Obama/Biden 217 McCain/Palin 216 Toss Up 105

Real Clear Politics ^ | 11 SEPT 2008 | Real Clear Politics

[davidosborne]

WOW... what a shift... and it is only going to get better for Sarah Palin

TOWARD VICTORY !!!

[newfreep]

I agree. I wonder how RCP could have both IN and OH as toss-ups.

I'm in OH and even though we reaped the ills of a RINO governor (Taft), I firmly believe OH will be solidly M-P.

Ditto Indiana next door.

[JohnnyZ]

I wonder how RCP could have both IN and OH as toss-ups. I'm in OH and even though we reaped the ills of a RINO governor (Taft), I firmly believe OH will be solidly M-P.

RCP averages all the polls, even the oddball ones. In Ohio, for example, Rasmussen said McCain +7 while Quinnipiac said Obama +5. The Q poll has a poor track record.

[caveat emptor]

Øbama

Nice. Extended html?

[Publius Valerius]

We lose a 269-269 tie. I read somewhere on FR this morning that Dems will likely have 27 state votes to 21 Rep ones (with Kansas and 1 other state tied).

It's not that straight forward. I've heard different numbers on the number of states that Democrats hold (I've heard both 26 and 27), but remember that it is the NEXT congress that counts the votes, so the current breakdown isn't all that interesting.

Nonetheless, let's assume that the delegation breakout remains at 27 democratic states. Two of the democratic delegations are North and South Dakota, and both states have only one representative. These are states that McCain will likely win by 20+ points. The Democratic delegates in North and South Dakota would likely feel tremendous pressure to cast ballots for McCain, given his likely enormous win in their home states. If both ND and SD flip, no person has a majority of states.

Also remember that per the 12th Amendment, the Senate chooses the VP. The Senate is currently 49 Democrats to 48 Republicans (Sen. Thomas of Wyoming died, but will likely be replaced with a Republican this election) with two independents. One is Bernie Sanders, who will certainly vote for Biden, and the other is Lieberman, who will likely (though not certainly) vote for Palin. The chamber would be tied 50-50, and the Vice President, Dick Cheney, would be called upon to break the tie. Palin would be elected Vice President, regardless of who is made President in the House.

But let's assume that the House can't put aside its squabbles to elect a President--then, on January 20, you'd see John Roberts swearing in Palin as the 44th President of the United States.

Certainly this is a unlikely scenario, but not one outside the realm of possibility.

[RabidBartender]

Now I remember where I read the article: electoral-vote.com.

One of the subjects the guy brings up is: “Any Democrat voting for John McCain would no doubt be punished swiftly and vigorously by Nancy Pelosi, which is probably worse than potential punishment from the voters in 2 years, by which time other issues may dominate the news.”

As for the Senate, projections are grim for it to be evenly split with so many Republicans retiring this time. So we’d have the same thing - Dem Senator Ben Nelson of a dark red state casting one of his state’s votes for Biden. Or does each state get 1 vote like the House?

[NMR Guy]

It’s over for Øbama.

EVERY trend is Republican, it’s not going to be close, Obama will be lucky to win 10 states.

Don't get me wrong - I wish that was true, but it's definitely not over for Obama. In fact, Obama/Biden still have the advantage. To win McCain/Palin will need to hold on to Ohio and Florida, which is doable. It's unlikely they will get MI or PA. (NH makes no difference either way because of the way the electoral vote math is working out.)

McCain will need to hold NV (likely) and get one of either NM or CO. In a close race, NM seems to often go to the Dems and is plagued by lots of fraud, so McCain's chances in the end may very well come down to CO. Unfortunately, CO is going the wrong way in the polls this week and RCP has Obama up by 2+. We need a strong push in CO, or a fraud-proof majority in NM, or Obama will win.

[Publius Valerius]

Any Democrat voting for John McCain would no doubt be punished swiftly and vigorously by Nancy Pelosi, which is probably worse than potential punishment from the voters in 2 years, by which time other issues may dominate the news.”

Maybe, but this is the House, not the Senate; the potential "punishments" are a lot fewer in might be available in the Senate.

I didn't mention that there are also a lot of faithless elector issues with a 269-269 tie that could result in a President other than the four candidates currently running for office. No matter how you slice it, a tie is a disaster that would make 2000 look like a walk in the park.

[Publius Valerius]

Or does each state get 1 vote like the House?

My understanding is that every Senator gets one vote.

[AdvisorB]

My father-in-law, and his mother are dyed-in-the-wool Florida democrats, and have never supported a GOP POTUS standard-bearer ever. Not Nixon, not Reagan, not Bush41 or 43, but they’re supporting Senator McCain. As a matter of fact, they sent money to McCain.

On a personal level,I’m shocked by this, but it tells me that something is happening out there that the pollsters may be missing, in that many democrats are extremely unhappy with fauxbama. I know this is just an anecdotal microcosmic phenomenon, but I think it speaks volumes about the race down here in Florida.

[Boiling Pots]

Colorado concerns me.