600 Park Avenue
Monongahela, PA 15063
www.IREY.com
Posted on 05/19/2006 8:11:38 AM PDT by Coop
...[u]nseating an incumbent in the House is always difficult. Unseating a 32-year incumbent is harder still. However, Murtha may be up for a "Daschle moment" - a high-profile defeat earned by running far to the left of one's constituents. To start with, we should take a look at the voting results for the counties within the 12th district for the 2004 Presidential election:
2004 Presidential voting results, counties within Pennsylvania 12th:
Greene County:
Bush 7,786 (50%)
Kerry 7,764 (50%)
Fayette County:
Kerry 29,129 (53%)
Bush 25,045 (47%)
Washington County:
Kerry 48,225 (50%)
Bush 47,763 (50%)
Westmoreland County:
Bush 100,087 (56%)
Kerry 77,774 (44%)
Cambria County:
Bush 34,048 (51%)
Kerry 32,591 (49%)
Indiana County:
Bush 20,254 (56%)
Kerry 15,831 (44%)
Armstrong County:
Bush 18,925 (61%)
Kerry 12,025 (39%)
Overall:
Bush 253,908 (53%)
Kerry 223,339 (47%)
The counties in the district have a clear Republican lean. Of course, the district does not contain the entirety of these counties because of the 2000 gerrymandering, but that gerrymandering was carried about by a Republican controlled legislature, and the results are generally agreed to have favored Republicans. For this reason, without having a more detailed set of data for the voting by precincts within the 12th, I'll stick to the assumption that Murtha's district has a Republican lean in national elections...
This Pennsylvania district is rural, and if it has been following national trends at all, is solidly for strong enforcement of the borders against illegal immigration. Unfortunately, I do not have polls available to show this, but if rural voters in Virginia were willing to vote out incumbent town councilmen over the issue, rural voters in Pennsylvania may be inclined to do the same thing. And as luck would have it, Murtha voted "nay" on HR4437, the Border Protection, Antiterrorism, and Illegal Immigration Control Act sponsored by Sensenbrenner. If Irey can succeed in making this an issue in the campaign, it may prove a major weakness for Murtha, especially since it seems to contradict his stated concern for national security and ties him to the very poorly received national illegal immigration demonstrations.
In sum, Murtha is beatable, despite the advantages of 32 years of incumbency. On the two major issues of the day, the war and immigration, he appears to be running far to the left of his constituents, and now because of his national media presence, they know about it. I have not seen any early polls taken on the Irey-Murtha matchup so my arguments are based on inference from other data, but I believe my assumptions can stand up to scrutiny. This is a campaign RedState can get behind and have a reasonable chance of success at. When the benefits are as great as unseating a Democrat hack like Murtha, the price of tapping a few keys to blog for Irey seems quite small!
Whatever it takes to draw one's interest! :-)
No! It is interesting, he is finally starting feel the heat of his past subversive acts of sedition thanks to the internet.
Yes, I stand by my numbers for the PA-12 (which are based on those compiled by Polidata and published by Michael Barone). The county voting results given by Red State do not exclude the portions of the counties that are outside of the district lines. Check out the map of PA-12: http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/pdf/congdist/PA12_109.pdf
BTW, the district was created by the GOP legislature to be a safe district for the powerful Murtha but to be competitive in an open-seat situation later on in the decade (making the CD more Republican would have made it more difficult for the GOP to win in the PA-04 or PA-18), but Murtha's recent leftward tilt and irresponsible comments have made the district winnable right now.
It's encouraging to see that Diana Irey is being helped by campaign funds being generated by the efforts of yourself and others here at FR. It is truly a worthy cause.
Although I consider her support for our military and the WOT the most important reason to support her, her stand on lower taxes and family values ranks high also.
I look forward to helping in any way I can in spreading the word about her here at FR and in the media and aiding her campaign financially.
Coop, I have to say, for me Murtha is a Godsend. I wondered how I was going to get publicity for my new book, "America's Victories: Why the U.S. Wins Wars . . . ." when all the talk was immigration, and out steps Murtha.
There is another factor. Diana Irey is a credible candidate, but she is badly underfunded. Anyone who can afford to financially support her should do so.
LS, I think it's laudible that you've written this book.
What would be another great developement would be if someone would set up a "STOP JOHN MURTHA" web page, complete with a link to the Diana Irey For Congress website's campaign contribution page.
I'd be happy to contribute to Irey. I have a Hayworth stub in my "to be paid" box. But Murtha is an idiot.
Say (insert lightbulb here) any chance you'll do a book signing in JOHNSTOWN, PA? We can kill two birds with one stone!
Borders! Borders! Borders!
Does Irey support deporting all 12 million illegals out of here and putting land mines on the border? The Tancredo Fan Club on FR demands it :)
So far, nothing scheduled in PA, but you never know.
auh2orepublican knows his stuff and has the skinny:
"BTW, the district was created by the GOP legislature to be a safe district for the powerful Murtha but to be competitive in an open-seat situation later on in the decade (making the CD more Republican would have made it more difficult for the GOP to win in the PA-04 or PA-18), but Murtha's recent leftward tilt and irresponsible comments have made the district winnable right now."
Answers my question and Murtha does look beatable. Freepers of the PA-12th, help the country to see the LAST of Jack Murtha.
"How did Bush perform in the 12th District?"
Thanks.
Excellent.
Nail his azz...Just like when the Dems were having a tizzy about recouping the meal allowance for the wounded in the hospitals. The same exact policy was in place when I had a small hospital stay back in 81...On check out you pay the meal tab...
When Teddy Kennedy was demagogueing, I couldn't help but think the SOB probably wrote the law requiring the silly system.
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