Posted on 11/16/2009 9:40:16 PM PST by oldtimer2
The Next 7 Millions Jobs That Will Be Lost
November 17, 2009
The hype is that the "recession is over." Has anyone touting this line actually walked around the real world? The next 7 million jobs to be lost are already in the pipeline.
The divergence between the reality easily observed in the real world and the heavily touted hype that "the recession is over because GDP rose 3.5%" is growing. It's obvious that another 7 million jobs which are currently hanging by threads will be slashed in the next year or two.
According to the latest Employment Situation Summary (Bureau of Labor Statistics) dated November 7, 2009:
Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 190,000 in October. In the most recent 3 months, job losses have averaged 188,000 per month, compared with losses averaging 357,000 during the prior 3 months. In contrast, losses averaged 645,000 per month from November 2008 to April 2009. Since December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.3 million.
Civilian labor force: 154 million Employment: 138.3 million Unemployment: 15.7 million Sept-Oct. change in employment: -589,000 in unemployment: 558,000 Not in labor force: 82,575,000
It is staggering that 7 million jobs lost out of 145 million (the total prior to the financial meltdown) has created a 10.2% unemployment rate. The numbers here don't add up--"only" 190,000 jobs were lost in October, but then employment fell by 589,000--huh?--but the point missing is how many jobs are hanging by a thread.
I recently traveled to Los Angeles for an interview with my polymath friend and media maven Richard Metzger, creator of the Dangerous Minds website which has rocketed to 50,000 page views a day in less than two months. (Richard also manages the L.A. Time's hot blog Brand X which will have you humming Randy Neuman's I Love L.A. in short order.)
Has anyone noticed that airports are commercial dead-zones peopled by zombie clerks suffering from terminal boredom?
One desperate young man had taken the unenviable job of hawking Chase credit cards via a weak pitch for a free ticket on Southwest Air (retail value $59). Since I like to arrive early for flights (perhaps scar-tissue remaining from being on TSA's "watch list" for months on end, and almost missing flights as a result--"papers, please!") I was able to observe hundreds of travelers stream by the young man's kiosk while he gamely voiced the pitch. Not one person even paused, much less stopped.
Translation: Up yours, Chase credit cards.
How many of these dead-zone airport retail kiosks will go dark next year?
The See's Candy kiosk: bored clerk rearranging pricey boxes of candy, no customers. Ditto the sunglasses kiosk, and every retail outlet except Starbucks, which was moving plain coffee and the pizza/beer establishment which did a brisk business around 7-8 p.m. with the "heading home Sunday evening" crowd.
(Richard and I had picked up some excellent Chicken Tikka Masala on Pico Blvd., so I wasn't tempted.)
I rented a 4-door brand-new Ford Focus--a nice car with plenty of zip--for $24 total, including all the ripoff airport and State of California taxes, with unlimited miles. $24 for all day, including all the new junk fees added to car rentals? Deal!
The red Mustang sat in the rental lot, a rather sad icon, while the cheapest compacts were rented and driven off the lot. What does that say?
Arriving early at the studio (natch), I had time to wander down one of the premiere open-air retail malls in the nation, the Promenade in Santa Monica (town of my birth, heh, though I never lived there). Other than one or two Asian tourists, no one carried a shopping bag of any size or type. This was noon on Sunday, a busy shopping day, and nobody was buying anything. Barney's Beanery was doing a good business but most other dining establishments were crypts.
Sauntering down blocks of America's standard-issue mall outlets--J. Crew, Apple, Pottery Barn, etc. etc.--the stores were empty though the sidewalks were busy.
Victoria's Secret was promoting 7 panties for $21--how much profit can VS rake in selling 7 panties for $21?--and the store was empty. Even the Apple store was a morgue.
Bored waiters were leaning on sidewalk cafe railings, and a few employees were sitting outside talking with their friends--tip-off--no drinks, no food, the table was bare.
OK, here's the money shot. Recall for a split second I am a writer (for better or worse) and so my "job" is to observe people closely (22 years free-lancing, man, am I dumb to keep doing this!).
So a tres-chic young Caucasian woman with two adorable kids around 7 to 9 years of age pauses a few yards from me. The woman has the casually tony attire and slim figure of someone who either is a well-educated professional pulling down major dollars or someone whose spouse is pulling down major dollars in some yuppie gig (or both spouses are doing so).
The yuppie Mom pulls her wallet out of her upscale little purse as the two kids gather round and I am thinking, "She's going to give each kid a Jackson ($20) or at least a fiver just to blow on whatever strikes their fancy."
This is, after all, Santa Monica on a Sunday, and this is a yuppie Mom with the bucks to pay for high-end casual attire, hair coloring, personal trainer, gym membership, etc.
After digging around a bit, she extract two pennies which she gives to her kids to toss into the water feature/fountain nearby.
I think this rather neatly summarizes the entire U.S. consumer and the future of the economy.
Doesn't anyone follow the threads of what is easily observable anywhere in America?
Consider for a moment one of the few businesses licensed to print money--towing companies with city contracts. What are the odds that these towing outfits are towing cars which no one ever claims? Heck, with tickets, towing and storage fees, the cost of reclaiming your vehicle can run into the hundreds of dollars in a mere day or two.
That is more than many vehicles are worth. So what's the net result? the towing companies' lots will soon be filling with junkers and their revenues will be falling as down-and-out citizens abandon their vehicles because they don't have the money to get them un-impounded.
Net-net, when the towing company's revenues fall then somebody's hours or job gets cut.
About once a month I take my Mom out to dinner in San Francisco, "the most European city in America" and a favorite city for those with disposable income. The city contains approximately three restaurants per resident (slight exaggeration) with a Michelin one-star establishment (i.e. excellent, superb, etc.) about every block in the better neighborhoods.
Yes, it is a splurge, but it's my Mom and it's our "quality time." So we chat with the waiters and waitresses, and on opera nights and the like, business is so good it seems impossible the word "recession" is even being bandied about.
But when it's slow, it's dead. It seems almost random, which nights are busy and which are slow, but the net result is far from random. A couple of places that we occasionally frequented a mere year ago are now dark.
A friend of ours has been trying to sell an investment house in a highly desirable zip code in a San Francisco Bay Area suburb. Built perhaps a decade ago, the house would have fetched $800,000 in a heartbeat in 2006, and our friend rejected an offer of $550,000 a year ago as absurdly low. This is after he spent a lot of money having the home repainted in and out, new cabinet doors installed, new carpeting, etc.
That was the only offer the property has received in over a year. Needless to say, maintaining the mortgage is killing him financially.
How many hundreds of thousands of families are in the same situation?
The Honolulu Symphony, which I enjoyed occasionally when I lived on Oahu, recently declared bankruptcy. How many other non-profit arts, theater and community groups are hanging by a thread? Hundreds, if not thousands.
Put together the anecdotal evidence and the next 7 million jobs to be lost are already in the pipeline. I could go on and on about the small businesses whose owners are preparing to close "if things don't pick up a big way soon" and all the other signs that a new wave of massive job losses is rising. But you know that already if you've walked around with your eyes open.
/s
Whenever I go to Wal-Mart, it’s always a zoo. If the economy’s weak, I’m not seeing it up here in Wasilla.
My husband and I commented the other day that we have not been inside a mall in two years. Last weekend we drove to a lowes in a heavy, high density shopping area outside Houston. Traffic is always painfully heavy on Saturdays filled with shoppers. We get on the highway - hardly any traffic. We get to lowes, hardly any cars in the parking lot. Inside hardly any shoppers and two clerks asking my husband if he needs help.
It was like being in a place that is foreign - empty almost. So I drove us around to the many other shopping areas, resturants normally packed and to the mall parking lot - the same as Lowes - almost empty. We had an eerie feeling as we zipped back home with no stop and go traffic in the usual places. Things are really bad or loads of people have given up on the has been hobby of shopping and eating out. I feel bad for the small business owners and all their employees!
Outside of grocery shopping, I seldom "shop" anymore. I used to go through Lowe's or Home Depot or Best Buy even if I didn't need anything in particular, just to see if something seemed worth buying. Now it doesn't merit the effort, especially when the local and state government raid my wallet for another 8.25% of the purchase.
Shopping on line is another matter. Regular email circulars arrive with lots of products, including electronics and computer add-ons. It's a rather fun game, finding an interesting item, researching it, reading the reviews and doing an exhaustive search for the lowest price, no sales tax (usually) and free shipping, all without leaving home.
bttt
They cannot give them away in Detroit for 3 dollars. I recently read about one for a buck that had no takers....
Area prepares for major Dell layoffs in Forsyth County
A major round of layoffs is headed for the Dell plant in Forsyth County. Wednesday, about 600 employees will lose their jobs. The layoffs are part of the process of the entire plant shutting down, which Dell says will happen by the end of the year. Not only do the layoffs mean more people in local unemployment lines, but area businesses are concerned about what the layoffs mean for them.
When revenues for retirements fall short enough, we’ll be allowed to manufacture useful products on our own properties regardless of NIMBY/HOA/communistic zoning ordinances. :-)
These 7 million jobs have ALREADY been saved. If the are lost now it is all Bushes fault!
Realize that Houston is still propped up a bit with energy companies compared to the rest of the nation. Energy prices have not tanked much and Texas is doing better than other parts of the country.
I guess the point is I am shocked that Houston is like a ghost town. Small businesses around the country are toast. VEry sad but a lot of people voted for this.
McCain s*cks but a lot of this is Atlas Shrugging and people boycotting the Obama economy.
“Victoria’s Secret was promoting 7 panties for $21—how much profit can VS rake in selling 7 panties for $21?—”
Well, 3 stings do not cost that much....
I meant to say that McCain sucks but I think the economy would have held up a bit better if he had won.
I was late for work today...only because Bush did it.
In NJ/NY/PA/CT tow companies with muni contracts LOVE unclaimed cars... they can easily pull in 50% of the bluebook value of clunkers that go unclaimed.
The hot/cold thing for restaurants is spot on for north NJ too, it's utterly random, at least a few years ago when Sunday nights were quiet everyone knew a new episode of the Sopranos was airing.
Maybe everyone is getting ready for another long season of Global Warming up there?
This writers observations match what I have been seeing. I hope he is wrong but I fear he isn’t
I agree. I realize it’s a mortal sin to go into a BestBuy but I was at the one in White Marsh MD two nights ago. BestBuy and the holidays usually mean long lines and a crowded store. It was like i was in there on a Tuesday afternoon in September. No lines and not very many people.
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