Off the bat, she could lose Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire and possibly Oregon
Cubans don't run Florida, and I'll grant there are alot of New York transplants there, but, as close as Gore got, there was a grudge there against him, it got even thicker with Janet Reno getting her rear handed to her in a primary against a guy no one had ever heard of.
Florida is also turning redder and redder, only one state elected official is a dem.
I honestly think that she could lose kerry voters in Florida, and she ranks with Janet Reno popularity. The fact that Kerry lost by a wider margin the Gore did suggests a trend.
I can't even see her peeling a single red state over to the her side.
The part of Florida that is growing the fastest is the area stretching from Naples to Fort Myers, along with the area north of Orlando (Orlando itself is a Pit). Most of these are folks from the Midwest. Of course, my parents live in Palm Beach County, aka Scarsdale South, AKA The Bagel Belt (where they live, Boca Raton, is the "buckle of the Bagel Belt") and there isn't a snowballs chance in hell that that area of the state will go GOP.
My take on Florida: The influx of midwesterners and conservative-minded transplants is counterbalanced by a continued influx of liberal New Yorkers, Puerto Ricans, and non-Cuban Hispanics (although the wealthy Colombians and Venezuelans are quite conservative). I think that it will remain slightly more red than blue, although it will never be as solidly Republican as Utah.
She COULD lose any of those states, but I don't see it happening. The whole state of MI is run by the Dems. Remember that this is the state that handily elected a liberal female from Canada as their governor.
I think the mistake you are making is to not understand that Kerry was a basket case as a candidate. The most liberal candidate in history, indeed the most liberal US Senator in history. He selected a liberal Dem as his running mate. He made one goof up after another throughout the whole campaign. Despite that, he won PA. And he beat a strong moderate candidate in the process, ie. GW.
Hillary is not going to be a weaker candidate than Kerry. She is going to be stronger. Any state that is so far to the left that it would vote for Kerry is far enough to the left that it would vote for Hillary.
And that means we've got to field a stronger candidate than Bush, but we don't have one.