Posted on 11/19/2004 8:49:00 AM PST by SideoutFred
learned that this afternoon at Colby College in Waterville, Maine Mitofsky International head Warren Mitofsky has stated on record that the National Exit Poll he conducted for the major media networks show no sign that Voter Fraud is the reason for the often criticized 1.9% error that national exit poll produced.
This confirms a report made by Jim Rutenberg of the NY Times.
When asked if the full 1.9% deviation could be explained by non-response bias (Kerry voters being more likely to complete the exit poll than Bush voters), he said:
"It's my opinion, but I can't prove it."
He went on to say that it would be an impossible thing to "prove" categorically because there exist an infinite number of variables that could have a micro-impact on the exit poll which could combine for a statistically significant impact. These factors ranged from the weather to the distance from the polling place some of his poll takers were forced to stand. He is also trying to determine whether there is a statistically significan correlation between certain types of precincts and the non-response deviation. Again, right now he feels the most reasonable and logical explanation of the average 1.9% deviation for Kerry was non-response bias.
[He was able to rule out that] touch screen voting machines that don't leave any paper trail [were] being used to defraud the election. To prove this, he broke down precincts based on the type of voting machine that was used and compared the voting returns from those precincts with his own exit polls. None of the precincts with touch screen computers that don't leave paper trails, or any other type of machine for that matter, had vote returns that deviated from his exit poll numbers once the average 1.9% non-response bias was taken into account.
http://colbycollege.blogspot.com/2004/11/nep-head-mitofsky-exit-polls-show-no.html
The Democratic Underground boys do not like this article. I just saw it over there and they are killing the messenger.
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