Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
Yep! Very good! It still makes me laugh when I think of it!
I'm sorry kids, but I gotta crash. Take care, all of you, and I'll see you tomorrow.
Rest Well, Monkey Face.
I have no idea what you mean, and yes I am new to this site. Instead of being a complete Tool about it though, why don't you make yourself useful and explain what I did wrong and how I can improve upon it.
DukeFan4Ever -- Why do you say Tool when you obviously intend the word "fool?"
Dead Corpse -- Does any of your ordnance have a "stun" setting on it? Just curious.
Darksheare -- There is a McCainiac wandering the grounds. Has anyone checked to see if his rabies innoculations are up-to-date?
I'll check the medical logs.
Now ya done it, ya stepped into the new Undead Thread which we stole fair an square.
McCain is a RINO.
"Thou shall not speak ill of another Republican."---Ronald Reagan.
With that said, you folks are all entitled to brand me any way you see fit for being a McCain supporter and I'll be proud to take the barbs. As for me however, I will adhere to President Reagan's mantra. If more members of our party did the same, it wouldn't be in jeopardy of losing the White House to Charlie Schumer and Teddy (hiccup) Kennedy's lap dog...you know who I mean. It is too bad that ours has become a Party where discussion is no longer the norm and that a certain wing of the Party, the wing hijacked by James Dobson and Jerry Falwell before him, institute a policy of "our way or the highway" mentality and they've been able to take half their collection plates and do with it and our Party what they want to. Almost makes one want to jump ship and join up with Harold Brown and the Libertarians (if it weren't for the whole "non-intervention" peace policy they have). Appropriate discussion of the issues is the hallmark of our country though I fear the Republican Party, which I am proud to belong to and vote for down the line every single election that comes my way, may perhaps be losing ground respective of that, particularly based on the way I have been ostracized simply for supporting for President a person whom the religious right has a problem with because he doesn't suck their Johnsons like the power hungry wanna-be's, aka, Bill Frist, Rick Santorum, Mitch McConnell, Tom DeLame, do. (oops, I guess I did break the 13th commandment---sorry). These blogs are fun, guys. I enjoy them and don't mean anything personal nor do I take anything personal. We're all striving for the same goal and agree on which course is best 90% of the time...let's just keep America strong and the Dems outta power. God Bless Our Troops!!!
I apologize if I offended anyone, it was not my intent. I am not "KMB" and just only last evening was introduced to the site. As for the "close" tirade or even meltdown...perhaps. I get ramped up...politics and the discussion thereof is something that is near and dear to me and I have no other outlet to express my views and thoughts than sites like this as no one in my family (ie; wife and neighbors/friends) want to hear it from me. They are all Republicans, but like you folks don't care for McCain. However supporting McCain on this site with you people rather than at home won't keep the meatloaf off the table and me sleeping on the couch!!! By the way, what does the acronym "RINO" stand for? I'm not familiar with it. As for my rants, I will keep them on the clean side and not cross that line out of respect for those who may be offended by such. I am not unChristian, by the way. Infact, I accepted Jesus Christ into my life on May 3, 2003...I'm a proud attender of 4 Promise Keepers weekends. One doesn't have to agree with Dobson to be a Republican...do they???
Just as an aside...didn't someone run against Gerald Ford during the Republican primary season in 1975-76 and lose the nomination only to come back 4 years later to win not one but two terms as President? Who was that again????
"and just only last evening was introduced to the site. "
Last evening was August 18, your signup date is June 8th.
Which handle did you sign up last night?
same one I'm using now, pretty sure. It may also have been "Hondo68_2000" as those are the only two monikers I use whether it's something like this or internet poker. Why?
You may have noticed that we zealously guard our free expression. You are well-served to tone down your language. Many important issues can be discussed without resorting to invective and insult.
It seems puzzling to me why anyone is even concerned about selecting a next leader when we have a leader at the moment who will still need considerable support for the next several years. President Bush's crafty selection of the unimpeachable choice John Roberts indicates he has lost none of his capacity for strategery.
It may well be that he has considered passing the mantle of leadership on to someone else if for no other reason than to insure his programs and policies will be carried through. It is possible he is grooming a dark horse candidate in the manner of selecting Roberts which will be seen as yet another brilliant move. A move that would quickly lose its luster under a Democrat barrage of incriminating investigations and outright slanders during this very early pre-season run-up to election.
I have only been on this site twice...last night and tonite. I just learned of this site reading an article in TIME that mentioned it while getting an oil change at the mechanics yesterday. I have visited GOPbloggers and a coupla others, but pretty sure not this one...
let's try this again:
"and just only last evening was introduced to the site."
Lats evening being in AUGUST.
Signup date:
DukeFan4Ever
Since Jun 8, 2005
Was June 8th 'last evening'?
And do you make a habit of signing up to sites wihtout first being introduced ot them?
Or did someone else signup that handle and give you the password?
"I have only been on this site twice...last night and tonite."
Then why is your signup date JUNE 8th?
This is August.
And the hits just keep on coming.
I can understand that you may not think you have a chance at a dialog with God, but if you're not going to listen to me, I can't help you.
I have nothing but undying and unyielding support for President Bush and still proudly have his '04 bumper stickers on my vehicles. I personally just dig talking about this stuff. I also agree with you that the President is indeed grooming his replacement and that is why Mark McKinnon (Bush's ad guy from TX) has agreed to join the McCain camp should the Senator choose to run again. I don't think McKinnon could have done that publicly without an OK from the White House which tells me that while they aren't great friends, Bush may see in McCain the only real chance we have in '08 and is sending his "people", like McKinnon, to Arizona.
Even better, in 4090 he said last night was his first time on this website.
Yet his signup date is June 8th 2005.
I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but something isn't adding up there.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.