Posted on 02/02/2007 4:47:11 PM PST by PhiKapMom
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
New York, Feb 2 -
To:
Team Rudy
From:
Brent Seaborn, Strategy Director
Date:
February 2, 2007
Re:
Rudy and the Republican Nomination
Over the last month or two there has been a good deal of public opinion polling on the 2008 Republican primary race. I thought it would be helpful to take a step back and take a closer look at how voters – particularly Republican primary voters – feel about Rudy Giuliani and why we think we are well-positioned heading in to the primary season.
Americans Have a Highly Favorable Opinion of Mayor Giuliani
Entering the 2008 primary season, Rudy Giuliani is uniquely positioned among potential Republican candidates because of his extremely high favorability ratings. Recent public opinion polling shows Mayor Giuliani with 61% approval among adults across the country – according to the ABC News/Washington Post poll (Jan. 16-19, 2007). The well respected, bipartisan Battleground Poll (Jan 8-11, 2007) shows the Mayor with 65% favorability among likely voters. More importantly, Mayor Giuliani shows an 81% favorable rating among Republicans and only 10% with an unfavorable opinion.
According to the Battleground poll, Mayor Giuliani also has surprisingly high favorability ratings beyond the base:
In an even more recent poll, Gallup (Jan. 25-28, 2007) finds Mayor Giuliani also leads among Republicans on 7 of 10 key issues including terrorism, the economy, healthcare and fighting crime. He also leads on 11 of 15 key candidate attributes – including “better understands the problems faced by ordinary Americans”, “would manage government more effectively” and what I believe to be the single most important factor – “is the stronger leader.”
In sum, while we fully expect these polls to tighten in the months and weeks to come, Republican voters genuinely know and like Rudy Giuliani.
The Mayor Performs Well in Opinion Polls
The Mayor’s exceptionally strong approval ratings also translate in to an advantage on Republican primary ballot tests. In 11 of 13 ballot tests in respected national public opinion polls [Fox News, Newsweek, Time Gallup, CNN, NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post] since last November, Mayor Giuliani has a lead – in fact, his lead is on average, more than 5-points over the next closest candidate. And his ballot strength began to trend upward after the 2006 midterm elections.
Mayor Giuliani Leads in Key 2008 Primary States
Mayor Giuliani also leads in a series of other states that will likely prove critical in the 2008 Republican primary:
|
State |
Mayor Giuliani |
Closest Competitor |
Source |
| California | 33% | 19% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 11-17 |
| Florida | 30% | 16% (Gingrich) | ARG - Jan. 4-9 |
| Illinois | 33% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-14 |
| Michigan | 34% | 24% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 4-7 |
| Nevada | 31% | 25% (McCain) | ARG - Dec. 19-23, ‘06 |
| New Jersey | 39% | 21% (McCain) | Quinnipiac – Jan. 16-22 |
| North Carolina | 34% | 26% (McCain) | ARG - Jan. 11-15 |
| Ohio | 30% | 22% (McCain) | Quinnipiac - Jan. 23-28 |
| Pennsylvania | 35% | 25% (McCain) | ARG Jan. 4-8 |
| Texas | 28% | 26% (McCain) | Baselice Jan. 17-21 |
Mayor Giuliani’s favorable public opinion stems not only from his extraordinary leadership in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and in the uncertainty that followed, but also from a remarkably strong record of accomplishments in fighting crime and turning around New York City’s economy in the 1990’s.
Americans are anxious for fresh Republican leadership on a range of issues. Our voters are drawn to the leadership strength of a candidate during an election. Therefore, as we move forward with exploring a run for President and as we continue to share the Mayor’s story of strong leadership and Reagan-like optimism and vision, we hope to see continued growth in our foundation of support.
Just curious.
Have you ever had prostate cancer? My dad succumbed to it 14 years ago. I hardly think that that's bailing.
It's great news! Keep smiling!!!
You're the one who is supporting married 3 x Newt, right?
But what about the gays? Who's worried about terrorists when there are gays living among us?/s :)
Probably not a prayer of winning. You can dream and scheme, and he may well be the nominee.
But until he can sign a blood pledge not to interfere with my ability to defend my family--he can hike to the moon in a scuba outfit. He is sunk.
Until then, Rudy must lead in this war or many folks will walk.
I know that JR is the owner founder of this site, but he is only a single voice in this debate he is not the end all be all. And yes I have met him.
See Post 113. I guess I need to add this to my original post.
Not important to you but important to me that he is tied in with Cunningham and the other Congressman from CA! Steering contracts as head of the Armed Services to this company -- if a Dem did it, some would be up in arms but since it is a Republican it's okay.
We look at things differently!
This is certainly the perception, and may be the reality. I believe that this perception is his greatest strength and the basis for his popularity.
The electorate is going to want two things from the president, and neither one has much to do with social issues. The people will want strong leadership, especially after Bush's descent from his bullhorn moment at the wreckage of the Towers to his current muddling through. Rudy brings back that moment, rightly or not. And, the people want a sense that they will be kept safe. That means a leader with a record who exudes self-confidence and a "can-do" attitude.
The New Hillary will be a more attractive, warmer version than before but she will have to demonstrate strength and leadership without becoming the strident "Old Hillary" whackjob. Up in the air whether she can pull that off. Threatening to nationalize the oil industry is a poor start. But if she can, then it's up for grabs. If not then say hello to President Giuliani.
That aids epedemic was really overblown. Get real.
Not everyone. The libs and the hoitytoities lined up around the block to show their support for the artist and the first amendment and free speech and whatever else they could spew. And to commend all those who used their own freedom of speech to call that thing "vile".
OTOH, the war is numero uno for me...and our troops come first.
Rudy's Kerik Problem Records detail ex-commish's contacts with alleged mob-tied firm+
by Tom Robbins
May 10th, 2005 11:34 AM
Freep-mail me to get on or off my pro-life and Catholic Ping List:
Please ping me to all note-worthy Pro-Life or Catholic threads, or other threads of interest.
"That aids epedemic was really overblown. Get real."
The POTUS has no power to stop homos from having gay sex. Get real!
Good luck in the Democrat primary...
Rudy's Kerik Problem Records detail ex-commish's contacts with alleged mob-tied firm
by Tom Robbins
May 10th, 2005 11:34 AM
Liberals don't consider NG or reserves to be 'service'.
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