Why does Bush not have a bigger lead in the polls?

[rushmom]

Other candidates might have done better, but I don't think they would be ahead.

[Phantom Lord]

Well, the numbers I have seen have shown it to be a reality, not a myth.

Show me where you got your numbers that there are more registered republicans than democrats.

[medscribe]

Is it a matter of Dubya not having a bigger lead or the MSM liberal hacks NOT reporting the truth? I remember 1980, when the MSM called it too close to call and Reagan wiped the floor with that traitor Carter. I remember the 1984 Reagan landslide. I remember the solid Bush 41 win in 1988, where again the MSM called it close during the final 2 weeks of the campaign. I remember the 1994 gubernatorial race in my home state of Texas, where ALL the polls going into election day had Ann "The Drunk" Richards up by 4 to 7%, only to have Dubya toss her sorry @ss out of the governor's mansion. I suspect that the race will be termed "too close to call" right up to the minute that the liberal yackity-yaks on network TV are forced to declare Dubya the winner on the night of November 2nd.

[Preachin']

There are too many people who believe that core values like pollution, "tax cuts for the rich", etc., are more important than a little issue like national security.

[snooker]

I actually think Bush is doing really good, considering

[biblewonk]

Imagine being a union thug and all of your news came from CBS and your fellow union thugs. You would pretty much live in a whole different world and be happily voting for Kerry.

[DarthVader]

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Increase in numbers of self-described Republicans could have an impact in November

WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer
Friday, September 24, 2004

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(09-24) 14:23 PDT WASHINGTON (AP) --

Voters in recent surveys are more frequently describing themselves as Republicans, a shift that could affect November elections up and down the ticket if it continues.

"In some measure, it's a reflection of the great success of the Republican campaign in late August and early September," said Andrew Kohut, a director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. "Many of the people who considered themselves independents may be feeling better about the Republican Party."

A review of national polls after the Republican National Convention found a slight shift in the number of people who described themselves as Republicans compared with the number who said they were Democrats. Polls after the Democratic National Convention, showed strength for Democratic nominee John Kerry and the Democrats.

For example, an August AP-Ipsos poll had 50 percent self-described Democrats or those who leaned Democratic and 44 percent Republican or those leaning that way. In the September AP-Ipsos poll, 50 percent were Republican or leaned toward the GOP, and 43 percent were inclined to call themselves Democrats.

"There's a hidden Republican vote that came out after Sept. 11, faded and appears in the weeks since the Republican National Convention to have emerged again," said Thomas Riehle, president of Ipsos-Public Affairs.

Attitudes about party identification tend to shift back and forth over time, said Robert Shapiro, a Columbia political science professor who specializes in public opinion.

"The GOP may have peaked with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and the GOP convention," Shapiro said.

The Swift Boat veterans charged Kerry didn't earn his Vietnam War medals for heroism -- charges that were not substantiated.

The number of people calling themselves Democrats and Republicans drew roughly even in late 2003 after decades when more people said they were Democratic. Since that time, the advantage shifted slightly back toward Democrats until late summer, pollsters say.

GOP strategists seize on recent gains in self-described Republicans as a foreshadowing of gains in November.

"It has huge significance since elections are moving more and more to the motivation of partisans," said Matthew Dowd, a senior strategist for President Bush's campaign. "Right now, we have an advantage. But I think we'll end up about even. That was my best hope a year ago."

GOP pollster Bill McInturff said a slight shift toward Republicans that holds up through Election Day, could make a big difference.

"If you start changing party identification by 3 to 5 percent, all of a sudden a thousand votes could tilt the other way," he said.

Democrats say it's only temporary.

"We're already seeing it start to recede," said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. "This is nothing like 1994."

She was referring to the elections a decade ago when Republicans rode a wave of voter discontent to take control of Congress.

Democratic consultant Dane Strother said it's too early to tell if the shift will hold up, adding: "Don't read too much into a few polls."

The increased Republican strength could further complicate the task of the Democrats this election. Population shifts toward the South and West over the last decade have shifted about a dozen congressional seats -- and electoral votes -- generally favoring Republicans.

Kerry could win every state taken by Gore in 2000 and would have just 260 electoral votes, 10 short of winning the presidency. Gore lost to Bush by five electoral votes, 271-267.

[BBT]

I beleive our tax problems aren't so much with GWB...they are with the Rats from Seattle running WA State. Let's work hard to vote them into retirement.

I respect your military service and thank you.

[Richard Kimball]

A better opponent might beat Bush, but I'm not sure. Lieberman couldn't win the Rat base, although he might have kept Jews from trickling to Bush. He has practically no charisma, and his voice sounds like the guy that played the father on Alf. Gephardt has been running for President forever, and would be Bob Dole, without the wit, although he would have carried Missouri. Dean proved himself incapable of standing up to the rigors of even a primary season. There's a reason they're hiding Edwards, and it ain't to keep him from overshadowing Kerry. Edwards doesn't come across like David trying to slay Goliath, he comes across like Leonardo DiCapria trying to block Michael Strahan.

The only reason Kerry is topping 33% in the polls (the basic Rat base) is because he's being propped up by the Old Media. In one way, politics has gotten a lot like television. Nobody will ever dominate the airways like Johnny Carson did, because there are too many other options. Similarly, presidential candidates cannot have the broad appeal they once did, because the old concept of liberal/conservative is outmoded. Twenty years ago, you could tell where a politician stood by asking his/her position on abortion, gun control, and whether the department of education ought to be abolished or expanded. Today, there are a zillion single issues and single issue voters.

Most people on FR that don't like Bush don't like him because of his stance on illegal immigration and his expansion of the department of education and medicare. Many voters dissatisfied with Bush, though, want easier immigration, and greater expansion of the department of education and universal health care.

Could a better candidate beat Bush? Yeah, a 55 year old Ronald Reagan could. Bill Clinton might, but remember Clinton never got 50% of the vote.

Bush campaigned against Kerry, not the other candidates. I think he would have done as well, or better, against any of them.

[Don Simmons]

In a basically two-party system, each side will nearly always get at least 40%.

As polarized as we are now, that'll look more like 45% most of the time.

[LibLieSlayer]

"A better opponent could beat Bush".

Yea, right... who? Hillary? Maybe edweirds?

The dims have the best that they could field. Bush is a magnificent President. Has he made mistakes? Yes. The only "Perfect" man that ever walked the earth was nailed to a cross.

LLS

[LibLieSlayer]

"just look at the changing demographics of this country".

ALL of the major polling companies say that MORE people than ever are identifying themselves as Republicans!

LLS

[Wallace T.]

A better opponent than Bob Dole might have beaten Bill Clinton in 1996, especially since the Perot factor was greatly weakened that year vs. 1992, when Perot's influence likely threw the election to Clinton. John Kerry manages to make Dole, Walter Mondale, and Michael Dukakis look friendly and populist. Either Lieberman or Gephardt would have been more credible opponents, although I suspect a Lieberman presidential run would have greatly boosted Ralph Nader's support.

The Democrats may be using this election as a warmup for 2008 and the probable run of Hillary Clinton. Barring a run by Jeb Bush, the 2008 primary season will probably prove divisive as the remnants of old-line conservatives, country club Republicans, neo-conservatives, and the Christian Right slug it out. She may count on one or another faction of the GOP to sit out the race or support a third party candidate like John Anderson in 1980, who attracted many "me too" Republicans. People like Dana Rohrbacher and Michael Savage have talked out loud about a nationalist "borders, language, culture" third party. How would they react to, say, a Rudolph Giuliani or a Chuck Hagel at the head of a 2008 GOP ticket?

[wingsof liberty]

Good one, Thanks! Aint it the truth :(

[Phantom Lord]

Voter registration numbers is what I am looking for you to provide, not how people identify themselves in a poll or survey.

You stated that republicans out register democrats. I contend that is not true and thus have not been shown to be wrong.

[Phantom Lord]

Bush is a magnificent President.

Far from it. He has been nearly an absolute failure on the domestic front.

Were it not for 9/11 and the subsequent wars, it is likely he would have faced a primary challenge, which he would have survived. But he would likely be losing by a good amount now to who ever the Rat candidate was.

[Paradox]

ALL of the major polling companies say that MORE people than ever are identifying themselves as Republicans!

You are correct. This is something of a paradox, to me anyways. I would like to see the breakdown, by ethnic group, of the changes regarding party affiliation over the last 10-20 years.

I dunno, but to me it seems that the only people breeding alot are the ones that would tend to favor a welfare state.

[RetiredArmy]

Well, gee I am glad you set me straight on the property tax thing, I would never have guessed. /sarcasm off.

[RetiredArmy]

Now that I agree with you on. I voted straight republican ticket in the primary (as only we could!). I will vote for them again in the general election. I would not vote for a democommie if you put a gun to my head and threatened to shoot. You'd just have to pull the trigger.

[IDontLikeToPayTaxes]

Because a LOT of people are totally clueless about current events. My brother works with a lady that said the other day "who's that other guy going against Bush.....'Carey' or 'Kari' or 'Kerry'.......what's his name?"

Ever seen Jay Leno do the "man on the street" interviews?