Posted on 10/26/2008 11:19:08 AM PDT by Bill Dupray
All the hand-wringing about whether Obama can hold Pennsylvania - forget it, he's got it. Virginia? McCain - no question.
I was having dinner a night ago with a friend of mine who is a statistician for a well-regarded private polling company. They do some work for Republicans in California, but most of the work they do is for Democrats or Democrat-leaning operations (Unions, etc.). Anyway, her shop was retained to do a few Presidential polls for targeted states on behalf of a union so the union could decide where to spend their ad dollars for the last week. They did Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. After mocking the hell out of the voter id spreads used by Rassmussen, Zogby, etc. (and this is coming from a committed Dem who will be voting for Barry O) she said the results of their polling lead her to believe that McCain will definitely win FL, OH, NC, MO and NV. She says Obama definitely wins New Mexico. She said that Colorado and New Hampshire were absolute dead heats.
More . . .
(Excerpt) Read more at patriotroom.com ...
the winner of CO will win the election. Unless BO wins CO and Mac can get ME CD2 vote. Then it’s 270-268
But PA, if Obama wins here, it’s gotta be less than 2%. No way it would be a blowout.
VA, NC, OH, FL should all come into line based on the demographics. Unless you believe that Obama is running even with Mccain on rural voters.
As goes Maine so goes the nation. I had a dream about that in fact two weeks back.
Oh please Lord, let it be the first shock to the media’s subversion.
I’m not a public pollster by any means, but these are pretty much the same conclusions I’ve come to at this point. We’re going to hang onto Bush’s big battleground states (OH, FL, VA, NC, MO, IN) as well as NV, WV, and ND. We’re going to lose IA and NM to Obama. I strongly suspect we will keep CO, and I also think we will take NH, though I consider ME-2 much less of a sure thing. My main divergence is that I think we still have a fighting shot in PA at this point, and I think the polls showing Dear Leader with huge (+8, +10) leads in that state suffer from the same systematic flaws as the national level polling does.
M2-2 is a lost cause. I know. I live here and it’s all Obama....
I think id better contact the local McCain office and see what I can do for the next week and a half. Colorado HAS to come thru for McCain and Palin.
If this info is correct, I don’t think there’s any way McCain loses. His position will only improve over the next week.
Gotta disagree on the PA assessment. Too many people outside of Philadelphia who are angry with Murtha, angry with Obama, and angry with the democratic congress. I say PA turns red.
And then she said , and then she said , and then he said , and then i said. Can i get the she in qestion phone # . I need some solid football picks. Being she is so good with the future ans all..
McCain should send Gov. Palin back to NH, Colorado, and Maine before Nov. 4. Have her spend a couple of days in battleground states. St. Benedict Abbey laid it on the line this morning in Mass, and they rarely discuss politics except for abortion, although they pray for the President every day. We’re fighting Muslims, pure evil, and we’re praying our hearts out for the republic.
This statement is NOT borne out by the article. The Dem pollster states that Obama has about a 55% shot at winning Pennsylvania. That's barely better than a toss-up. That's far from "forget it, he's got it".
Maybe Dupree misunderstood and thought the pollster was saying that Obama had 55% of the Pennsylvania vote - but that's NOT what she said. Not at all. Check it out for yourself.
I agree. By the way the pollster's assessment of PA was that Obama has only about a 55% chance of hanging on to win there. That's FAR from "forget it, he's got it".
PA comes down to Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Philadelphia counties and whether or not McCain can keep the margins between 400,000-500,000 against Obama. (Kerry beat bush by 415,000 here)
If McCain can outperform Bush in Western PA, the Pit Suburbs, and Scranton/Wilkes Barre, then by all means he has a shot to offset Philly.
Paging Morgan in Denver, Morgan in Denver pick up...LOL
Give us the latest, dude.
“M2-2 is a lost cause. I know. I live here and it’s all Obama....”
Moose hunters love Barry, not Sarah? Or is the whole district now dependent on federal handouts?
LETTER TO DENVER MAYOR WRITTEN BY A FRIEND FORWARDED TO ME TONIGHT. THEY’RE ALL NUTZ!!! - VOTING TAKING PLACE ACROSS FROM WHERE OBAMA IS SPEAKING ON SUNDAY....AN OUTRAGE!!! - WHAT THE H#%& GOES ON IN DENVER?
To: MileHighMayor@ci.Denver.co.us, charlie.brown@denvergov.org
Subject: Special Sunday voting hours for Obama supporters!!!-—are you kidding me?
Date: Sat, 25 Oct 2008 03:03:57 +0000
Are you kidding me?——Denver election officials are opening the Webb Bldg. early voting site on Sunday JUST BECAUSE of Obama’s rally across the street!!!!!! Are they afraid that some of those supporters might not otherwise find their way to the polls to cast their votes by Nov. 4? I’m guessing “election officials” will have someone passing out ballots AT THE RALLY!!!! Maybe even helping voters mark the ballots!!! What the heck?-—why not save the voters the trouble....just have Obama’s campaign workers complete the ballots and deliver them to the election offices? Is this illegal? Or just appalling? In case the country hadn’t already heard of this disgusting, obviously-partisan decision in Denver, I’ve sent the RMN article to Sean Hannity at Fox News Channel....at the very least, Denver should be publicly exposed and humiliated...and I hope someone does so! Presently ashamed and unfuriated to be a Denver resident,
Linda
22 posted on Saturday, October 25, 2008 6:08:06 PM by janee (janee)
Obama rally prompts Denver to beef up Sunday polling site
Election officials are beefing up operations at Denver’s downtown early voting site in anticipation of a rush of voters attending the Barack Obama rally Sunday.
Obama is scheduled to speak at 11:30 a.m. at Civic Center, across the street from the Webb Municipal Office Building, 201 W. Colfax Ave., where early voting will be available from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. Sunday.
Polls also will be open Sunday during those hours at the Denver Elections Division, 3888 E. Mexico Ave., in southeast Denver.
City elections officials decided to add voting booths, staff and computers to the Webb building when they heard about the Obama visit, said spokesman Alton Dillard.
They haven’t worked out details yet but anticipate a huge increase in voters because of the proximity to the campaign event.
Elections staff are also working with other city agencies to work out security clearance and other logistical issues.
Dillard said his office isn’t planning to alter early voting capacity today in connection with John McCain’s visit or on Saturday because of Obama campaign marches to early voting sites. That’s because there are 13 polling sites with longer hours those two days, he said.
24 posted on Saturday, October 25, 2008 8:49:30 PM by mtngrandpa (Fighting the Insurgency at Home)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115193/posts
Pubbies are protesting the opening of voting places right across the street from a speech 0bama gave IIRC it was earlier this week and in NC
Are you saying Maine is a lost cause. Because some of us don’t know what the heck and M2-2 is?
We do know what an M-80 is.
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