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Republicans back in the fold?
PPP ^ | January 5, 2010 | TOM JENSEN

Posted on 01/05/2010 6:41:48 PM PST by Jet Jaguar

One underplayed aspect of this year's elections that I think could make an impact is the return of disaffected Republicans who didn't even bother coming out to vote in 2008 because they were unhappy about the nomination of John McCain. They may have felt it didn't make any difference who they voted for then, but feel differently about things now that they've seen the impact of Democratic control in Washington.

On the Virginia exit poll 94% of respondents said who they voted for President last year and their responses average out to a 13.2% advantage for Bob McDonnell. Since McDonnell won by 17 points that means he won the votes of non-2008 voters- either new registrants or more likely folks who just decided not to turn out in '08- by a margin somewhere in the neighborhood of 80-20.

That fits in with what we're finding on a lot of our polling. Our last national survey found Barack Obama's approval rating with people who didn't report a 2008 vote at just 13% and gave Republicans a 42-15 lead on the generic Congressional ballot with them. We've found similar results on some of our race specific 2010 polls- a 56-15 lead for Mike Castle over Beau Biden, a 62-16 advantage for Michele Bachmann over Tarryl Clark, and a 40-27 one for Scott Walker over Tom Barrett.

We don't really know how many cranky Republicans just stayed at home for the last Presidential election but there are some preliminary indicators that they could account for 3-4% of the electorate this year and that's enough to make a big impact in some of the closer races.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 2009polls; mcdonnell; ppp; va2009

1 posted on 01/05/2010 6:41:48 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
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To: Jet Jaguar

I don’t think that many stayed home. I was less than thrilled about it but I did get out, choke back my bile, and pull the lever for McCain. He was pathetic and he was running against the messiah.


2 posted on 01/05/2010 6:46:27 PM PST by cripplecreek (Seniors, the new shovel ready project under socialized medicine.)
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To: Jet Jaguar

Don’t blame me. I voted. For Sarah. :)


3 posted on 01/05/2010 6:56:05 PM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (Save the Earth. It's the only planet with chocolate.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
Don’t blame me. I voted. For Sarah. :) Diana, you certainly weren't alone on that one!
4 posted on 01/05/2010 7:00:49 PM PST by rj45mis
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To: cripplecreek
"I was less than thrilled about it but I did get out, choke back my bile, and pull the lever for McCain."

I did the same, and all I got for it was a lousy sticker that read "I voted". It's still stuck high up on a support beam in my basement, where I angrily slapped it on that election night when I peeled it off my coat. I can understand the dislike for McCain among many people, but if they 'stayed home', look where it got us. Our nation will reap what it has sown in electing this president/CONgress, and we may find ourselves feeling it for generations. Look at what FDR did. We are STILL mired down in his socialist programs, without end.

Our future elected leaders MUST repeal and reverse what our government is doing during this time period as soon as they get into office. It should be item number one on their agenda. I don't care if they have to shut down and defund the government to do it, because it MUST be done. If they don't turn it all back, they should be voted out of office just as quickly.

5 posted on 01/05/2010 7:01:43 PM PST by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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If the people lead, they will follow.


6 posted on 01/05/2010 7:03:42 PM PST by Cyber Ninja (His legacy is a stain OnTheDress)
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To: rj45mis

:)

We’ll get there. The first female President, whether Sarah or someone else in the chute, will be a Republican. Or a Libertarian...if I live that long, LOL!


7 posted on 01/05/2010 7:12:23 PM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (Save the Earth. It's the only planet with chocolate.)
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To: cripplecreek
I was less than thrilled about it but I did get out, choke back my bile, and pull the lever for McCain.

Don't forget, we're all political junkies here. There are plenty of folks out there who don't care as much as we do. McCain was just the sort of candidate to inspire them to go have a root canal instead.


8 posted on 01/05/2010 7:12:26 PM PST by Nick Danger (Free cheese is found only in mousetraps)
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To: Jet Jaguar
I told someone today I thought the Republican message to the voters should be one of “Hey, you got yourselves into this mess, don't expect us to come along and bail you out now!”

IMHO, the voters owe conservatives an apology for falling for the old black magic of the liberal sales pitch. Things are really screwed up now and it will take a lot more to fix them than it would have to keep them from getting so out of hand. Until they are ready to accept that it was NOT the Republicans that let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac run amok, or George Bush who forced banks that had been solvent for decades to make sub-prime loans then all those who thought Obama, the Democrats and liberals were just the cat's meow can sleep in the bed they made.

I feel like the grandparent who has had to stand by and watch the grandchildren be spoiled rotten and then when they are absolutely uncontrollable the parent(s) come looking for solutions. Sure, the Republicans were not good stewards, but they certainly didn't run up more public debt in one year than the other team did in 20 years.

Given my druthers I would druther see those who are responsible and have railed against the foolishness that we've seen the last 12 months use their considerable skills to hang in there and let those who brought us Obama et al suffer.

I wish I could take some heart from the occasional indication that the worst is over, but far from it. I know we are like a family that has borrowed eight or ten times their yearly income and spent it in a few months. That works for the few months, but sooner or later the bills start coming due. And that's exactly where 2010 is going to find America after 2009 and the year of the throwing all caution and financial common sense to the wind.

9 posted on 01/05/2010 7:14:25 PM PST by jwparkerjr
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To: Jet Jaguar

I don’t blame anyone for not voting for McCain. I voted for Sarah.


10 posted on 01/05/2010 7:19:16 PM PST by pallis
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To: Jet Jaguar
is the return of disaffected Republicans

Uh oh, this is going to be a bitter pill to swallow for that certain subset of FReepers who get their jollies off of trying to spread conservatives out among as many pissant little third parties as they possibly can.

11 posted on 01/05/2010 7:39:46 PM PST by Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus (Conservatives unite behind conservative Republicans in the primaries!)
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To: Jet Jaguar
I voted Republicrat only for Sarah Palin.The next time I won`t vote for the lesser of two evils,not even if Satan himself is running against a McLoser clone.
12 posted on 01/05/2010 7:47:10 PM PST by nomad
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To: jwparkerjr

“IMHO, the voters owe conservatives an apology for falling for the old black magic of the liberal sales pitch.”

Not hardly. Conservatives owe the American people an apology for folding their tents and sneaking off rather than fighting. Conservatives who didn’t vote owe the American people an apology for failure to stand our ground and continuing to blast away. As I recall, the boozwah went something like this: “I’m going to stay home rather than help elect John McCain—he’s a RINO, and . . .” so on and so forth. Can ANYONE imagine a situation in which John McCain would have fed the American people to the wolves as Obama has done? So thanks, conservativer-than-thous-who-stayed-home-on-election-day. We owe our huge debt, the Obama-Reid-Pelosi health bill to BOTH you and the Obama Democrats. Now, you can apologize to US this midterm by getting off your high horses and help overturn Big Ears and his Congress.


13 posted on 01/05/2010 8:12:09 PM PST by righttackle44
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To: Jet Jaguar

I would not be bragging quite yet. Let’s see if the Republican wins Mass. If we win Mass, we are back, if not, then we have lots of work to do.


14 posted on 01/05/2010 8:12:33 PM PST by napscoordinator
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To: righttackle44

re: conservativer-than-thous-who-stayed-home-on-election-day

Actually I agree with you 1000%! But in my post I was addressing those liberals who are starting to see how wrong they were, and will now come clamoring to us conservatives to get their butt out trouble.

You are oh so correct in everything you say. But, I am hesitant to take those “send-them-a-message” conservatives to task at this point in the process. We need them to return to the polls and support the overthrow of this putrid regime. A lot of them are weird anyway, and human nature being what it is, they are likely to resent being called out for their role in the disaster and just dig in. Be nice to them now, we need them. We can deal with them after we’ve put out the fire.

Too bad your description for them is so long! I would love a bumper sticker that says “Hey! conservativer-than-thous-who-stayed-home-on-election-day boobs. How’s that message working out?”


15 posted on 01/06/2010 4:07:03 AM PST by jwparkerjr
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