Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
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Posted on 12/26/2007 6:02:45 PM PST by MitchellC
Anybody who checked Drudge today will have seen that there is a "shock poll" that puts Hillary Clinton 15 points in front of Barack Obama in Iowa. The polling company that produced the poll is ARG, and this is what it had to say about its results:
Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among women 38% to 21%, which is unchanged from a week ago (Clinton 36%, Obama 23% among women). Obama has lost ground among men to John Edwards and Clinton. Among men, Clinton is at 28%, Edwards is at 27%, Obama is at 16%, and Joe Biden is at 11%. A week ago, Obama was at 27% among men, followed by 21% for Clinton and 19% for Edwards.
This poll might indeed be a trend - the first sign of a swing back to Clinton among Iowa Democrats. Unfortunately, we will not be able to know for a few days - as polling companies presumably suspended operations over Christmas. I have a few caveats that I would put in place on this poll - just a few basic warnings about why we should not over-interpret these results.
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[snip]
3. There are other elements of the poll that just don't scan with me. For instance, it shows Fred Thompson at 3% and Alan Keyes and Duncan Hunter both at 2%. ARG has shown Thompson low over the last few weeks - so this would not be a consequence of ARG's internal sampling method thrown off by the holiday weekend. But its last two samples estimated Thompson's support well below the rest of the Iowa polls. And 3% just does not pass the "smell test."
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
ARG polls are complete garbage.
Ping!
And anyone who runs around FR using an ARG poll to smear the one true conservative with a shot at it all ought to be banned, in my humble opinion.
You're right, of course. ARG has historically been about the worst predictor of them all. Shoot, even Zogby is more accurate.
That’s the worst poll i’ve seen yet...The RCP article points out that not only did Clinton and Obama have statistically significant changes, but so did Huckabee and Paul...The ARG Inc poll shows Paul at 11%, ahead of Thompson and Giuliani...
The methodology of this poll was all wrong- so wrong that ARG would not even reveal the demographics of their sample group..They weighted first time caucus goers ahead of previous caucus goers, and they conducted their poll at the worst time, when people are getting ready for an imminent Holiday and are not focusing on politics...
It’s a bad poll which casts a shadow on some of the other polls with more legitimate methodoligies.
ARG,Inc...American Research Group inc.,....will have to remember that one and add it to the questionable list...
Fredipedia: The Definitive Fred Thompson Reference
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I would assume the type of people who would sit around answering polling questions on Christmas Day and Christmas Eve instead of spending time with their family would be the type of people who would support McCain, Guiliani or Paul over Huckabee or Thompson.
Hmm...are they anticipating vote fraud? I don’t see how first time caucus goers could be expected to be more likely to participate.
Not that I agree with the results of the poll, but it was from 20th-23rd, not 24th & 25th.
Did Romney really vote for Tsongas? I believe so.
Up to $60,206.
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