Posted on 10/11/2008 5:15:01 AM PDT by PackerBoy
I have been worried about the upcoming presidential election, especially because of the recent polls suggesting that Obama is building a lead over McCain.
But my research here on FreeRepublic suggests there is reason for optimism. At this time time in 2000, major polls had Gore up 11% over Bush. In 2004, some polls had Kerry up 5% over Bush. We all know what happened.
I think this year it will be similar, if not better for the Republican candidate because I believe many who say they will vote for Obama (becuase it's hip or cool or fashinable), actually won't.
Anyone else feel this way?
But my research here on FreeRepublic suggests there is reason for optimism. At this time time in 2000, major polls had Gore up 11% over Bush. In 2004, some polls had Kerry up 5% over Bush. We all know what happened.
I think this year it will be similar, if not better for the Republican candidate because I believe many who say they will vote for Obama (becuase it's hip or cool or fashinable), actually won't.
Anyone else feel this way?
Fear not: you Yanks aren’t quite as stupid as the MSM and your enemies would like to think you are.
I see a McCain/Palin landslide: it is yours to take, but only if you don’t lose courage.
Hold on for grim death: it is going to be a wild ride, these next few weeks...
*DieHard*
I won’t give up hope till they swear the Obamination into the WH. And if Obmination gets it, I’ll still be clinging to my God, my Bible and my guns.
The sampling of over 13% Democrats and 21% Independents is all I need to know a poll is bogus.
Kerry Bush had close to the same number of Dems as Repubs. 2million more Repubs to be exact.
Albore and JF’nK sorta kinda had most of the demonrat base behind them and they still lost.
This election, there are a lot of Hitlery supporters and (D) rednecks that will never vote for the Zero HTIC (Head Thug in Charge).
Yes, because if you actually look at the internals of the so called polls they have skewed them much greater on the democrats behalf than ever before. These polls are a joke.
You do have a furious republican base, one that is truly fired up to vote for Palin and against Obama. They are terrified of what Obama will do to this country.
Shameless bttt
Two factors:
1) Don’t forget Operation Chaos, where in a number of states, Pubbie voters changed their registration to Democrat to mess with the Dem primary. Some of those operatives prolly never changed their registration back to Pub, but they won’t be voting Dem.
2) I think many lie to pollsters, particularly Pubbie voters, due to hatred for the media.
I put polled in quotes because it was the strangest experience I have ever had.
The first one asked to speak to the youngest member of the household that was eligible to vote. Since I was that person, I was asked what the "poller" said would be a few questions. The very first question was "Are you registered to vote in the upcoming election?" I answered Yes.
That is where the survey stopped! The "poller" (and she definitely described herself that way) said, "OK, Thank You for your time" and hung up.
I wrote that off as just some group (like ACORN, but I didn't get the name) lying about conducting a poll, and actually looking to register voters. I say this because I can not imagine the reasoning behind polling non registered voters. They just don't matter.
The next "poll" I was called about was last night. Again if was someone asking me "for a few minutes of my time to answer a few questions about the upcoming election." The first (and subsequently ONLY question) I was asked was who I was going to vote for in my Congressional district. The incumbant Steve Kagan(D), or the challenger John Gard(R). I answered with John Gard (R). The next statement was "OK, Thank You for your time".
What type of polls are hanging up when they get an answer they obviously don't like? I didn't catch the name of either organization, but I am sure they weren't the "big" ones, Gallup, Rasmussen, etc. so I am not worried about the outcome, but it just raised red flags about the other polls out there. Are they just looking for dems or unregistered people to participate? and why?
In normal years polling is impossible and with the economic crisis this is catching butterflies. McDole should hammer Fannie/Freddie and say he will fight corruption.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
Ignore the polls, shut up and vote! (is what I am telling my friends, family and colleagues.)
Sounds great. Link to data?
“At this time time in 2000, major polls had Gore up 11% over Bush. In 2004, some polls had Kerry up 5% over Bush. We all know what happened.”
Bttt
Chris Matthews infuriated me last night. I know I should not be watching him. He showed the clip of the man at the McCain rally calling Pelosi, Reed, Obama etc hooligans. Matthews, being the snob he is, insulted everyone out here by calling them crazy nuts or something to that effect. He tried to say that Rush was whipping conservatives into a frenzy. They must be really afraid. He doesn’t realize that we are whipped into a frenzy because the media refuses to look into Obama. We are frenzied because of the likes of Matthews, not Rush.
Chris Matthews infuriated me last night. I know I should not be watching him. He showed the clip of the man at the McCain rally calling Pelosi, Reed, Obama etc hooligans. Matthews, being the snob he is, insulted everyone out here by calling them crazy nuts or something to that effect. He tried to say that Rush was whipping conservatives into a frenzy. They must be really afraid. He doesn’t realize that we are whipped into a frenzy because the media refuses to look into Obama. We are frenzied because of the likes of Matthews, not Rush.
Here is where I found this info:
Gore 11 pts. over Bush in October 2000 - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2102429/posts
Kerry 5 pts. over Bush in October 2004 - http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2102429/posts
Maybe someone who is good with that link thing can make these "live" links.
I found the info here on FreeRepublic by searching "Gore Bush Poll" and "Kerry Bush Poll".
“At this time time in 2000, major polls had Gore up 11% over Bush. In 2004, some polls had Kerry up 5% over Bush.”
—please cite your sources. believe me - I want to believe it but i just don’t remember GWB being significantly behind at any point in the final month.
The 2000 info came from CNN’s website: http://archives.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/05/tracking.poll/index.html
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