"...lots of naval strike assets in the region...
I always appreciate a good 'fireworks display' on the 4th of July. ;)
Posted on 06/22/2009 5:34:05 AM PDT by jhpigott
Reuters has an article speculating what might happen with the North Korean ship Kang Nam. Latest news reports suggest the ship is bound for Myanmar, a country unlikely to abide by any United Nations resolution. No one really knows how this might unfold, but based on Obama's comments early last week, I think the ship will not be allowed to complete its journey. These comments in particular describe the policy.
Obama said that, in recent years, North Korea's provocations have been "rewarded" as Western countries offered fuel, food and loans in exchange for promises of good behavior that are eventually broken.
"We are going to break that pattern," Obama said after a White House meeting with South Korean President Lee Myung Bak. Obama told reporters assembled in the Rose Garden that North Korea "will not find security or respect through threats and illegal weapons." When China agreed to UN Security Council Resolution 1874, I think that pretty much doomed the regime. North Korea does not have the capacity to produce every type of ammunition necessary to conduct full scale military operations, and after the Soviet Union fell, North Korea looked to China to get ammunition replacements. That would appear to no longer be an option.
The question now is when North Korea is doomed? It is a good question, but my sense is China has informed the North Koreans that if they attack the South for any reason, the regime will fall. The 6 party talks were a failure in terms of their intended goal of stopping the North Korean nuclear program, but were a success in one regard. No one, including China, wants to fight over the carcass of North Korea. I do not see a scenario where China desires to assume control of the territory of North Korea right now, because should the regime fall and that becomes the scenario, whichever country performs that function is going to suddenly have a nearly 16 million person humanitarian mission on their hands. It could very easily cripple any regional economy, and likely would stunt the growth of China's economy.
I think the Obama administration is going to push North Korea a bit, and while the result is indeed quite unpredictable, the odds of a full scale war would not seem very high, although the odds of an incident may be. In other words, I think the Obama administration knows they have the ability to leverage some escalation control, and can test the regime a bit to get a better feel for the conditions of the North Korean military to sustain serious political pressure without the Chinese backing them up.
I don't think the USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) will be boarding the Kang Nam directly, but indirectly I fully expect the destroyer to get involved once another country does the initial seizure. I have a hard time believing that if a country like Singapore seizes the vessel, North Korea's response will be to attack South Korea. In fact, I'd bet China has already made it clear to North Korea that is not a legitimate option...
Which is why I believe escalation is coming.
For those who might be curious, as best I can tell the US has 3 Carrier Strike Groups, 1 Amphibious Ready Group, and nearly every forward deployed surface combatant in the Pacific at sea in good position to react quickly to a major military escalation by North Korea. There are also a large number of forward deployed USAF air power in Alaska for Northern Edge 2009. Additionally the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group and the Bonhomme Richard Amphibious Ready Group could put to sea very quickly if necessary.
The key statistic though is that the US has 33 submarines at sea, 61%, with 26 submarines on deployment, 48%. That is a very unusually high number of submarines on deployment and very important in the North Korean scenario, because North Korea does not have sophisticated sonar equipment to detect, much less to track US submarines, and can only fight submarines with minefields. I don't see a scenario where things escalate that far, but I do see the US Navy prepared for that scenario if North Korea miscalculates or overreacts.
Posted by Galrahn at 1:00 AM
ping
ping
I wonder how many Trident subs are cruising in the Sea of Japan?
Another good anaysis. Last time I checked, the NK ship was still due to dock in Singapore en route to Myanmar. If that still happens then Singapore would agree to an inspection of the ship. Would be interesting to see just how angry Kim will get then.
None. With the range of Trident they could probably hit North Korea from the pier in Washington. They'll be in the North Pacific somewhere, far from the cramped operating area of the Sea of Japan.
Great minds think alike. Yours is a little faster.
Does anybody have a time frame for all of this? It seems like the Kang Nam has been headed to Myanmar (which I call Burma as nobody knows where Myanmar is let alone is able to pronounce correctly) forever.
"...lots of naval strike assets in the region...
I always appreciate a good 'fireworks display' on the 4th of July. ;)
“We are going to break that pattern,” Obama said after a White House meeting”
Obama actually said these things? I hadn't read this before.
That is interesting....
Myanmar/Burma is close to India. Not a short trip as the ship has been hugging the Chinese coast on its way. Would need to navigate the Straits of Singapore and its expected to stop in Singapore to refuel.
I think China is telling Korea just the exact opposite of what you imagine, JMO.
North Korea warns of military drill off coast - Japan
TOKYO (Reuters) - North Korea has warned it will conduct a military firing exercise off its eastern city of Wonsan, Japan’s Coast Guard said on Monday, in a possible indication of a missile test.
North Korea, in an e-mail, said the exercise would take place between June 25 and July 10 within a 110-km (68 mile) range from Wonsan, Japan Coast Guard spokesman Shinya Suzuki said.
Looks like we may have an exact window for when they are planning to launch some missiles now...
Not that it’s going to happen. Nuke North Korea and the radioactive fallout is either going to hit Japan, South Korea, or China depending on the prevailing winds. I think that they’d all take a dim view of that.
speculation was btwn 7/4-7/8 so that appears pretty much right on
For old times sake, I’d rather see them use a Minuteman to hit NK, but that would probably involve overflight of Russia or China.
I gotta throw the flag on this statement. NK has very few naval craft that would even register as targets for an SSN. They have PT and PTG boats, which they will likely use in a mass attack and they have extremely small submarines for their special forces, which if they don't sink of their own accord will be nearly impossible for an SSN to locate.
The NK Navy is pretty much a non-issue, as is their Air Force. The issue is the vast number of artillery tubes and troops they have along the DMZ.
One of the reasons we pulled our troops back from the DMZ was to take away the NK option of easily striking just U.S. forces. However, they could still attempt such an attack.
What would the SK or Japanese response be to a limited NK attack against U.S. forces on their soil? Likely not war.
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