Posted on 10/06/2008 4:53:15 PM PDT by Laissez-faire capitalist
I have seen the bogus polls, and I do not even read them.
Will backfire. Blacks will not go to the polls if they think O has already won.
Sometimes, I get discouraged, but then I come to “Free
Republic”, and then I see so many lovely Americans, who love their country, and their freedom, and then I am able to get up and fight on. I love the people who pray for our nation and our people.
All I know is that I’m usually surprised on election day.
they ususally are wrong..
that I sense a strong surge for the McPalin ticket and that we have visual data that shows us the FRENZY for McPalin( okay, Palin).
We do know Sarah is drawing huge unprecedented numbers to her rallies, her coffees, her anything, that this is unheard of for a VP nominee let alone a Pub following 8 yrs of poor leadership from a Pub president. We do know the RNC and compliance fund SEEMS to be gathering LOTS of money....
We also know that sampling of the population no matter what the pollsters say is just a shot in dark and if you make any variance in the people you call....during the day?..black?..illegal?...welfare?..muslim?..stupid?....that the polls are going to be skewed....
that is what I say...
we have plenty of historical evidence where who "should have" won gave the concession speech.
read em' and weap, but pray and pass the ammunition anyway.....
besides, I found out today that my husbands boss is going to Medagorje(sp)tomorrow and hes' taking a plain envelope with my husbands deepest request: asking God not to let evil take over our country.....so its in the bag people....we are going to win....Alleluia.!!..(but I chided my hubby for not naming names...he says GOD knows!)
This is all setting up like Harry Truman beating Thomas Dewey. In that day, the polls were all skewed for Dewey and the pollsters stopped polling in September-October 1948 and what happened - Truman won! In the last 30 days Truman went on the offensive through whistle stops on the presidential train.
The priest who started Medagorje was a fraud. The Vatican has even denounced his “shrine.”
"weighted to their correct share of the national population"It says they've oversampled black people and then interpolated the results down to the correct proportion to get a more accurate result. The reasoning is likely that a large proportion of black people will vote Obama and pollsters want an accurate estimate on the percentage to sell to news agencies. All polls to this to a certain extent - they changed their results based on those polls to try and even out the demographics and biases in the sample. One typical example is because comparatively young people (18-35) have home phone lines and pollsters can't poll cell phones, they have to extrapolate to get a more accurate prediction from those who do answer. They'll do the same thing based on registered Democrat supporters vs. Republican supporters and so on. The Bradley effect is potentially an issue, but it's impossible to say what, if any, impact it will have. This will be controversial here, but I think a greater potential issue than the Bradley effect will be what happened to the UK Conservative Party in 1992 - they got a narrow win after polls showed a landslide for the Labour Party and it has been suggested that people were embarrassed to admit to pollsters they were voting Conservative after 12 years of power when faced with an impending Labour landslide.
The pollsters ARE accounting for the bradley effect. What they are do is as “would your NEIGHBOR vote for a black man?” Then when they answer, THAT is accounting for the bradley effect.
If they don’t put this stuff out there now, the can’t cry “it wuz stollin” later. That will lead to race riots (the backlash will be the Patriot Riots as coined by someone on the Fox blog I saw) and the media will have something else to cover for weeks and weeks rather than have to utter the President McCain and Vice President PAlin?
As people of faith, we know every prayer helps.
Actually..Wilder won..but it was a lot closer than the polls showed..they had Wilder winning in a landslide..
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