Dershowitz: Face It - Iran Will Get the Bomb

Little Green Footballs ^ | 4/24/06

[areafiftyone]

Dershowitz: Face It - Iran Will Get the Bomb

You may disagree with Alan Dershowitz that the Iraq War was a mistake (I do), but his coldly realistic analysis of the Iran situation is convincing and disturbing: We can’t attack Iran. (Free registration required. Hat tip: Allah.)

Face it. Iran will get the bomb. It has already test-fired rockets capable of targeting the entire Middle East and much of southern Europe. And it claims to have 40,000 suicide volunteers eager to deploy terrorism — even nuclear terrorism — against its enemies. With a nuclear capacity, the Islamic Republic of Iran will instantly achieve the status of superpower to which Iraq aspired.

Nothing will deter Iran. Sanctions are paper protests to an oil-rich nation. Diplomacy has already failed because Russia and China are playing both sides. Sabotage, bribery — even assassination of nuclear scientists — may delay but will not prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. That leaves military threats and, ultimately, military action.

First, consider military threats. They are already coming from two sources: the US and Israel. Neither is working, for very different reasons.

The Iranians would probably give up their nuclear weapons programme if their leaders truly believed that refusal to do so would produce an Iraq-like attack — an all-out invasion, regime change and occupation. Leaders, even religious leaders, fear imprisonment and death. Only the United States is capable of mounting such a sustained attack.

But the continuing war in Iraq has made it impossible for the US to mount a credible threat, because American public opinion would not accept a second war — or so the Iranians believe. Moreover, America’s allies in the war against Iraq — most particularly Great Britain — would not support an attack on Iran.

That is precisely why the Bush administration is barking so loudly. It wants to convince the Iranian leadership that it is preparing to bite — to attack, invade and destroy their regime, perhaps even with the use of tactical nuclear weapons. But it’s not working. It is only causing the Iranian leaders themselves to bark louder; to exaggerate their progress towards completing a nuclear weapon and to threaten terrorist retaliation by its suicide volunteers if Iran were to be attacked.

The war in Iraq is a two-edged sword when it comes to Iran. One edge demonstrates that the US is willing and able to topple dictatorial regimes which it regards as dangerous. That is the edge the Bush administration is trying to showcase. The other edge represents the failure of Iraq — widespread public distrust of intelligence claims, fear of becoming bogged down in another endless war, strident opposition at home and abroad. That is the edge being seen by the Iranian leaders. The US threat is seen as hollow.

That last paragraph is especially relevant in the context of the present debate over the leaking of classified information during wartime. Our enemies are clearly exploiting this media-enabled weakness—and the media are just as clearly not going to exercise judgment in a profit-driven environment where getting the story out as quickly as possible is all that matters, even if—especially if?—it damages national security. Ahmadinejad and the mullahs have already experienced American weakness at its weakest, during the Tehran embassy hostage debacle, and what they see in America today is bringing back fond memories for them.

In a very real way, mainstream media’s culture of “If It Bleeds It Leads” is becoming a major liability in the clash of civilizations.

[freedomson]

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

[areafiftyone]

I hate to say it but everything he said is true. Iran will have a nuclear bomb and no one will stop it from happening.

[saganite]

The last para wasn't written by Dershowitz but the way you've posted it makes it appear that it was.

[areafiftyone]

I had to post it from "Little Green Footballs" blog. I registered for the "Spectator" which the original article is from and they have to send a confirmation e-mail in order for me to get on - but they still haven't sent one so I said let me post the snippet in Little Green Footballs.

[Dark Skies]

And if they get the bomb, they will most likely use it.

[wizardoz]

You know, there's just one thing: Iraq is still a problem because of Iranian and Syrian interference. If we went into Iran, most of the trouble would follow us in, leaving Iraq to build a government without foreign interference, ours or Syria/Iran. At least, that's one possibility. I think an invasion of Iran could be a very strategic move.

[FlatLandBeer]

perhaps we need the Kennedy option here...
Tell them if they develop a nuclear weapon and use it on ANY of their neighbors without having been attacked 1st that we will consider it an attack on the US and will take retalitory action....

[Salgak]

If it finally comes down to war because the Iranians pop off a nuke at a convienient test site, like Tel Aviv, the obvious solution is a few Trident subs chock full of neutron bombs, and have the MIRVs lay down a pattern to leave nothing living in Iran's population areas higher than a cockroach.

Large tracts of Iran, populated by corpses, might FINALLY show Islam that there are some lines in the sand that you do NOT cross. . . .

[finnman69]

But the continuing war in Iraq has made it impossible for the US to mount a credible threat, because American public opinion would not accept a second war — or so the Iranians believe. Moreover, America’s allies in the war against Iraq — most particularly Great Britain — would not support an attack on Iran.

Dershowitz lives in a liberal coccoon if he believs this.

Friday night I was taking a NYC cab home, my driver was a Pakistani and he was listening to the BBC which started discussing recent gas/oil prices.

He blurted out quite seriosuly that America "should just invade Saudi Arabia and take their gas". "They don't have any army and the young people all want to be American".

Nothing like prices at the pump to spur public opinion. By the end of the summer, drivers will be screaming to drill ANWR and invade Iran already.

[Gay State Conservative]

I wonder how future US Presidents will convince Israel to sit on their nukes as Iran,whose current leaders seem to be *begging* Israel to strike,develops a bomb.

My guess is that there are plenty of English language and Hebrew copies of Mein Kempf in circulation today in Israel for the benefit of those folks who can't speak German.

[toddcaldecott]

war is never inevitable - the people of iran are no different from you or i
it is only the prejudice of this simple, reactionary thinking that makes it seem so

i spent 6 weeks in iran in 1990, and while i encountered my share of islamic fascism, i also met many wonderful, amazing people, people whose hearts are so valuable it would be worth the effort to stop war at all costs, to find an alternative and remind oneself that america is nothing more than this same flesh, the same blood

[Salgak]

Maybe the PEOPLE aren't, but their leadership is SERIOUSLY raving mad. And they elected it. Karmic Payback is a stone b*tch, and if Iran nukes someone, it's going to turn Iran into a glowing, glassy plain. . .