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"In a typical US recession equity prices fall by an average of 28% relative to the peak. But this is not a typical US recession; it is rather a severe one associated with a severe financial crisis. Thus, equity prices will fall by about 40% relative to their peak. So, we are only barely mid-way in the meltdown of stock markets. "

Lots of generalities in the article.

Brinker has touted total market mutuals for ever. I don't listen much to him anymore. Has anyone heard him give a sell sign yet?

It is important to be equity specific, IMO.

Anyone heard from "professional" lately.

I can agree with the 28% pullback. When did Roubini write this, after the US market was already down 20% across the board?

Emphasis has been on financials and real estate for more than a year now. Don't invest in them. Don't put new money in equities. Sell financial mutuals or any that have more than 10% in financials.

IMO - The U.S. economy will not see a recession this year. More like 3% GDP growth.

yitbos

Lots of generalities in the article.

Ah - yeah - it's a one page summary of what Roubini has written about in considerable detail earlier and elsewhere. So ... does it being a summary make it wrong?

Brinker has touted total market mutuals for ever.

What does Bob Brinker have to do with this?

It is important to be equity specific, IMO.

If you're saying that other economic, financial, or market analyses are wrong, because they are not equity specific, I disagree.

Emphasis has been on financials and real estate for more than a year now. Don't invest in them.

Roubini is stating that the bear market is widening, past just financials and real estate. He spells out why. His reasoning seems solid.

IMO - The U.S. economy will not see a recession this year. More like 3% GDP growth.

Have you been listening to Brinker too much ;)?

IMO, you're wrong. We shall see.

I posted this the day Nouriel Roubini wrote it. Yes, the markets were already down 20% from peak. By late 2006 he was already predicting a bear market by the end of 2007. His prediction was a few months early. Now that he is seeing the depth of the losses and the extent of the liquidity crisis, he has revised his estimate to 40% off peak.

I find his prediction very plausible given the unique severity of the bank losses, lack of transparency, lack of willingness to lend, increasing difficulty of Joe6Pack to qualify for a mortgage, and forecasted foreclosure rates.

I’m becoming a broken record buy I honestly believe we are in a recession, the government numbers notwithstanding. More financial analysts seem to be coming to the same conclusion. I may end up eating crow, but I’m standing firm to my belief we are in a recession. I have been officially completely wrong so far, and we will see if that remains the case looking back.