Posted on 05/18/2008 1:03:31 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
Recent polls are showing trouble for Obama. His numbers are tanking at an unprecedented rate. As of late, a poll from ccAdvertising shows that Obama's numbers are way worse than any one of us thought. This company is mostly used by the GOP, but they have shown to be more accurate than other polls in the past. Still, I don't use these numbers in my map, but there's a point to be made after you see these numbers.
From May 1, 2008 through May 5, 2008, ccAdvertising completed a survey to a combined total of 90,000 homes in California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania (10,000 homes from each state) extracted from the ccAdvertising database.
Results for McCain vs. Hillary and McCain vs. Obama. Scores are how much Hillary or Obama are ahead of McCain. +is a win for Hillary or Obama. -is a loss.
Hillary Obama Difference (for Obama from Hillary) California +15.82% +12.88% -2.94 Colorado -5.44 -1.98 +3.46 Florida -11.46 -25.52 -14.06 Illinois -2.29 +9.23 +11.52 Missouri +3.97 -10.61 -14.58 New Hampshire -5.9 -6.67 -0.77 New York +7.88 +1.31 -6.57 Ohio +1.02 -18.18 -19.2 Pennsylvania +7.51 -5.95 -13.46
From what I'm hearing on the ground and from Nebraska and Colorado is that there is ZERO chance of Obama carrying these. For some numbers, look at the Feb caucus where Obama took it 68% to 32%. In the May 13th non-binding primary, Obama won 49% to 46%. Either his numbers are tanking horribly or caucuses aren't a valid way to gauge voter preference. Some may argue that non-binding primaries don't mean anything. That same argument may be used for polls. But these are people that came out even though they knew it did not count. That leads one to believe that these people have firm commitments for their candidates. When people do things even when they don't have to, that shows true intentions. And you can bet they will vote in November.
So what is going on with Obama's numbers? No doubt they are tanking. I can no longer put CO, NM or FL in Obama's column. It's simply not realistic. And I never did put NE in Obama's column because I knew that was not realistic. If I put it in his column, I'd have to give Hillary the same chance as Obama. This goes for VA, NC & SC as well where they are polling identical in one case and nearly identical in others. I have doubts with Obama's capability to carry OH & PA, but we'll leave them alone for now.
Let's take a look at IA and WI.
On April 27 & 28, Obama was polling with these numbers against McCain.
IA: Obama vs. McCain: 49% vs. 41% (Obama +8%) (Research 2000) WI: Obama vs. McCain: 47% vs. 43% (Obama +4%) (U of WI)
On May 7th for WI and May 15th for IA.
IA: Obama vs. McCain: 44% vs. 42% (Obama +2%) (Rasmussen) WI: Obama vs. McCain: 43% vs. 47% (McCain +4%) (Rasmussen)
Obama went down 6% in IA and went down 8% in WI.
Yes, some of this can be due to different methodologies. But note that Rasmussen regularly polls Obama higher than reality. If you'll also note that there have been no recent polls in FL for a very long time. This is no coincidence. There are indications that neither Democrat has a really good chance of carrying that state because of the delegate removal fiasco. Hillary has a long shot. But Obama has no shot at all.
Let's see what Obama's map looks like today.
(more at source)
This is your best case map, but I wonder about NM, IA, WI, and VA.
NM and IA I agree...but no way Obama wins VA against McCain.
Hillary could beat McCain in VA though.
Bttt
I used to hang out at an all-night diner about 5 or 6 years ago. Most of the clientele were middle aged white blue collar men, mostly Union, mostly auto worker types.
Listening to these guys talk, there were only two things they hated more than Republicans. Black people, and Muslims.
Lotsa guys like that in PA and OH.
Furthermore, it’s gonna hit like a ton of bricks when the Dems realize that Obama lost because of racism...when they see that it was racist DEMOCRATS that didn’t vote for him. Let’s see them blame THAT on the GOP...
(I’m sure they’ll find a way...)
I suspect the same thing will happen in Detroit.
Obama is not only polling badly in Pennsylvania but has fallen within the margin of error in New Jersey and New York. If he can’t carry New York and New Jersey, he’s toast.
I’m not convinced that Obama can take New Jersey.
I still see it as a 2-3 point win for Barry, but if NJ is called for McCain early in the evening, the election is over.
One might think so, but the 'rats have a potentially bottomless capacity for self-deception. That's why they are 'rats after all.
I think that the Demwhit fight may go down to the convention. I hope this fight opens the eyes of moderate Democrats and they leave the party. I fear that Denver will take some damage in the process.
That would be something.
>but the Copperheads were loyal Democrats too.
and outright nuts.
I don't think that's all that difficult. For the first demographic, circulate pictures of those Obama supporters with Che Guevara Cuban flags to shore up the Cuban vote and McCain's compromise stance in illegal immigrants, while unpopular with conservatives, could help him with this demographic, too. As for the Koreans and Indians, bring in Bobby Jindal to campaign for him.
We really need to thank Rush and all members of “Operation Chaos” that “bloodied up” Obama. Without OC this would have been over long ago, instead look at what has come to light about BHO that would have remained in the shadows.
Looks like WI will come over from the dark side. I think Obama is screwed.
While I definately see PA going for McCain, I see Obama taking NJ by 2-3%...
...sorry, disagree...Obama takes PA by 2% and NJ by 5 or more...never, never underestimate the power of Philadelphia to dictate to the PA legislature, including cheating...this election will be razor thin, though if HIlary were in it she’d beat McCain easily, winning both FL and PA, and contending in OH...
We really need to thank Rush and all members of “Operation Chaos” that “bloodied up” Obama...
...exactly what did el rushbo do to ‘bloody up’ Obama...
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