Posted on 07/31/2005 1:19:25 PM PDT by KMB
For the past 20 years, there's been a discussion in political circles and the media about the "fault lines" in the Republican party over the hot-button social issues such as the death penalty, abortion, affirmative action and gay rights.
The presumption has always been that these issues would ultimately cause a rift between conservatives and moderates that would split the Republican coalition. The pundits and the MSM have been expecting and predicting this split for as long as I've been watching politics and they've been puzzled by the fact that it has never occurred.
I believe that the reason that it hasn't occurred is that the underlying assumptions are wrong. There are no "moderate" Republicans. I think Republicans are almost all conservative. Today, there are no Republicans left who are philosophically in line with Nelson Rockefeller, John Anderson, Lowell Weicker or Mark Hatfield. I know that this line of reasoning may be challenged by the Maine & Rhode Island Republican senators but the Republicans in those states (who vote Republican in presidential elections) are conservatives. The New England Republican Senators get elected by appealing to Democrats in overwhelmingly Democratic states.
There were approximately 62 million people who voted for GW Bush in 2004. I believe that probably 61.5 million of those people (1) support the death penalty (2) oppose affirmative action and (3) oppose gay marriage. I also believe that an equally high percentage of Bush voters (even those who are pro-choice) believe that the Roe v. Wade case was a hideous decision.
Pro-choice Republicans also are aware of the dirty little secret of the abortion debate -- which is that even if Roe v. Wade were overturned tomorrow, there would probably be no effect... There are probably no more than 7 - 9 states where abortion would actually be outlawed and there are currently few (or no) abortion doctors practicing in those states today anyway. Overall, the number of abortions occurring in the next ten years would only be affected by 1% or less if Roe v. Wade were reversed.
So this is, I believe, why the Republican coalition never cracked or splintered. It has confounded and infuriated the opposition but the Republican coalition really never had the fault lines that so many people thought it had.
However, I now think that one may be developing. The impending divisions in the Republican party won't be "moderate" vs. "conservative". It will be "evangelical conservative" vs. "non evangelical conservative". The issues that cause the breach won't be abortion, the death penalty, gay marriage or affirmative action. Instead the divisions will be caused over: (1) stem cell research, (2) evolution and (3) the Terri Schiavo case.
I think that 25 years from now, we'll all look back on the Terri Schiavo case as a cataclysmic event in American politics. There were tens of millions of people who looked at the pictures of Terri Schiavo and thought just one thing: "My god, if that ever happens to me, pull the plug, stop the feeding or do whatever it takes to finish me off."
At the time many Republican leaders spoke of the fact that this was a unique case but the tone of the debate both in and out of the media was that this was essentially a first step.
I remember that pro-Brady Bill and pro-Assault weapons ban politicians repeatedly assured the public that this wouldn't mean banning guns while activists and media pundits indicated that this was a first step towards doing so.
With the Terri Schiavo case, activists -- evangelicals --similarly didn't view this as a unique case but as a first step towards preventing feeding tube or life support removal in any case regardless of living wills or not.
This had an effect on non-evangelical Republicans or "secular Republicans" . . . By itself, I don't think that it would be enough to cause a breach but this isn't just one issue. The other issues that are occurring at the same time are an inexplicable renewed debate over evolution and the stem cell research debate.
With regard to the former, there's no polite or nice way to put it so I'll just be direct. People who believe in evolution think that people who don't believe in evolution are idiots -- pure and simple. The perception that an evolution believer has of a non-evolution believer is of a person saying, "Duh, my grandfather wasn't no ape."
Secular Republicans look at people who publicly discuss their doubts about evolution and who don't want it taught in public schools with utter disgust.
With regard to stem cell research, secular Republicans are excited at the prospects and supportive of practically any scientific research and they simmer at the thought of obstruction of research on religious grounds.
These three issues: evolution, Terri Schiavo and stem cell research are close to causing (or may have already caused) an irrepairable breach in the Republican coalition.
I'm a conservative. I believed in a 2nd war against in Iraq to remove the regime of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998. I also believe in making the '01 & '03 tax cuts permanent; drilling in anwar; that members of al Qaeda who are captured are illegal soldiers and not entitled to due process. I believe in progressive indexing of SS benefits, support the confirmation of John Roberts, think Antonin Scalia is the ideal justice and favor ballistic missile defense.
I also support the death penalty, oppose affirmative action, oppose gay marriage and think that the Roe v. Wade decision was a farce. I could go on but the point is made -- I'm a conservative....
But, I also accept the truth that the human species has a pre-history and I support stem cell research and I think that keeping Terri Schiavo's existance without life going was cruel and sadistic. That feeding tube should've never been inserted 14 years ago.
As a result of all of this, I now find myself in a position that I would have never dreamed of 5 or 10 years ago which is that I object to Hillary Clinton far, far less than I object to Tom Delay. Or Rick Santorum. Or Sam Brownback. Or Tom Tancredi.
Hopefully, Rudy Guiliani will be the nominee in '08 and make this all a moot point but if he isn't then I'm confronted with the possibility that I'll probably vote for Hillary Clinton despite the fact that she stands against so much that I believe in.
If there are others like me out there, and I think there are, then get ready for a 2nd Clinton Administration.
Not when my mind goes philosphical..
THEN you'll get strange babble escaping out the cracks.
Which is why I take off when I start babbling as the odd musings start rolling out of my head.
And, being half awake, the musings are strange.
I've seen the commercials.
It's still not clicking though.
Uh oh..
I'm so doomed..
Supposedly male fantasy deals with twins.
Clones, the perfect twins.
*Hiding*
Ooooh okay.
Don't worry, I won't slap you.
I'll roll my eyes though.
Ooooh okay.
Don't worry, I won't slap you.
I'll roll my eyes though.
LOL, and that double posted too.
Considering the subject, the effect is hysterical.
G'night, I'm heading out, after completely proving that I should NOT post while sleepy.
LOL! Oops!
Good night, Darks.
G'night.
I should likely wear a bright orange sign that says "Beware when sleepy" to warn everyone off.
*chuckle*
Can you not support a McCain candidacy? Anti-tax, pro-life, pro-war, pro-business, war hero, not to mention he IS the most popular politican in America based on all polls and seeing as the Republican Party is going to be in DEEP mud come '08 if Iraq and gas prices continue the way they are (and there's no foretelling they won't), if the Republican Party wants to keep control of the WH, they'll need to send in someone ALL Americans can embrace...Who else do we have? Frist? Outside of Mercy Hospital in Nashville no one knows him...Allen? His dead dad is still more popular in Virginia than he is...Santorum? Makes Reagan look like a Commie...Condi? Country isn't ready yet. Rudy? Yesterdays news (plus, if the conservative wing of the party won't embrace McCain, they certainly won't take to Rudy---pro-choice guy)...Mitt? Carpetbagger---Utah to MA??? Jeb? Says he doesn't want it and even if he did, country wouldn't buy it this early. McCain is our party's only hope of hanging on and the conservative wing better hitch a ride on that ship or we're gonna be using the phrase "President Clinton" AGAIN!
fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on how ya wanna look at it), my doctor has known me longer than I have been an independent organism.
I think she's still a little irked that I kept her in labor for five days.
35 years... long time to hold a grudge ;)
oh, I don't doubt that global warming is happening... I just doubt that human activity has much if anything to do with it.
It seems to be happening here, on mars, and on at least two of the larger moons of one or another of the gas giants.
suggests to me that we are getting more light from the sun.
either due to "clearer skies" on the plane of the ecliptic, or becuase the sun is spitting out a little more energy.
Astronomically, the sun, being main sequence, can be expected to burn hotter and more fiercely as the nuclear fires transition to higher levels of fusion.
Eventually, it will expand into a red giant, engulfing the inner planets. This is expected to take about five billion years.
I don't plan to stick around for that.
The periodicity of galactic dust is measured by its appearance in glaciation ice cores. It would appear to cause cooling by scattering the light from the sun, and then help to warm the planet again by darkening the snowfields after drifting out of the atmosphere.
If he is the best the GOP could put up for a candidate, then they should probably consider closing up shop.
That, and why are you spamming this thread with a completely unrelated post ya' Newbie?
our primary may have an expected long-range timetable, but the periodic incidence of sunspots, flares, and prominences indicates that there is significant and periodic fluctuation of its activity and output.
this in no way discounts the effects of the dust.
perhaps both factors combine to influence climate in a more complex manner than either would individually.
if that causes warming, then surely your "warm-snow" year-round whitening would cause cooling.
it is kind of a zero-sum game, isn't it?
LAST POST?
LAST POST? For who?
This thread! Of course! No action for almost six hours...
Sure is quiet in the castle for a Friday...;o]
So is this where the party is?
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