[NonValueAdded]

But we tend to assume everyone is starting from scratch, from the top of the same learning curve. That is a critically flawed assumption to make! I realize life is not a Clancy novel but that's not to say there wasn't a firm technical underpinning to Clancy's nuclear yarn. Precision machining equipment (along with everything else) has advanced an incredible amount since Fat Man and Little Boy. Add that fact that our national laboratories have been leaking like a sieve and my conjecture is not implausible.

There are lots of reasons to discount the threat as not imminent, like your other point to me that targeting a carrier group is not an easy thing. True, but IMHO there's a lot of puckering going on as the number of years before we really gave to worry has shortened considerably. There is no joy to be had.

[Tallguy]

I think we're in basic agreement over the fact that we need to question our assumptions. I tend to be skeptical that the Chinese would give the keys to their nuke designs to the NK's. I don't know anyone else that would do it either. This is not to say that the Chinese aren't taking political advantage at our discomfort.

I think that basically China wants to control the territory of NK, but recognizes that the Kim-regime is not long for this world. If Kim gets a bomb - it vastly complicates things for the Chinese too.

My guess is that Kim is a 'Dead-Man walking'. China is going to take him out via assassination/coup. I think there has already been a few attempts (witness the expoding trains).