Historical Examples of Erroneous Health Care Cost Estimates; Don't Trust Those Government Forecasts

Carpe Diem ^ | 21 Aug 2009 | Prof. Mark J. Perry

[BGHater]

From the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) study "Are Health Care Reform Cost Estimates Reliable? History Shows True Costs Are Often Significantly Understated":

Since the end of World War II, major health care reform proposals have generally always cost more—sometimes significantly more—than the highest cost estimates published while the legislation was pending.

The chart above from John Goodman's Health Policy Blog illustrates the eight examples outlined in the JEC report (Table 1: By a Country Mile: Historical Examples of Erroneous Health Care Cost Estimates), including the Medicare DSH program (actual costs were 17X higher than first estimated), the entire Medicare program (actual costs are 9.17 higher than originally projected), etc.

[GOPJ]

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