Posted on 09/29/2004 8:04:25 AM PDT by wingsof liberty
As we all know Bush is ahead in the polls, lets hope thats still the case on November 2nd. What I dont understand is why Bush is not further ahead, given all the controversy and negativity swirling around the skerry campaign. Granted hes got his hardcore base that would support him even if Kerry was somehow linked to the attacks of 9/11. But with issues like:
The See BS ANG document scandel, now at least indirectly linked to Joe Lockhart, Kerrys Senior Campaign Strategist; the Swiftie campaign, which clearly shows Kerry as a soldier who negotiated with the enemy in Vietnam, betrayed our troops with his anti-war speeches in front of Congess, and more recently blasted PM Allawi on his visit to thank the US for our help in Iraq; Kerrys refusal to take a stand on much of anything, in some cases less then 48 hours before flip-flopping; proposing "grand visions" to solve everything in Iraq, which in most cases turn out to be solutions Bush is engaged in anyway, and the biggest one for me is deliberatly avoiding his 20 year record in the Senate, which is what he should be basing at least part of his candidacy on
Bush is not perfect, hes made mistakes. But why dont more voters recognize what a disaster this country would be plunged into with skerry at the helm?? What else can we do to get the message out and make sure this does not happen in November?
Because voters are pessimistic about the economy and Iraq and they don't think Bush is up to giving them the education, health care, and so on they want from the government. A better opponent could beat Bush.
MSM is doing everything it can to get a liberal elected.
Maybe he is further ahead. The way polls are bing weighted could be skewing the results. I think people will claim the party affiliation of whoever they are voting for in that election, but the pollsters discount many republican respondents to achieve the percentage of republican participation that they believe reflects the electorate as a whole. The only problem is that if 10% of the population has shifted its political affiliation, the weighting of the polls using old party affiliation data could seriously undercount Republican votes.
It is very complicated game.
The National Polls cover the popular vote but not the electoral votes. By concentrating on the states with big electoral votes you would have a chance.
Life ain't fair! LOL
Failure to address the 900 lb gorilla in the room - Illegal Immigration. Although I will vote and volunteer to get GWB re-elected, I am furious and disgusted about the illegal invader problem, as are most people I talk to. If GWB came out for really tackling this problem, he would get easily another 5-10 points in the polls.
The illegal immigration invasion is seen by most as a huge lapse in judgement by this president.
A Republican will NEVER again win the presidency in a walk. It will always be a great struggle, and it will get worse in the future, just look at the changing demographics of this country. That, plus the overwhelmingly liberal/democrat "leaning" mainstream media, and you've got yourself a tough fight to get elected to a national office.
No doubt.
Of the serious contenders in the RAT primary, they could not have choosen a worse candidate.
Al Sharpton, Carol Mostly Fraud, and Denise Kookcinich were not serious contenders.
Wesley Clark might have fared worse than Kerry is, but he would have had to work at it. Lieberman would likely be well ahead of Bush. Gephardt would be putting up a strong fight. Dean would likely be doing well as he would have been consistent and strong on his message and wouldnt be flip flopping on the war every 3rd sentence. Edwards, with the infatuation the press has for him would likely be well ahead. His being number 2 currently and his being almost invisible has given a distorted perception of how he would have done on his own.
"For one thing, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. He would have to take a percentage of the Democrats plus the Independents to get the lead."
Not anymore Pubbie registration is up nationwide.
Out of the group, Clark and Kerry were the only ones with a real chance. Kerry is pretty much blowing it by running one of the worst campaigns in modern history.
Some states also have no party affiliation with voter registration.
It's a pretty big lead, considering that he was trailing Kerry a couple of months ago by quite a few points!
It will be a bigger lead after the debates! :-)
The Far Left anarchy led by Michael Moore poured the Kool Aid for the poor moderate Democrats and well they drank but hopefully many will come to their senses before they blindly follow Kerry off a Cliff...
With any luck "We The People" will make this election a referendum on the failure of the Democratic party..
I disagree. Lieberman would have been a strong candidate. But because of his not being beholden to the left and a kook, the RAT primary voters would never go for him.
Bruck's analysis:
Dem hardcore base is unmoveable as you've noted. But also demo moderates need to be "moved" to vote for W and they aren't.
SeeBS documents scandal is a big deal but not a vote-changer; pubs already know MSM is biased, and so do most dems, and they are happy about it. That is, there's no "outrage" bcs there's no surprise. Plus we've all been jaded by X42's myriad scandals and crimes.
Swift boat vets ads have made a big difference among the "undecideds" - that and good speeches at the pub convention made the shift from Kerry winning to W winning.
All the other stuff negative about Kerry is cancelled out by favorable coverage for him from the MSM plus negative coverage of anything associated w/ W, like the war, the economy, drug-addicted senior citizens, etc.
Americans everywhere are embarrassed to admit that they are now totaloly dominated by a "system" wher their vote means nothing. They are trying to preserve the illusion that there is a "contest" by keeping the votes close.
there is this huge ABB crowd of Bush haters
Hitler could run on the D ticket and still make it neck and neck
MSM will report bad news first. If Bush is leading it is bad news for them as they are so liberal and so very anti-Bush (notice that few in the MSM are actually pro Kerry). Too many people are not educated on what is going on in politics and rely on the MSM for their news and information, so they are getting filtered left-leaning news that will support their own agenda.
The only poll that really counts is the one on November 2nd where you actually cast a vote. All other polls are irrelevant.
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