Posted on 11/06/2012 10:28:45 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Blumenthal warns:
[T]he initial results of the exit poll interviews have had frequent problems with non-response bias, a consistent discrepancy favoring the Democrats that has appeared to some degree in every presidential election since 1988. Usually the bias is small, but in 2004 it was just big enough to convince millions of Americans who saw the leaked results on the Internet that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush. It didn't work out that way.
The resulting uproar led the networks, beginning in 2006, to hold back the data from their news media clients in a sealed quarantine room on Election Day until 5 p.m. Eastern time. The quarantine means that any numbers purporting to be "exit polls" before 5 p.m. are almost certainly bogus.
Sarah Kliff's advice on exit polls:
Keep an eye on the demographics. [Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling] and [David Flaherty, CEO of the right-leaning Magellan Strategies] both say this is going to be one of the crucial things they’ll watch [tonight].
“Here in Colorado, for example, Latinos were 13 percent of the vote in 2008,” says Flaherty. “If it comes back at 5 pm, that they’re 18 or 20 percent of the vote, that would be a key observation. Then the folks in Chicago are going to be extremely pleased. If we see it at 9 percent, it might cause the Romney folks to start thinking that group isn’t as enthusiastic.”
Here’s Jensen’s take: “What I’m going to be looking out for are the demographics of who voted along racial and age lines. We Democratic pollsters think that the African American and younger voters will have as high turnout as they did in 2008. Republican pollsters are projecting enthusiasm won’t be there.”
And its usually Republicans that say, ignore exit polls.....when conservatives come home from work, they will be out in droves. Now I’m hearing more DEMS say ignore the exit polls? If true, they are in deep doo doo.
Bull-hocky. If the polls look good for the Messiah, they'll be leaked as a matter of policy. If they look bad for him, the release will be delayed by an hour.
Dems 2004 exit polls - WE WIN WE WIN !!
Dems 2012 exit polls - IGNORE IGNORE !!
Dems 2004 exit polls - WE WIN WE WIN !!
Dems 2012 exit polls - IGNORE IGNORE !!
what time are the first exit polls released??
Watch out. The first round of exit polls will not catch people who have jobs and are voting after work. Youths and minorities will vote earlier in the day, so of course they will constitute an outsize percentage of voters when the 5:00 PM round of exit polls are released.
Remember in the Wisconsin recall, the 5:00 round of exit polls had the race tied. The final round of exit polls, which are released after polls are closed, showed a Walker victory.
Look for Axelrod to start proclaiming victory based on the first round of (minority-skewed) exit polls.
Would a Patriots fan decide to become a Giants fan after seeing his team endure years of failure?
For many, many voters out there, the party is their team.
If Romney wins, GOD WILLING, 0bama will not be easily extricated from the White House. There's been chatter that a coup attempt might have been in the works just in the last month or so.. 0bama's flying to Florida then immediately departing without campaigning and going back to D.C. The 'suicide' of a Secret Service agent in his car.. The aftermath of Benghazi is haunting the Democrats right now. I believe God will save America today. We simply cannot endure more hits from 0bama's wrecking ball. Sorry for babbling but I am nervous today.
I'm following him on Twitter just to watch the meltdown when it comes.
Here's the link for Nate Silver "fans": Nate Silver on Twitter
I kept hearing on FOX how Republicans always win on election day, but Dems always win in early voting. If exit polls are solely based on election day, then they would be biased toward Republicans.
However, I seem to remember hearing 4 years ago that the pollsters mixed in data into the exit polls culled from early voters too. In which case the Dems should have no reason to mistrust the exit polls, unless they really are losing.
Exit polls would certainly be useless as any kind of statistic if they didn’t account for early voters.
Rumor on twitter is that Obama knows they are losing Ohio based on turnout so far which is why they dispatched Biden to Ohio today...
Dan Rather has said he believes it will be a good day for Romney. Nate Silver has conceded Florida. Howard Dean is already screaming about fraud. Democrat early voting is down across the board. The writing is on the wall my friend. This is gonna get good!
really the left is now calling my state FL for us?
Imagine if we never had over a millions black racists and yes I call them that as they would never ever , never vote if oabma was white guy.
This election would be over for the Dems
I'll predict that some Philadelphia precincts have 110% turnout with Obama getting 99%.
I'll predict that some Philadelphia precincts will have 110% turnout with Obama getting 99%.
Here’s Jensen’s take: “What I’m going to be looking out for are the demographics of who voted along racial and age lines. We Democratic pollsters think that the African American and younger voters will have as high turnout as they did in 2008....”
There you have it-the reason, in one simple sentence, of why the polls have shown a tight race with oversampling of Ds! They (the “Democratic” Pollsters) and the clients who pay them (MSM outlets) have been assuming this is 2008! It’s not.
Andrew prefers entry polling. Keep it on the down lo.
Tonight, watching MSNBC and following Twitter will be like the Superbowl, World Series, World Cup, Indy 500 and American Idol all rolled into one...
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