what worries me. There’s a big difference between being President and being mayor of Wasilla.
Haha, the only grades I’ve ever gotten have been good enough to get jobs where I’ve made more in a summer than you probably make in a year.
You can barely write complete sentences, so I’m not too worried about what “grade” you give me.
No disrepect to your post, but please don’t make Sarah change her hairstyle.
I’m guessing here that you mean going for something shorter and — let me blurt it right out — frumpier?
As a red blooded, hairy chested American male of the old school, it’s always depressing to see how women lop their tresses off once they reach a certain age and marital status.
It’s tantamount to saying “husband of mine, I no longer really care about looking good for you.”
Maybe that’s why I’m a lifelong bachelor.
Bottom line: Maybe one in 10 women actually looks good with short hair. Julie Andrews comes to mind among the stars I grew up with back in the day.
The other bottom line: It’s always a lot of fun to poke holes in tired old stereotypes. Conservative women are more beautiful — outside and inside — than liberal women. Why hide it?
Each of them ran and won the nomination.
As for Dole, no one really ran against him. In 2008, McCain was not considered the frontrunner.
This isn't about what will happen two years from now...it's about what's happening NOW.
THAT is unprecedented...as I recall Reagan had competition, from John Anderson, I think.
And...are you calling Palin old?
Well put!
It was a very astute political decision.
Why don't you explain why she quit?
Are you kidding me? Image is huge in politics, and men are told to change their image all the time if they want to succeed. Look at Mike Huckabee and his weight loss.
You really are ignorant, you use that Mayor line as though you know nothing about her political career, Palin stayed popular as Governor, not just when she was elected, Palin is popular now as the biggest name in Republican politics and bestseller of close to 3 million books in 09.
Being an anti-Palin troll just to mess with people as you are doing on this thread, might explain why you will not tell us your pre-retread, troll name.
They say that people run for the office for two reasons...they either want to do something, or they want to be somebody.
I know why she says she quit, and it was certainly a reasonable decision. But it wasn’t one that will inspire confidence in her ability to handle higher office the way it would have if she had stuck around, beaten her critics, and managed to be an effective and popular governor for another 2 years.
That is a vague post, what did you mean?
Being very popular with even a good segment of conservatives is not the same thing as being popular with a majority of Americans. Sure, Palin’s obviously popular, but there’s little evidence she’d appeal to a majority of Americans right now.
If you don’t recognize this you’re too dense to even discuss this with.
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