Groundhog Day

Real Clear Politics ^ | September 8, 2009 | Tom Bevan

[Schnucki]

This just in from Gallup: the public is every bit as divided on health care today as they were a month ago. Meanwhile, yesterday President Obama spent part of his speech at the AFL-CIO picnic in Ohio making the case for health care - but in language that is virtually unchanged from the stuff that has failed miserably in his first seven months.

In many ways health care is to Obama what Iraq was to Bush. President Bush kept reciting the same points over and over until the public simply tuned him out and - even worse for a president - stopped believing what he was saying. The same seems true of Obama with health care. Another big speech seems unlikely to change the dynamic that has settled over this debate, nor will it be likely to move votes.

What could move votes is a change in negotiating tactics and the offering actual compromises (like tort reform) that could bring Blue Dog Democrats and Republicans on board. But Obama is in a pinch because making those compromises will cost him votes from the left.

So Obama faces a fairly stark choice: stick with the liberals and try to ram through a health care reform bill along partisan lines, or anger liberals by moving to the center and getting enough votes for passage with a more truly centrist and potentially bipartisan bill.

My guess is that he will do the former because 1) he cannot afford to lose his liberal base and believes he will have plenty of time (and a rebounding economy) to win back the middle and 2) his head, his heart, and his instincts are with progressives, not with centrists.

[ClearCase_guy]

It’s all for show. They go through the motions and pretend that we live in a representative democracy. But that’s all gone now.

[y6162]

I think he’s going to tell Congressional Dems to pass ObamaCare with or without Republicans. Go nuke.

He’s committing political suicide. Good.

[scory]

I tend to agree. It is a long time until the next election. The “Stimulous” payoffs mostly roll out next year. He has the media behind him to sooth and persuade the disgruntled masses. He will have all that time to get ACORN, unions, Moveon.org organized and ready to roll. He is as far left as any politician in the country and his base is rabid about jamming this crap through congress regardless of what any of the rest of the country thinks. He will roll the dice and go with the most extreme option available.

[vlad335]

“believes he will have plenty of time (and a rebounding economy)”

How is the economy going to rebound? What policies were put into place to effect this? The stimulis?

If the economy does rebound it would do so in spite of Obama’s policys.

[Buckeye McFrog]

He does not have the strength to stand-up to the Communist mobs who got him elected, and they know it. You can tell by the way he turns tail and runs whenever they float a trial balloon about moderation and the HuffPo gets up it’s hackles and roars at him. He will stick with the first option because they will pulverize him if he doesn’t...starting with Michelle.

[Vigilanteman]

There is a certain amount of economic rebound which is inevitable just because, at some point, inventories get exhauseted and durable goods wear out. ObaMao is no doubt counting on this sort of recovery and his economic gurus are doing their best to time it.

Unfortunately for the George Soros cabal, while timing market crashes is a simple matter of dumping financial papers and calling in fund holdings for cash, timing a recovery involves far more factors and far more players which are difficult for one cabal to control, much less time.

Clinton managed to do a little bit in the 1990's by talking the economy up, but the statements were backed by the credibility of an opposition congress which was serious about reigning in spending.

Obamao is much more of an idealogue than Clinton. Plus there is no possible way the Republicans can retake the Senate in 2010. Even retaking the house would be a long-shot, involving a shift of 40+ seats.