Posted on 08/07/2004 3:08:05 PM PDT by SonlitKnight
Bush has allowed Kerry and the Democrats to frame the debate and is now on the brink of losing or winning based on what happens September 3rd.
I was convinced that Bush had strated to seize that momentum after Kerry's disatrous convention. Then, Team Bush's train hit a brick wall in the form of rising oil prices, a dismal jobs report and stocks falling off a cliff.
Now, I am painfully aware that the household survey showed 629,000 jobs created and Unemployment fell to 5.5%. Yet, we all know that will not get any media play.
Now, in the early analysis, it doesn't seem like it has really hurt Bush's momentum (at least, not yet). Rasmussen shows Bush with his first back to back JA since April and the head to head is knotted at 47.
I have long been convinced that the cadaver is such an unappealing candidate that Bush would only lose if people believe the wheels are coming off. If people think things are moderatly bad or better, Bush wins. Kerry wins if people think the sky is falling and we have no choice but to make a change.
I am convinced Bush will have a far better convention than Kerry. If he gets the nom on September 2nd, after a rousing convention, then *Bam* killer jobs report on the 3rd, kiss Kerry goodbye. Bush will open up an 8 point lead and coast to reelection.
However, if, just as Bush tries to springboard from New York, he gets socked in the face with a dismal jobs report (the 3rd in a row), it will be the Iceberg that sinks team Bush. He will not recover.
If the jobs report shows 200,000 jobs+, Bush will be reelected. If it shows less than that, it is over and Kerry will be elected.
The fact is that the Bush administration has not made the case that the Household numbers are a far better measure of our changing economy and that job growth is actualy quite strong. Afterall, clinton was quite fond of touting the household numbers while he was President. Bush is paying the price for letting democrats dictate the terms of the debate.
Disagree
I think the polls wont blow open until after debates. You are putting way too much importance on the jobs report even though it is important. There will be a SOLID week of post convention Bush ocverage and most of that analysis will be dissecting the speeches, the convention, and examination of polls for post convention bounce.
The final undedcideds wont make up their minds until after the debates.
In a word --- nonsense.
Someone needs to get those statistics out there. If not the White House, then who will convey the truth? I think most of us feel the campaign could have been handled far better than it has been but the media IS a gigantic obstacle. They will not let the positives and the reality reach the voters. Maybe we can help?
If the only debate going on is this silly feud about what went on
in the Mekong River 35 years ago,Kerry wins in a landslide.
The Kerry campaign is overjoyed the only hits they are taking is from Rush and Sean railing over an issue that 95 % of the voters
on either side couldn't care less about.
The RNC is an asset to the Kerry campaign as long as they play defense and keep their fingers crossed Kerry will screw up.
There is a third school of thought - It will be a close election, but the result has not been predetermined and we don't have a crystal ball to predict the future. Neither candidate "is toast" or "has a lock" at this point.
You got it. Debates are absolutely crucial. This is the first time the masses actually start paying attention. If GWB can get Lurch to sweat like he did at the Rat convention, it's a lock for W.
What are the dates for the debates?
You promise? 'Cause I'm betting the house on your word...
LOL
The Vietnam experiences of Kerry ARE a distraction. But his credibility is an issue that needs to be examined and his lies are a major part of his life and image. The lies 35 years ago are maybe not so dissimilar to the ones he has lived and told since then. So probably it is much better to focus on what he will not...His Senate "career".
Spittle from Kerry during the debates would be excellent.
One has to wonder of the folks responsible for the jobs report may not be fudging the factors a bit, and what their political affiliations might be. It seems difficult to be able to do this more than one month in a row, but there may be ways.
Another factor is the Wall Street hesitation due to concern over just who may be selected to lead. I'd like to think that if they were more confident of a Bush win, things would be looking more rosy. I suspect they are worried, just as I am.
Since a Kerrey win would mean jobs going south, the investors are adopting a wait-and-see attitude -- which results in bad reports.
People vote for the guy they like the best. Period.
Hand-wringing about these wildly volatile employment numbers (that always get adjusted down the road) is not something the great majority of voters engage in.
Who do you suppose the American people will like better as they get to know Kerry?
Any analysis that is based on Rasmussen polling data begins with a flawed premise and goes downhill from there.
Excellent post, SonlitKnight. I can't understand why Team Bush is holding back. Kerry is a sitting duck in so many ways. Yet, you are right. So many factors, so many ifs....
History tells us that President Bush will be re-elected, barring some major scandal or misstep, neither of which should happen.
Please.
It is a blow out and they know it.
Internal polling has scared the crap out of Kerry - why do you think he's going on tour with Edwards? No media attention (he doesn't need it), no print, nothing - it's because he doesn't have anybody outside of the beltway.
Yes! If he gets freshly Botoxed just before, his lip muscles might be paralysed, making for uncontrollable drooling, heh heh ...
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