2008 Presidential Electoral Vote Projection - 5/13/08

Electoral Projection ^ | May 13, 2008 | BrianinMO

[blogsforthompson.com]

Here is the 2008 Electoral Vote Projection Map and State Poll Average Chart for Tuesday, May 13, 2008. . . .Check out a new feature added here at Electoral Projection. The National Poll Average Chart (above) will now break down the polls from the last 50-days by polls that use: Likely Voters; Registered Voters; Random Sample of Adults. You can always find the chart at the bottom of the page. I have noticed that polls using "Registered Voters" or "Adults" rather than "Likely Voters" seem to always have Obama doing better. The chart bears that out. McCain actually leads in the average of Polls using "Likely Voters", but Obama leads in polls using "Registered Voters" or just "Adults" who may or may not be voters. Key an eye on those numbers as the campaign wears on. What do you think about this discrepancy?

[Question_Assumptions]

The state-by-state shows Obama getting more than 50% in very few places and most not higher than 52%. That’s not good for Obama.

[ConservativeDude]

wow, breaking news, it all comes down to Ohio!

(though...interesting that MI is in a toss up category. That’s gotta hurt Obama!)

[taxcontrol]

My quick assessment showed that the published numbers are based on a 2% margin for toss up. In other words, only when there is 2% difference between the two candidates, does the state count as toss up. What is interesting is what happens if you expand that number to 3 percent.

................2% ..3%
McCain .249 249
Obama ..237 228
Tossup ...52 ....61

[Retired Greyhound]

This is easy: Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, PA go to McCain.

Obama squeaks out Michigan (McCain has done himself no favors with all the global warming crap). Barack also takes Wisconsin.

McCain wins. Done.

[GulfBreeze]

Elect John McCain Ping

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This is a promising map for John McCain in November. I don’t believe that it’s 100% accurate but it is useful.

[devere]

Obama has one advantage. If the election ends in a 269-269 tie, the likely Democratic House of Representatives will elect him President. This would happens on this current map if McCain carries Ohio and Obama carries the other tossup states.

[TornadoAlley3]

[CholeraJoe]

I just don’t see Obama losing every southern state. One of them will go his way, possibly NC or GA with 15 votes.