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30 Year Auction: A Solid "F"
The Market Ticker ^ | February 11, 2010 | Karl Denninger

Posted on 02/12/2010 7:01:32 AM PST by Cheap_Hessian

There's no other way to describe this:

Bad. Actually, let's go worse than bad and call it what it is - by any definition this is just one step off from "Failed."

Yield was way over where it was trading at the time, as you can see here:

The more-worrying factor here is that we've got this "mystery" direct buyers out here again taking nearly 25% of the offered amount (who is bidding for that undisclosed?) and another 11% taken down by The Fed for the SOMA account.

(Excerpt) Read more at market-ticker.denninger.net ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: auctions; denninger; fed; marketticker; ticker; treasuries; treasury
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1 posted on 02/12/2010 7:01:32 AM PST by Cheap_Hessian
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To: Cheap_Hessian

New York City in 1975 (default) was a terrifying dress rehersal for what is now beginning to the nation.


2 posted on 02/12/2010 7:04:55 AM PST by mwl8787
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To: Cheap_Hessian

Can someone dumb this down for me?


3 posted on 02/12/2010 7:09:47 AM PST by Minipax
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To: Minipax

I think it means nobody wants our debt.

Yet even with this Treasury had to pay up to get it to go and the bid-to-cover was anemic at best.

Given the Primary Dealer system we have in this country, any BTC under 2.0 is an effective fail. To get an auction that behaves in this sort of fashion, complete with mystery direct bidders and heavy SOMA (Fed) participation, yet Treasury has to pay up in the form of a significantly higher coupon is not a good sign at all.


4 posted on 02/12/2010 7:14:20 AM PST by TSgt (I long for Norman Rockwell's America.)
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To: Minipax

LOL...that’s exactly what I was thinking. Please someone dumb this down for us.


5 posted on 02/12/2010 7:14:30 AM PST by MsLady (If you died tonight, where would you go? Salvation, don't leave earth without it!)
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To: Minipax
Can someone dumb this down for me?

You beat me to the question. I'm hoping that someone can give us a little supporting analysis here. I think this is an important issue. I'm naturally suspicious of the Fed & Treasury monetizing our debt but need a little help interpreting the data.

6 posted on 02/12/2010 7:15:14 AM PST by InterceptPoint
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To: MsLady

There was less demand for Treasuries during the last auction meaning they sold at higher yields.

If this becomes a trend, we’ll be in heap big trouble.


7 posted on 02/12/2010 7:20:31 AM PST by NeoCaveman (we are so doomed (OTP))
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To: Minipax; Cheap_Hessian

It means the price of long term government bonds was in a steap decline until the Fed and a mystery buyer showed up to the counter. As the price of a bond declines, the yield (interest rate paid to the purchaser) goes up. Thus, there was little interest in the US Government’s bonds unless it paid a higher interest.

This has adverse affects for the economy for any number of reasons. Home loan interest rates go up relative to 30 year bond yields. Commercial loans, both for real estate and general bonding go up.

It introduces uncertainty into an already uncertain market.

Gold and lead my friend. Gold and lead.


8 posted on 02/12/2010 7:21:05 AM PST by Incorrigible (If I lead, follow me; If I pause, push me; If I retreat, kill me.)
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To: NeoCaveman

Please give me a little more info. They sold for higher. If it keeps up, why will we be in more trouble?


9 posted on 02/12/2010 7:25:01 AM PST by MsLady (If you died tonight, where would you go? Salvation, don't leave earth without it!)
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To: Incorrigible

Mystery buyer, Soros?


10 posted on 02/12/2010 7:25:47 AM PST by MsLady (If you died tonight, where would you go? Salvation, don't leave earth without it!)
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To: Incorrigible

Give me more info on why to buy lead??? Lead??


11 posted on 02/12/2010 7:27:19 AM PST by MsLady (If you died tonight, where would you go? Salvation, don't leave earth without it!)
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To: MsLady

Straw purchasers on behalf of the Fed or Treasury, I’d guess. A way of printing money from nothing.


12 posted on 02/12/2010 7:30:56 AM PST by bvw
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To: MikeWUSAF
"I think it means nobody wants our debt."

From December 17, 2009: China central banker says harder to buy U.S. Treasuries

13 posted on 02/12/2010 7:32:14 AM PST by Cheap_Hessian (I am the Grim FReeper.)
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To: MikeWUSAF
any BTC under 2.0 is an effective fail

It looks like the BTC here was 2.36.

What am I not getting?

14 posted on 02/12/2010 7:32:39 AM PST by ClearCase_guy (I was born in America, but now I live in Declinistan.)
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To: MsLady

I’ll dumb this down for you:

Remember the movie “Titanic” the one with Leonardo DiCaprio?? Remember the part where they are making love in the back of the Rolls Royce in the cargo hold? Remember hos the ship shook a little bit, just enough for people to look up and wonder “What was that?”

That, my friends, was today’s auction.

Have a great weekend (while you can).

J


15 posted on 02/12/2010 7:33:34 AM PST by johnnycap
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To: MsLady

Lead my lady in it’s most usable form. (That would be bullets or pellets)

:-)


16 posted on 02/12/2010 7:33:38 AM PST by Incorrigible (If I lead, follow me; If I pause, push me; If I retreat, kill me.)
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To: MsLady

The higher the interest rate, or yield, the more the federal government has to pay on its debt.

The more interest it pays, the more pressure is placed on the budget.


17 posted on 02/12/2010 7:35:13 AM PST by NeoCaveman (we are so doomed (OTP))
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To: johnnycap
That, my friends, was today’s auction.

Well said.
18 posted on 02/12/2010 7:38:33 AM PST by AD from SpringBay (We deserve the government we allow.)
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To: Minipax

(”mystery” direct buyers out here again taking nearly 25%) That mystery buyer could be the government buy back their own debt, i.e. printing money.


19 posted on 02/12/2010 7:38:53 AM PST by 2001convSVT ("Only Property Owners that pay taxes should have the right to Vote")
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To: MsLady; 2001convSVT
More information and opinions on direct bidders:

Putting Today's Record 30 Year Direct Take Down In Perspective

Is The Mysterious "Direct Bidder" Simply China Executing 'Quantitative Easing' On Behalf Of The Federal Reserve?

Yet Another Opinion On The Mystery Direct Bidder, Barclays Edition

20 posted on 02/12/2010 7:46:50 AM PST by Cheap_Hessian (I am the Grim FReeper.)
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