She COULD lose any of those states, but I don't see it happening. The whole state of MI is run by the Dems. Remember that this is the state that handily elected a liberal female from Canada as their governor.
I think the mistake you are making is to not understand that Kerry was a basket case as a candidate. The most liberal candidate in history, indeed the most liberal US Senator in history. He selected a liberal Dem as his running mate. He made one goof up after another throughout the whole campaign. Despite that, he won PA. And he beat a strong moderate candidate in the process, ie. GW.
Hillary is not going to be a weaker candidate than Kerry. She is going to be stronger. Any state that is so far to the left that it would vote for Kerry is far enough to the left that it would vote for Hillary.
And that means we've got to field a stronger candidate than Bush, but we don't have one.
I think 2004 had some instances that skewed the race.
Bush's 51%, I don't think was his ceiling, I think it was his floor.
Hillary, has more against her, then Kerry did.
Keep in mind, her husband, who is more popular then her, never ever got 50% of the vote.
She is also a fund raising machine for the GOP, and motivates conservatives more then she motivates liberals.
Several of the states I mentioned, had improvements for Bush, and one of them, may have been lost due to fraud.
To be honest with you, I think the best chance the GOP has of getting keeping the white house in 2008, is to hope Hillary gets the nomination for the dems, I for one, am rooting for her to win a bloody primary over the dems, before getting blown out in a general election.