Lessons of the Little Red Hen: Noam Scheiber misses the point - (predicts Hillary v. Condi in '08)

BELDAR BLOG.COM ^ | MARCH 8, 2005 | Beldar

[freeholland]

The New Republic's Noam Scheiber argues that the Republican Party is less likely to benefit from the wave of "democratization" going on in the Middle East than the Democratic Party:

"[I]n the long-term, I think Bush's democratization initiatives clearly benefit Democrats, assuming they don't find a way to screw it up. Here's why: The Republican base consists primarily of Southern and lower-midwestern isolationist/realist types, Western libertarians, conservative evangelicals, and K-Street taxcutters. (As far as I can tell, no one ever lost a Republican primary by failing to win the neocon vote.) None of these groups gets particularly excited about democratizing foreign countries — either because they think it's a utopian project doomed to fail, or because they think it's likely to do more harm than good, or because they think we could put the money and effort we'd spend promoting democracy abroad to better use at home. Except for a small circle of neocons, the only reason most conservatives support Bush's democratization rhetoric is partisanship — because, absent the democratization rhetoric, Bush's entire foreign policy would look like one big disaster, which would be devastating for the party.

The Democratic base, by contrast, consists of a bunch of activist types who love spending time and money on idealistic causes, and who can be convinced to spend it abroad as long as you persuade them the motivation is pure. They believe in things like democracy, human rights, civil society, responsible governance, etc. with every fiber of their being. (If you don't believe me, just ask yourself which party you think, say, most third world debt-relief activists cast their vote for, or members of the free-Tibet movement, or the groups who lobby for equal rights for women in the Muslim world.) Democrats, in other words, have principled reasons for supporting democratization abroad, which, in many cases, even outweigh their intensely partisan dislike for this administration."

Even leaving aside the offensive suggestion that only Democrats can be principled in "every fiber of their being," what an incredibly pre-9/11 mentality this displays! And what an incredibly offensive pigeon-holing of Americans of all political stripes and colors!

Earth to Noam: Every American President for generations, Republican and Democrat alike, has talked the talk about democratization. Jimmy Carter, to take one example, could pontificate and moralize with the best (or worst) of 'em. Grand rhetoric, patient diplomacy, and economic incentives all have a role to play, and frankly, in the big picture, there's not a whole lot to differentiate Carter from Reagan or Dubya on those scores.

So why is Jimmy Carter's foreign policy legacy the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iranian hostage crisis, while the Gipper's legacy was the end of the Cold War and the opening of Eastern Europe, and Dubya's legacy may be a democratic Afghanistan, Iraq, and [add your favorite despotic regimes' names here]?

The short answer is that Reagan and Dubya understood that the rhetoric of democracy is made real through American military boots on the ground — or at least the credible threat of those boots, as demonstrated by courage and steadfastness of the boot-wearers and their commanders in chief.

I don't mean to suggest that this is something Republicans always get right, or that Democrats can't ever get right. The saddest moment of Reagan's presidency was the retreat from Lebanon, not the Iran-Contra scandal, and likewise the saddest of the Bush-41 presidency was the abandonment of freedom fighters in Iraq after the Gulf War. FDR, HST, and JFK could talk about "fighting for freedom" without provoking giggles, too.

But the changes abroad simply can't be made to happen with words and bucks and parlays alone. The examples for freedom now being set by the brave peoples of Afghanistan and Iraq could not have happened without American military action as a predicate. Encouraging moves toward openness and nonsupport of terrorists in Libya, Lebanon, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, central Asia, and elsewhere would not have happened without the credible possibility of intense American involvement, potentially and eventually up to the point of having American boots on the ground.

When you broaden your political viewpoint beyond "energizing each party's base" and look at the American public more broadly, big chunks of it — regardless of their pigeonholes and past party affiliations — are capable of figuring this out. And they're also willing to accept the premise that the best protection for America — the best way to prevent more 9/11s — is to promote democracy and democratization effectively, which means aggressively. Mr. Scheiber's analysis of various coalitions within the Republican party ignores the fact that aggressive democratization abroad has become a domestic security interest that transcends old coalition and even party labels.

For the Democrats, then, to ever benefit in a material way from the "politics of democratization," they will have to field a candidate whom the American public, and the world, believe to be willing and able to take the risks, fade the heat and verbal brickbats, and put American boots on the ground when necessary.

Could the Dems do that? Sure they could, in theory — if they repudiate their recent history and their far-left wing (a/k/a "their base"). They can't nominate another Jacques Forbes Kerry, though. I'm betting on Hillary the Hawk as the Democratic nominee in 2008 precisely because when it comes time to point to Dubya's successes and say "I coulda done that!" in the caucuses, she's likely to have marginally more credibility than a John Kerry or a Howard Dean. But Condi's still gonna kick her butt, because with Hillary, it's gonna still be an act — posturing, just like her hubby firing off a volley of cruise missiles to wag the dog — and enough people will see through that.

Mr. Scheiber's suggestion — which effectively boils down to "We Dems will get the credit and reap the domestic political rewards from world-wide democratization because, after all, we're the only principled people" — is just silly self-deception. When it comes to making the bread of democracy, and then to enjoying the eating of it, Mr. Scheiber and his fellow Democrats should remember the tale of the Little Red Hen if they don't want to remain like the little yellow goose, peering sadly through the White House windows from outside.