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Third Leg Falling In Crash Of 2009 / Derivatives
Allen L. Roland's Radio Blog on Salon.com via Four Winds 10 Blog ^ | March 3, 2009 | Allen L. Roland

Posted on 03/04/2009 8:45:37 PM PST by GoreNoMore

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To: politicket
Ping
21 posted on 03/04/2009 9:39:01 PM PST by 444Flyer (Don't beLIEve Obama.............................Never give up, never give in, never give out!)
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To: 444Flyer

I feel for the soldiers, they thought they were saving this country, but look what has happen while they were gone.

A sad coming home day, ashamed we all should be for allowing this to happen. We put those congress men in office and have done NOTHUNG to re-call their ineptness.


22 posted on 03/04/2009 11:06:25 PM PST by GoreNoMore
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To: Just mythoughts
"Can you explain who won 62 billion dollars yesterday if AIG lost it?"

It is MUCH worse than AIG just losing it and it going 'poof' into nowhere. AIG is paying that money out to Goldman Sachs, BofA, Barclays, Wells Fargo, UBS, Royal Bank of Scotland and so on.

Every last dollar being handed to AIG is paying the credit default swaps that AIG NEVER had the financial wherewithal to cover. It is just like if you buy homeowners insurance from a company that cannot pay any significant claims in event of a major happening like a hurricane. AIG never had the money to pay off even a tiny fraction of the money they insured. They leveraged all of it.

Why and how? Because it enabled Goldman Sachs and the rest of the big investment banks to lie to investors and sell them crap with AAA ratings, because it was insured by AIG.

All those monster investment houses would be belly up if THEY had to pay all the leveraged losses from all their stupid high risk ventures. That they all deserve to fail is no longer the point. They control the Fed, the Government and all of your and my monies. The Fed is and for the last 40 years has been run by past Goldman Saks executives. The whole system is for the Fed to give our money to AIG who then writes checks to pay the claims for all the nasty investment loses all these banks have run up. We have no say in the matter.

The Government (President, Congress and all the rest of the porky trough feeder) all love the power that a blank check gives them. The Fed has supported a blank check. Payback, and the reason it won't end until the US Dollar is dead, is that the government is totally into the power that an unlimited amount of in the red spending gives them. They can do ANYTHING at all that they want as long as they keep the Fed going, which in turn keeps all the investment banks and old money happy and collecting interest on the money it lends the US Government. Money that also never existed. (nice scam huh?)

Frankly, until it all comes down and we start over, we are all slaves to the system.
23 posted on 03/04/2009 11:15:20 PM PST by Borderline
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To: MaxMax

$10? dude... stop shopping in the liberal areas, you’re more likely to get defective goods

:)


24 posted on 03/04/2009 11:37:16 PM PST by sten
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To: sten
Rubber-5 Rubber-5, come in Rubber-5 ?

Rubber-five here, whats our status?

Rubber-5, there's a breach in your 5th rubber

Huh? hold on,
OMG, I've breached the threashhold and I'm in serial trubble!

Rubber-5, relax, pull back on your position and you should be Ok

Ack-knowledged, pulling out now!

25 posted on 03/04/2009 11:53:31 PM PST by MaxMax (RINO=RAT!)
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To: Southack
That's only true if the losing party has the cash to make the first party whole.

Think of the crooked land deals in the S&L days -- two conspirators buy a parcel of worthless swampland.

They sell it back and forth jacking up the price, then use it as collateral for a loan.

They default on the loan, and the bank is stuck with the (inherently, but fraudulently valued) swampland.

Now add to the scenario, that instead of a loan, the conspirators were promised, by the bank, an income stream from a set of other properties.

Guess what the income stream was?

The income from mortgage payments from yokels who bought McMansions on the swampland, which *they* couldn't afford.

*Everyone* has been trading fictitious paper wealth and using it to buy -- on credit -- luxury goods and services.

Now people are all realizing that the wealth was fictitious: but those who produced the luxury goods want *real payment* for their products.

And it just isn't there.

And the banks, having had their vaults filled with the toxic IOU's, won't lend nearly as easily as before to businesses or consumers. And certainly not to each other.

It's like musical chairs, except instead of one chair being removed, only one chair remains.

Guess what happens then?

Cheers!

26 posted on 03/05/2009 2:03:48 AM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: Wiseghy
Wait until the commercial property phase hits.

Cheers!

27 posted on 03/05/2009 2:04:40 AM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: grey_whiskers

ping


28 posted on 03/05/2009 6:36:18 AM PST by GoreNoMore
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To: GoreNoMore

Credit Default Swaps are a scam so big and so insane that even PT Barnum would have run away from them.


29 posted on 03/05/2009 6:38:45 AM PST by HamiltonJay
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To: HamiltonJay

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=aG0_2ZIA96TI


30 posted on 03/05/2009 6:44:20 AM PST by GoreNoMore
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To: GoreNoMore

Interesting part of the link.

The Board of Governors contends that it’s separate from its member banks, including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York which runs the lending programs. Most documents relevant to the Bloomberg suit are at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which the Fed contends isn’t subject to FOIA law. The Board of Governors has 231 pages of documents, which it is denying access to under an exemption under trade secrets


31 posted on 03/05/2009 6:46:34 AM PST by GoreNoMore
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To: grey_whiskers
"That's only true if the losing party has the cash to make the first party whole."

No, it's always true.

Derivatives can only move money between two parties. That's at most. Most times, no money will even move.

But no money is created or destroyed by derivatives.

Derivatives are economically neutral.

Derivatives are zero sum.

People who claim that financially neutral tools can destroy an economy do not understand basic economics.

Moving money, or not, between any two individuals creates no new wealth in the broader economy...and destroys no existing wealth, overall.

Thus, derivatives can neither boom nor bust an economy.

They are neutral.

32 posted on 03/05/2009 7:56:37 AM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Southack
????

IF party A is counting on party B to reimburse them for losses, and party B says, "I don't have the money to do this" I would think party A is up the creek.

Cheers!

33 posted on 03/06/2009 4:29:23 AM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: grey_whiskers

Yup, but the economy in aggregate doesn’t care if you have money (Party A) or if I have that money (Party B).

Moving the same money from Party A to Party B creates no new wealth, and destroys no old wealth.

Such a move is financially neutral to the economy. Oh sure, Party A and B care, but not the whole economy.

That’s derivatives. The economy doesn’t care about economically neutral actions.


34 posted on 03/06/2009 6:56:43 AM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Southack
What if *neither* party has the money?

This, I think, is the problem -- the insurers of the CDS instruments (for example AIG) were levered at, oh, say, 50-1.

Which means that with a 3% fall in price of the things they were 'insuring' -- they get wiped out.

Which means the people who were counting on them to insure them--have to eat the losses.

Which they weren't counting on.

Which means they have to liquidate *other* assets to make up the shortfall.

Which drives down the price of the other assets.

Which affects the capitalization ratios of other players.

Which means the new players are subject to margin calls.

Which means *they* have to liquidate.

Apply, lather, crash.

Cheers!

35 posted on 03/06/2009 6:43:35 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: grey_whiskers

The economy doesn’t care. Just because it impacts you doesn’t always mean that something impacts everyone else.

Whether I owe you money and can pay, or can’t pay, makes zero difference to the broader economy.

You just think that it *should*, but the total banking system will see the same level of deposits whether you have the money or me...be it nothing...no deposits...or something...some deposits.

I can owe you money. You can owe me money. Doesn’t matter to the broader economy. Same level of deposits in the bank either way, just from the accounts of different people.


36 posted on 03/06/2009 8:10:31 PM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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