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Complexity Can Be Dangerous
www.stolinsky.com ^ | 02-22-10 | stolinsky

Posted on 02/21/2010 9:21:25 PM PST by stolinsky

Soon - if it hasn’t happened already - the lines will cross. Increasing complexity will cross decreasing time to master it. As a result, cars will accelerate uncontrollably, airliners will crash, our phones will reveal our location, and our health care will be managed by computers.

(Excerpt) Read more at stolinsky.com ...


TOPICS: Computers/Internet; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: complexity; computers; laws

1 posted on 02/21/2010 9:21:25 PM PST by stolinsky
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To: stolinsky

Skynet is becoming self aware.


2 posted on 02/21/2010 9:22:28 PM PST by LukeL (Yasser Arafat: "I'd kill for a Nobel Peace Prize")
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To: LukeL

Good! That’s more than a lot of people can say.


3 posted on 02/21/2010 9:29:28 PM PST by stolinsky
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To: stolinsky

The beating of a butterfly’s wings in a field in Montana affects cyclones in the Indian Ocean.

Complex Systems exhibit patterns of behavior differing from the designed behaviors as they become more complex.

*yawn* Chaos theory — still usable, but plumbed to its depths in the 70s.

Nothing new here.


4 posted on 02/21/2010 9:37:23 PM PST by freedumb2003 (Communism comes to America: 1/20/2009. Keep your powder dry, folks. Sic semper tyrannis)
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To: freedumb2003
The problem is that with more complex machines, more can go wrong with it. There is a reason why I like good old fashioned analog mercury thermometers vs digital ones, as long as the laws of thermodynamics and physics remain constant that mercury thermometer will be 100% accurate. However a digital one can be wrong if any of 100s of things go wrong.

Look at your car's engine, if your on board computer decides to mess with the ignition timing of your engine there is very little that can be done.

5 posted on 02/21/2010 9:43:09 PM PST by LukeL (Yasser Arafat: "I'd kill for a Nobel Peace Prize")
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To: LukeL
That's why the moon missions were so incredible. There were what, a million or so circuits in the spacecraft, and if 1/10 of a percent of the things went wrong, that was still 1,000 things. And yet, the astronauts went and came back safely. I agree with you about mercury thermometers. No school like the old school!
6 posted on 02/21/2010 9:48:48 PM PST by Othniel (Meddlng in human affairs for 1/20th of a millennium.......)
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To: stolinsky

A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly.

Specialization is for insects.

-Lazarus Long, Time Enough For Love


7 posted on 02/21/2010 9:53:48 PM PST by Bean Counter (I keeps mah feathers numbered, for just such an emergency...)
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To: stolinsky

That’s why I own a motorcycle with a carburetor and my furnace in my house has a manually opened pilot valve and NO BLOWER.


8 posted on 02/21/2010 10:26:04 PM PST by mamelukesabre (Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum (If you want peace prepare for war))
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To: stolinsky

Dr. Egon Spengler: Don’t cross the streams.

Dr. Peter Venkman: Why?

Dr. Egon Spengler: It would be bad.

Dr. Peter Venkman: I’m a little fuzzy on the whole “good/bad” thing here. What do you mean, “bad”?

Dr. Egon Spengler: Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light.

Dr. Ray Stantz: Total protonic reversal!

Dr. Peter Venkman: That’s bad. Okay. All right, important safety tip. Thanks, Egon.


9 posted on 02/21/2010 10:48:10 PM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: stolinsky

Heh...giddyup. ;-)


10 posted on 02/21/2010 10:48:18 PM PST by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt), NG, '89-' 96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote.)
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To: mamelukesabre

What motorcycles have no computer chip for ignition/controls? Never knew that. My son and I once discussed looking for vehicles not vulnerable to EMP.


11 posted on 02/21/2010 11:16:33 PM PST by Fee (Peace, prosperity, jobs and common sense)
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To: stolinsky

The motherboards in my dishwasher and range had to be replaced twice, and once in the washing machine - - all within the last 24 months. This is insane.


12 posted on 02/22/2010 4:55:56 AM PST by Salvey
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To: Fee

Anything with a magneto and breaker points. Something from the seventies or earlier with a kickstarter and the ability to run without a battery.

Dirt bikes were made a little later this way. Not all bikes with a kickstart will run without a battery. I think they call it battery ignition vs magneto ignition. Older honda motorcycles have the most reliable magnetos.


13 posted on 02/22/2010 9:34:50 AM PST by mamelukesabre (Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum (If you want peace prepare for war))
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To: stolinsky

Complexity is sometimes downright irrational!


14 posted on 02/22/2010 9:35:35 AM PST by Cvengr (Adversity in life and death is inevitable. Thru faith in Christ, stress is optional.)
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To: Bean Counter

I seem to remember a classical novel describing some 10 things every man should know for survival in the most remote of situations,..such as how to thread a needle, how to start a fire without a match, how to navigate by the stars, how to chop wood, how to fish, how to sail, (Morse Code?),...I forget if it was Treasure Island, Robinson Crusoe, Rudyard Kipling, or Mark Twain who authored it, or thousands of years earlier.


15 posted on 02/22/2010 9:49:37 AM PST by Cvengr (Adversity in life and death is inevitable. Thru faith in Christ, stress is optional.)
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To: Bean Counter

Question for Heinlein: I can’t do all of those, but I’m really good at pitching manure - can I get extra credit for that?


16 posted on 02/22/2010 10:26:50 AM PST by stolinsky
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