[Freedom_Is_Not_Free]

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[Attention Surplus Disorder]

I am just about as bearish as Roubini. But IMO it is important to not allow yourself to get too bearish, both as a matter of psychological survival and financial survival. That is sometimes difficult for me, as I tend to be pessimistic. Roubini has a pretty good understanding and I respect his views. I DO expect the US to enter a classically-defined recession, and I expect it to last 12-18 months. Historically it "rhymes" to have a first-year recession upon election of a new prez.

But there is also a possibility that it could get significantly worse, for all the reasons Roubini cites. There are a lot of negative factors in this particular perfect storm, and what I find MOST troubling is: it is not at all clear to me whether our leadership is looking to rip off or outright destroy the last bits of flesh of this country or to actually perform some constructive, corrective action.

Maybe we have to hit a hard bottom, "AA style" before this country can get on its feet again. If that's the case, then we do. Maybe this generation needs to have its "generational challenge" to separate the prevailing brain dead jerkball culture we have going.

I can't say. It's easy to get overwhelmed, we have some very serious stuff going on.

[bruinbirdman]

"In a typical US recession equity prices fall by an average of 28% relative to the peak. But this is not a typical US recession; it is rather a severe one associated with a severe financial crisis. Thus, equity prices will fall by about 40% relative to their peak. So, we are only barely mid-way in the meltdown of stock markets. "

Lots of generalities in the article.

Brinker has touted total market mutuals for ever. I don't listen much to him anymore. Has anyone heard him give a sell sign yet?

It is important to be equity specific, IMO.

Anyone heard from "professional" lately.

I can agree with the 28% pullback. When did Roubini write this, after the US market was already down 20% across the board?

Emphasis has been on financials and real estate for more than a year now. Don't invest in them. Don't put new money in equities. Sell financial mutuals or any that have more than 10% in financials.

IMO - The U.S. economy will not see a recession this year. More like 3% GDP growth.

yitbos