Posted on 02/07/2007 5:27:59 AM PST by areafiftyone
Rudy Guilanni has broken out in front of the field of GOP candidates. He will soon only be able to see Senator John McCain is his rear view mirror. It had to happen.
Both men seemed to be way ahead of the rest of those who have been seriously talked about on the Republican side of our national political debates.
Nevertheless, both men came to the race dragging steamer trunks full of skeletons.
McCain has a nasty habit of putting his name on awful bills that no real Republican should vote for, let alone sponsor then have the nerve to try to get our party’s nomination. He says things that make many conservatives want to push a cream pie into his face. In short, most conservatives harbor a very strong animosity toward McCain.
A recent poll on Freerepublic.Com had four choices:
John McCain, Rudy Guilanni, Mitt Romney and “I’ll stay home”. McCain finished with just 4%, fully 20 points behind “I’ll stay home”. Freerepublic, as we know, is a very accurate reflection of true grassroots conservative opinion. Four percent on a Freep poll is deadly for anyone.
Because conservatives feel so strongly against McCain personally, it would make no difference if he proposed dropping a nuclear bomb on North Korea. It’s McCain conservatives don’t like. Nothing will change that.
Rudy Guilanni is a different story. People like Rudy very much. The question always has been: do they like him enough to over look his skeletons of being pro partial, birth abortion, pro gay “marriage”, anti second amendment and being questionable on border control.
Most conservatives have always felt that if Rudy can straighten up, act more conservative, and mean it, they would be willing to meet him somewhere in the middle on most issues. That would enable him to break this race wide open and gain the kind of edge George W. Bush enjoyed by being the only candidate far in advance of the 2000 election.
What McCain has done
John McCain has come out in strong support of the troop surge, has voted properly on it and worked hard to bolster support for the president on this issue. He still has problems. This issue will dry up and go away very soon as Senate Democrats fearfully back away from a determined Mitch McConnell on this one. Beyond that, he still has McCain - Feingold and McCain - Kennedy hanging around his neck. Not good.
What has Guilanni done.
Because he did not take the bait and challenge Hillary Clinton last November, Guilanni has no bad votes to have to explain away. He has bad prior positions that he will be repeatedly hit over the head with to be sure, but no “black letter” votes to dodge.
He has promised to appoint only Scalia, Roberts, Alito or Thomas like Supreme Court Justices. That puts the ball back into the grass root conservative’s side of the net. If they want to believe him, such a statement will do much to repair his problems on certain social issue positions.
He can now respond to questions about partial birth abortion, being anti second amendment and being for gay “marriage” with a strong clear eyed answer that will be “enough” for more and more conservatives as the specter of a Hillary Clinton presidency grows in the coming months.
That’s how Guilanni wins the nomination, now how does he win the election.
When his promise to appoint constitutionalists judges counteracts his second amendment problems, and science makes his shockingly callus support for Partial Birth Abortion moot, he will be in a very good place. The fact that the states are one by one killing the issue of “gay” marriage will complete Rudy Guilanni’s political rehabilitation.
That leaves the War on Terror and the porous border problem for Guilanni to stake out positions on.
He has stepped up on the troop surge. He is for it. That issue is his, and because of 9-11, no one can claim better War on Terror credentials than Rudy Guiliani.
He is at least as tough on illegal aliens as any other serious candidate. While the reality is that he is actually not very tough on border control, he loses no ground to anyone on this issue.
That leaves the obvious comparison to Hillary Clinton. Make no mistake, she will be their nominee.
Would Hillary Clinton appoint constitutionalist judges? No. Score a point to Guiliani.
Would Hillary Clinton be any different than Rudy on Abortion? Not much.
But neither could really do much about abortion in any case. George W. Bush hates abortion but even with a GOP congress and nominally conservative Court he has been able to do essentially nothing about abortion. No points to either.
Gay “marriage”; is fading so fast that it will be off the radar by next year. It makes no difference what Rudy thinks about it. Neither he, nor Hillary Clinton nor anybody else can revive gay “marriage”. Score no point.
How about the War on Terror? Guilanni wins that one hands down.
Clinton has already said she would surrender Iraq on Jan. 20 2009. She is against the troop build up and regrets her yes vote.
Guilanni is stronger than anyone on the national scene on the War on Terror.
He is pro build up and would be a strong leader in the WOT.
On the border problem there is at least a chance that Guilanni could be convinced that porous borders are part of the WOT. Clinton, on the other hand, would welcome illegals and register them as Democrats. Point to Guilanni.
Finally: guns
Yes both are anti gun, but neither would have very much power to do much about it. Based on the beating they took over guns in 2000 and again in 2004, the Democrats have backed off for now on gun control. These days Wayne LaPierre of the NRA has to work very hard to find things to whine about to justify asking for more money.
Does this make Rudy the less of two evils? You bet. Will I be voting for him? You bet? In our system we regularly get the lesser of two evils to vote for. If we don't vote for the lesser of two evils we guarantee getting the greater of two evils. It really is as simple as that.
BTW, you look very handsome in your picture! Good hair, LOL! : )
There's a lot of blame to go around.
They are both realists, in spite of their public personae. In spite of that, I do find that information somewhat surprising....and welcome.
The results of which looked like classic schizophrenia! LOL....
If you sit down with any republican congressman, they will admit that many of the mistakes made were due to attempts to placate a split party base, and that never works....never-has, and never will.
Base politics is deadly, and something to avoid in the future. We cannot win with the current situation, and nobody who is familiar with political history, expects to win.
Unless and until the republican party base hates democrats more than it hates it's own members, we will continue to give away elections.
I don't think this will be fixed by 08, or 2012. I think we will have the first opportunity in the 2014. The Democrats have it now, and they are not going to go away easily. It will also take years to repair the base. Years of Democrats.........
I hope I'm wrong on the length of time, but hell, I may be too optimistic. I rarely have erred on the pessimistic side.
And.....as long as you consider anyone who does not hold a rabid anti-abortion stance a liberal, no republican will be elected.
You illustrated a point that have made for some years now. Our margins were too thin to alienate any group anywhere on any topic, yet you managed to do just that.
Now, we will be forced to change the game board, in order to recoup losses, and begin to win elections on both a State and National basis.
You did not see it coming, despite the warnings given. You still deny it.
This is why things will change.
There no longer is a choice and the door was always open for compromises, but that window closed when the election was lost.
The party base is defunct. It was damaged beyond repair, and now it must be reorganized. It will be reorganized.
You keep touting Reagan, but Reagan would not agree with what you have done, and what you are doing now. You continue to violate Reagan's 11th commandment and you cannot win elections in that way.
I hope one day that you will understand what you have done, but I won't hold my breath.
Right backatcha, buddy. You're shortsighted unto blindness.
Those who try to be all things to all people end up being of no use to anyone.
And you can quote me on that.
People like you have been running this show since 2000.
Thinking back, who did they let on stage at the national convention? No one but a bunch of stinking RINOs.
Who has money flowed to, primarily? RINOs.
Sorry, dude, but the Schwarzeneggar/Giuliani/Romney GOP is going nowhere. Even you admit it. You're under the grand illusion, though, that you can build a party without conservatives. You're dead wrong about that, but let's say for a moment you're right? Of what possible use is a second evil party with no principles, trying to be all things to all people?
The only possible answer to that question is that it would give a certain group of people a certain measure of power. That's it. It does nothing to restore and defend our free republic.
But, you could care less about that, obviously.
Wrong again.....
The show, as you phrased it, was very loudly and aggressively taken over by the Right wing social reformers after the 2000 election. They claimed victory by virtue of their participation and began to push the moderates and anyone not complying with their principles out to the curb. They continued and accelerated this sort of thing in 2004, where they once again claimed the mantle of victory for Bush.
They way I see it, you were invited into my Home, and you trashed the place, leaving damages that you refused to compensate for, or repair. You will now receive the fruits of your labors.
Enjoy! I don't know exactly what the scenery will look like, after the change cycle completes it's work. I wish I had the vision to see it. I have tried, but it is not yet clear to me.
One thing is absolutely certain, and that is the fact that the new arrangement within the base will be very different. The meaning of the word Republican, has been sullied beyond measure, and this little factoid is what has me wondering how we will overcome this.
But I say safely say that you won't be invited into my house again. We have elections to prepare for, and candidates to develop. We have unity drives to create and compete with others doing the same, and do not have any more time to waste on the silly and useless social tinkering that has so pissed off the general voting public. Unfortunately, many of these people have found a home in the Democrat party, where they hide the fact that they were once Reagan Republicans. I think we can bring them home, but the Home must be cleaned up and remodeled.
It will be interesting......That is for sure.
Your entire premise falls on the fact that conservatives had little of the power you claim for the last seven years. The White House political operation, together with most of the leadership in Congress, consisted of those who are very good at paying lip service to conservatism, but seldom practice it. Thanks for playing, though.
You are a real piece of work...
You chastise congress for appeasing segments of the base, yet you are blind to the fact that your segment was the loudest and the recipient of more than half of the appeasements you criticize.
What really pisses you off is that the other whiners got any at all!
That is the definition of the "Base politics" that I have explained countless times over the past four years.
The problem is in your mirror! Take a good long look. Then take a aspirin and call the doctor to fix your understanding of politics.
I understand you perfectly. Been dealing with your type for a very long time. You might be able to fool some, but not me. I know that galls you, but you can always fall back on the Maalox.
Rudy stopped the destruction of New York City and cleaned it up. That was no small accomplishment. No other candidate on either side can claim the real executive administrative accoomplishment and leadership.
In my mind, his accomplishments sailing into the wind of NYC liberal jewish gale tells quite a tale. He did it.
The antis will scoff but they are just blowing smoke.
By the way, till he loses, Newt is my man. Mike is second.
The Democrats are the greater enemy and people must remember that. You are absolutely right. For the most part I find the divisions in the base woefully upsetting.
Very thoughtful and interesting insights CH. Certainly worth much consideration. Thank you for the post.
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