TANNED, RESTED, & READY.
Posted on 06/13/2004 4:02:07 PM PDT by webtarian
History is a fascinating subject. I have a hunch that between now and November, we will see some interesting history being made. I see some vicious partisan politics on the horizon and it is becoming very clear to me that the Bush junta is coming to a close.
Based on a number of things, I think we will see Bush's approval rating tank before November. I believe unfolding events will serve to totally discredit Bush. Assuming that Peroutka and Nader will be unable to achieve ballot access in a majority of states, Libertarians may see what amounts to a 2-way race.
Wishful thinking? Maybe. But, consider what is unfolding before your eyes. The 9/11 Commission is about to release their report following on the heels of Michael Moore's 9/11 film. There are many Americans who believe that Bush overreacted, acted incompetently (before & after 9/11), was complicit in letting it happen, or actually was involved.
The people who want the truth behind 9/11 are all over the political map. The reason they want the truth is because there are too many unanswered questions. It is no secret that Bush and Cheney did their best to block any investigation of 9/11, so they only have themselves to blame. They should have told the truth from the beginning instead of transforming the tragic event into a political opportunity.
Expect more leaks regarding 9/11 and more rehashing of old news regarding outrageous law enforcement failures and intelligence failures. Expect FBI agents and employees to come forth with new information. Keep an eye on Sibel Edmonds and the FBI agents represented by David Schippers.
Next we have the case of Valerie Plame. Bush has already consulted with a criminal defense attorney and the case seems to be proceeding. Reports that Bush knew about the White House leak and may have sought to cover it up are circulating. You will remember that Ashcroft recused himself from this case when it first sprouted legs. John Dean thinks this could be bigger than Watergate.
Next we have the liberation of Kabul, but not the rest of Afghanistan. Elections are being delayed once again. The Taliban and the warlords appear to control everything but Kabul. Opium production is up by 1500%, according to some sources. In other words, a failure by Bush in Afghanistan. And still no Osama - unless he is already in custody and they plan to bring him out in late October.
Then there is the matter of the propaganda used to push America into a war with Iraq. Bush and his neocon war planners have already been discredited to all but the most diehard believers. Every prediction the war party has made has turned out to be wrong. Every prediction made by the opposition has turned out to be somewhat accurate.
The cakewalk in Iraq turned out to be quite ugly. The "handover of power" scheduled for June 30th promises to be a flashpoint for failure if Bush's Iraqi puppets continue to be assassinated. The notion that this war is reducing terrorism, as the Bush people have recently boasted, turned out to be yet another lie. Global terrorism is up, according to the State Department.
We are already seeing the resignations. Tenet and a chief deputy being the first of the big names. It is believed that Powell and Rice will not serve if there is a second Bush term and Powell has been distancing himself from the neocons. The rats always jump ship just before it goes down.
Many people in the military and in intelligence are fed up with Bush and his over-the-top agenda. Note, that for every dubious assertion made by Bush or his minions, a secret memo or report is leaked by outraged low-level underlings to refute the administration's claims.
Of course, we have Abu Ghraib and the violations of the Geneva Conventions. New information that the authorization of these ugly events lead directly to General Sanchez and the White House will be in the press for weeks to come. It is now obvious that everyone above the rank of Private has sought to conceal the truth and cover their own lame asses at the expense of enlisted men and women.
The Democrats will use as many of the issues above (that they can distance themselves from) to grind Bush into the ground. Libertarians should do the same. Michael Badnarik has already stated the war was based on lies and he is quite correct. The constantly shifting reasons given for the Iraq war never touched upon the real reason - long term geopolitical strategic interests.
The wild card in all this is how the Bush people will react. Possibilities might include more fearmongering, a code red clampdown, an escalation of the war in the Mideast, the production of information that could bring Kerry down, and, God forbid, ... well, I won't go there.
I expect things to get very ugly before November. Should Bush's approval rating slide below 40%, he will become increasingly irrelevant in the November elections. Instead of the neocon Bush supporters, the media will trot out the paleoconservatives who despise Bush, causing him further erosion in the polls. Remember, the mainstream media is about entertainment and appealing to the majority.
We know that Kerry supporters and the left will criticize Bush. But, what many Bush supporters have yet to realize is that the most scathing attacks on Bush are coming from the old right. Despite GOP attempts to compare Bush with Reagan this past week, Reagan's death may serve as a reminder to conservatives how far apart these men are, in substance and style.
November is coming and Americans are being asked to choose between two establishment Skull and Bones frat boy liars. Bush, a potential war criminal, and Kerry, a self-admitted war criminal, will beat each other to death, if we are lucky.
Libertarians have not faced a scenario similar to this since Virginia Libertarian Roger MacBride ran for President in 1976, in the wake of Nixon and in the infancy of the LP. However, in 1976 Americans had two years of Ford to get over Nixon. This time Bush is on the verge of Terror-Gate just weeks before election day.
This is a splendid opportunity for constitutionalist Michael Badnarik to put the LP on the map. Badnarik will be on the ballots of most, if not all, states. Peroutka and Nader will be lucky to be on the ballots of half the states. There are a lot of folks out there on the left and right that will not be voting for Bush or Kerry. These same people may well see some things they like about Badnarik, even if they disagree with much of the LP platform.
Maybe this year these people will hold their nose and vote for what they perceive to be the lesser of two evils and vote for Badnarik. By election day, we could see a two-way race between Kerry and Badnarik. Wishful thinking? Only time will tell. Stay tuned for some high political drama, some history-making histrionics and a big fireworks show.
In which alternate universe?
I can hear the egg sizzling in the frying pan.
This is your mind. This is your mind as a Libertarian.
I know of some people who'd LOVE the drugs you're on.
I'll vote for the libertarians once the liberals are dispatched, till then, it's too dangerous.
Good grief man, what are you smoking?
Oh wait, don't answer.
So President Bush overreacted, but he's also complicit by not reacting enough. OK. There are "rumors circulating!" Ooh, sounds delicious - this'll be great fodder for all those conspiracy theorist dinner parties. And JOHN DEAN thinks making Joseph Wilson famous (yes, it was a crime!) will be worse than Watergate? JOHN DEAN? Does he think if it is worse it'll somehow wipe out all the crimes he's admitted to (and plenty more, according to "rumors" which have "circulated" for a very long time, of which he may also have been guilty) and the relish with which he turns states' evidence against his former compatriots?
Finally, this fellow, what was his name again, Bednarik (like the old Philadephia Eagles great?), he's going to rise up and overtake President Bush, resulting in a two way race with that wonderful, formidable candidate John Kerry?
Perhaps in order to determine which particular drug this fellow wants legalized, we just need to guess under which drug's influence this hilarious piece of comedy was composed.
Jesse
Diagnosis, meteor strike to the head.
How many times do I have to tell you: BURN THE COPPER OFF THE CHOIR BOY FIRST.
On the polling front, any large numbers from outer space?
We know that the Taliban stamped out opium production, so we must conclude opium is being intensely cultivalted in Kabul inasmuch as the Taliban control everything else. </ sarcasm>
But a scenario in which Bush collapses and the election turns into a two-way-race between Kerry and Badnarik is totally and absolutely ludicrous.
Bush remains the odds-on favorite to win re-election. If Kerry wins, it will be another extremely close contest. If Bush wins it could range from a close contest to a landslide, depending upon various external events. But I just can't see Bush losing by a large margin.
Sbstitute Kerry in this article for Bush and there is a real possibility that the Dems could get hammered. Kerry does not excite a lot of Dems. Many are suffering from buyers remorse since he was chosen as the candidate. I still think the convention is going to be a donnybrook.
One More Tribute (to President Reagan)
Bill
I'm a small-l libertarian and I doubt the LP percentage of the vote will be statistically different from the voting error rate.
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