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North Korean Nukes: Kim Jong Il's Chess Gambit
The Inside Straight ^ | 10/14/06 | vanity

Posted on 10/14/2006 8:17:41 AM PDT by genefromjersey

Some folks breathed a sigh of relief when the media announced no radiation had been detected following the North Korean nuclear tests.

Others,including a very knowledgeable correspondent,were not that impressed with the announcement, and explained why.

(You probably won't see this elsewhere !)

(Excerpt) Read more at insidestraight.typepad.com ...


TOPICS: Military/Veterans; Miscellaneous; Politics
KEYWORDS: explanation; nuketest; radiation

1 posted on 10/14/2006 8:17:42 AM PDT by genefromjersey
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To: genefromjersey; TigerLikesRooster
A VERY interesting read. Would also explain why Kim's fireworks show on our 4th, raining rockets down on a spot of ocean, had some method amongst the madness. "Take notice, Navy, don't drop anchor here."

Further, my contention is that "the smaller the yield, the more sophisticated the device" - another thing to give us pause. Yet the ill-informed press is trumpeting "no radiation escaped, so was it a nuke? No need for sanctions here!" Well, I'd ask them, "in an underground test, is radiation supposed to leak??? How can you take comfort that the test went as designed?"

Do not discount the possibility that Kim was / is acting under orders and is allowed to run his own "Neverland Ranch" to indulge his fantasies while appearing bizarre to the outside world. What should he care? He's getting his! Meanwhile, certain other nations can conduct their real research in plain sight. After all, there are plenty of stolen designs from the 1990's to test out and sales demos to conduct.

2 posted on 10/14/2006 8:47:09 AM PDT by NonValueAdded (Prayers for our patriot brother, 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub. Brian, we're all pulling for you!)
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To: genefromjersey

The leftwing in south korea has been steadily declining for awhile now.


3 posted on 10/14/2006 8:53:54 AM PDT by monkeywrench (Deut. 27:17 Cursed be he that removeth his neighbor's landmark)
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To: NonValueAdded

Excellent comment !


4 posted on 10/14/2006 9:29:03 AM PDT by genefromjersey (So much to flame;so little time !)
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To: NonValueAdded
After all, there are plenty of stolen designs from the 1990's to test out and sales demos to conduct.

Designs are one thing. Being able to manufacture it to spec, then assembling it properly are 2 other factors.

You may be right (that this is a physically small warhead, small enough to fit a Taepo-Dong 2), but I tend to believe that the easiers bomb to manufacture (for a first-timer) is still 4X to heavy for that missile to loft.

5 posted on 10/14/2006 9:42:06 AM PDT by Tallguy
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To: NonValueAdded
Would also explain why Kim's fireworks show on our 4th, raining rockets down on a spot of ocean, had some method amongst the madness. "Take notice, Navy, don't drop anchor here."

Targeting a Carrier Strike Group, or an Amphibious Ready Group would require some pretty fancy real-time intelligence -- even when using a Nuke. I don't think that is possible for the Chinese, much less the NK's.

6 posted on 10/14/2006 9:45:53 AM PDT by Tallguy
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To: genefromjersey
no radiation had been detected

Whatever grand essay has been developed in the rest of the article is immaterial since radiation has been detected even though Japan says they have not detected radiation.

7 posted on 10/14/2006 9:50:14 AM PDT by RightWhale (Repeal the law of the excluded middle)
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To: RightWhale

Gee, I'm glad you were able to grasp the rest of the story without reading it !


8 posted on 10/14/2006 9:52:47 AM PDT by genefromjersey (So much to flame;so little time !)
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To: genefromjersey

Just read the excerpt. If there is something significant in the rest it will have to scroll across the screen or won't be read.


9 posted on 10/14/2006 9:59:45 AM PDT by RightWhale (Repeal the law of the excluded middle)
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To: Tallguy
But we tend to assume everyone is starting from scratch, from the top of the same learning curve. That is a critically flawed assumption to make! I realize life is not a Clancy novel but that's not to say there wasn't a firm technical underpinning to Clancy's nuclear yarn. Precision machining equipment (along with everything else) has advanced an incredible amount since Fat Man and Little Boy. Add that fact that our national laboratories have been leaking like a sieve and my conjecture is not implausible.

There are lots of reasons to discount the threat as not imminent, like your other point to me that targeting a carrier group is not an easy thing. True, but IMHO there's a lot of puckering going on as the number of years before we really gave to worry has shortened considerably. There is no joy to be had.

10 posted on 10/14/2006 10:03:26 AM PDT by NonValueAdded (Prayers for our patriot brother, 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub. Brian, we're all pulling for you!)
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To: RightWhale

Not really.


11 posted on 10/14/2006 10:09:08 AM PDT by bvw
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To: bvw

Thanks. I don't follow links, mainly because I am on dialup and some of those pages bust the system. If something is worth bringing up, somebody will bring it up and comment. Maybe. Or not.


12 posted on 10/14/2006 10:11:53 AM PDT by RightWhale (Repeal the law of the excluded middle)
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To: NonValueAdded

I think we're in basic agreement over the fact that we need to question our assumptions. I tend to be skeptical that the Chinese would give the keys to their nuke designs to the NK's. I don't know anyone else that would do it either. This is not to say that the Chinese aren't taking political advantage at our discomfort.

I think that basically China wants to control the territory of NK, but recognizes that the Kim-regime is not long for this world. If Kim gets a bomb - it vastly complicates things for the Chinese too.

My guess is that Kim is a 'Dead-Man walking'. China is going to take him out via assassination/coup. I think there has already been a few attempts (witness the expoding trains).


13 posted on 10/14/2006 10:12:26 AM PDT by Tallguy
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To: RightWhale

NK be Mordor.


14 posted on 10/14/2006 10:14:45 AM PDT by bvw
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To: Tallguy
I tend to be skeptical that the Chinese would give the keys to their nuke designs to the NK's.

Since it took them 30+ years to steal them from us and a lot of patient progress doing so, not to mention running restaurants in Little Rock with take out greens in black satchel cases -- they are not about to give much but Joe Wilson style tea parties to Kim-chee.

15 posted on 10/14/2006 10:18:09 AM PDT by bvw
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