I think he already has...
Posted on 05/01/2008 7:39:20 PM PDT by Lonesome in Massachussets
First, the bad news: the inner solar system is unstable. Given enough time, Jupiter's gravity could yank Mercury out of its present orbit.
Two new computer simulations of long-term planetary motion — one by Jacques Laskar (Paris Observatory), the other by Konstantin Batygin and Gregory Laughlin (University of California, Santa Cruz) — have both reached the same disturbing conclusion.
Says Laughlin, "The solar system isn't as stable as we'd thought." Both teams have found that Jupiter's gravity can increase Mercury's orbital eccentricity over time. Mercury's path around the Sun is already nearly as elliptical as Pluto's. But Jupiter can make Mercury's orbit so out of round that it overlaps the path of Venus. A close encounter between them could send the innermost planet careening off wildly.
"Once Mercury crosses Venus's orbit," Laughlin says, "Mercury is in serious trouble."
So is Earth.
At that point, the simulations predict Mercury will suffer generally one of four fates: it crashes into the Sun, gets ejected from the solar system, it crashes into Venus, or — worst of all — crashes into Earth.
To call this catastrophic is a gross understatement. Such an impact would kill all life on our planet. Nothing would survive. By contrast, the asteroid that doomed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago was likely just 6 miles in diameter; Mercury is 3,032 miles across. The last time an object about that size hit the Earth, the resulting debris formed our Moon.
Think we'll escape the chaos by fleeing to Mars? Think again. Even Mars might not be safe. In one of the computer simulations, the Red Planet was tossed into the cold of interstellar space.
Now, the good news: there's only about a 1% chance that Mercury will go crazy before the Sun bloats into a red giant billions of years from now. "If you're an optimist," says Laughlin, "then you say the glass is 99 percent full."
Laskar, who discovered that Mercury could go wild back in 1994, will publish his paper in Icarus; Batygin (who's still an undergraduate) and Laughlin will publish theirs in The Astrophysical Journal.
Personally, I'm scrambling to "CHANGE" my lifestyle to help make it happen. /SARCASM!
I think he already has...
You do realize that in the morning, if your lucky, you are going to awake from your dreams, right? ; )
In the year, 2049
You'll do anything to stay alive
Even barbeque your bride
In 2049
Duck and Run!
Great, Velikovsky was right...
October 22nd. ... around tea time ....
One must ask: ‘What about Uranus?’
Only if you drop that compact flourescent light bulb while forced to replace your incandescent bulbs. Then watch out!!! All heck is going to break out!!!
-PJ
Quick! Where can I buy Mercury credits?
Nah. He'll just build another agency like Department of Mercury Security and hire TSA types to keep an eye on the planet.
Code Red for the "Red Planet" will be appropriate.
"Mercury poisoning?!"
That thar article has a wee bit of conjecture in it...
So is Earth.
Oh no! What about Uranus?
“What about myanus?”
Oh brother.
CHORUS
BRIDGE Is this a Russian conspiracy, no it's just idiocy Is this a Chinese burn I gotta dinosaur for a representative It's got a small brain and refuses to learn Their promotion's so lame
IOW, about the same odds of everyone on the planet Earth winning the lotto simultaneously.
Not at all. The odds against six billion people (choosing independently and randomly) picking the same, say six out of 80 numbers, and then having those numbers selected in a random drawing is less than one with fifty-million zeros after it, effectively impossible. (Assuming you grant everyone one entry.) One hundred to one against events occur every day. Would you get on an airplane that had a one in a hundred chance of crashing?
If it does occur, it will be millions of years in the future. The process would be slow, but inexoriable. Each Mercurial year, Mercury's orbit would become a little more enlongated. Assuming Earth is inhabited by a technologically advanced civilization at that time, they would see it coming millions of years in advance.
If we change our cars, and lightbulbs, and give up toilet paper, etc. the world as we know it IS changed for the worse.
Moving into a cave won’t improve “the world” but it’ll regress us to living like cavemen or those in the third world. And that’ll be a change for the worse.
We have it too good. Better live a little less well off, because well it’s shameful to be better off in America.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.