Posted on 08/29/2003 7:52:25 AM PDT by Hillary's Lovely Legs
"I can tell you my love for you will still be strong After the boys of summer have gone." -- Don Henley, "The Boys of Summer"
As Labor Day weekend approaches, the 2004 presidential campaign is taking shape. The days are getting shorter and the fortunes of some Democratic candidates who were hot in the spring may be beginning to fade. Some of the so-called top-tier Democratic candidates seeking to challenge Bush have failed to catch fire with voters in the important early primary states. Meanwhile, polls suggest that President Bush is vulnerable. News reports are for the first time portraying him as being on the defensive on foreign policy -- an issue that had been his strength.
Recent polls by Zogby International and Newsweek show that President Bush's job approval rating slipped over the summer, pegging him at just above 50 percent. At the same time, the public's anxiety over the administration's handling of Iraq -- from the number of soldiers being killed to the impact on the federal budget -- continues to rise.
The Zogby poll also points to another troubling sign for the president. Fewer people are saying the president deserves to be re-elected (45 percent) than are saying he does not deserve to be reelected (48 percent). That's a reversal from two and half months ago when the numbers lined up 49 percent to 38 percent in the president's favor. The numbers don't show a slippage among those who support the president as much as they show an increase in the number of people who don't. For those inclined to believe in the vast left-wing conspiracy, even a recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamic poll put the president's "deserves to be reelected" number at 47 percent.
"The president's poll numbers are a reflection of some other numbers: three million jobs lost, a deficit of a half a trillion dollars in one year," said Democratic National Committee spokesman Tony Welch. "And even some Republicans are saying the president has led us into disaster in Iraq. No matter what they say, the polls are an indication and reflection of something real."
Months ago, Bush pollster Matthew Dowd attempted to pre-empt "the sky-is-falling" scenarios. Dowd's analysis included some historical perspective: In 1983, President Reagan trailed possible opponents John Glenn and Walter Mondale in various polls. Reagan went on to beat Mondale in a landslide, winning 49 states. In 1987, President Bush trailed in generic ballot polls, but went on to handily defeat Michael Dukakis the next year. In late 1995 and early 1996, Wall Street Journal and Gallup polls had Bob Dole with a slight lead over Bill Clinton, who went on to defeat Dole in the November election.
It would be ridiculous to predict Bush's demise a year before the votes are cast. But polls do give a reliable snapshot in time of current opinions. That snapshots suggest the president is not as invincible as he once seemed.
The Dem Side
For however much Bush's poll numbers may be lagging, he still compares favorably when stacked up against any of the Democrats, according to recent polls. Some of the so-called top-tier Democrats appear to be fading. Sens. John Edwards (N.C.) and Bob Graham (Fla.) are polling at about 2 percent in New Hampshire -- one point ahead of retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who hasn't announced his intentions, formed an organization, or raised one cent for a campaign. Is it too early to panic? Or should these two big names be thinking about returning their attention to their day jobs in the Senate? Those questions will be asked with ever-greater frequency after Labor Day.
There's no question what the Orlando Sentinel thinks Graham should do. It ran an editorial last week with the headline "Bow Out Bob Graham." Noting that Graham was running neck-and-neck with the Rev. Al Sharpton in Iowa, the paper suggested that "the longer [Graham] continues his long-shot bid for president, the more he risks diminishing his effectiveness as a senator."
The situation in North Carolina is even more interesting, given the competitiveness of the seat even if Edwards decides to stay in the Senate race. Some in the state's Democratic establishment have asked Edwards to declare his intentions by Labor Day. That's not going to happen. George Stephanopoulos reported on Sunday that Edwards aides had predicted in private conversations with him that their candidate would pull out of the Senate race by Sept. 16, the date set for his official presidential announcement. But that may not happen either.
Edwards is cognizant of his problem in the polls, but he and those around him believe it is a problem of name recognition rather than message. They still believe he is the most capable of the Democratic candidates. Campaign aides believe it's going to be between six and eight weeks before they'll see the results of Edwards's campaign ads and "Real Solutions Express" bus tour.
Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) doesn't have to worry about running for reelection because his Senate term doesn't end until 2009. But he does have to worry about slipping poll numbers in New Hampshire. One theory about the reason Kerry plans to make his official entry into the presidential race in front of the USS Yorktown aircraft carrier in Charleston, S.C., is that with former Vermont governor Howard Dean moving ahead in New Hampshire, Kerry is looking to broaden his horizons in the key southern state. Someone from a rival campaign referred to the Kerry announcement as a "gimmickry."
Asked to respond, Kerry spokesman Robert Gibbs quipped: "What criticism? Oh, you mean like going to South Carolina? This just in: there's a primary on Feb. 3! Yes folks, we have adjusted strategy and we will compete in South Carolina." Gibbs also notes that Dean was the only one of the "major" candidates to already be running hundreds of thousands in television ads in New Hampshire and Iowa. (When reminded that Edwards was also running ads, Gibbs chose not to amend his comments.)
The approach of Labor Day also brings nearer the decision by former Gen. Wesley Clark about whether he will run. But as I said in my live discussion last week, Clark's candidacy is looking less and less likely to become a reality. Despite the passion he engenders among some people, he's still largely unknown to the vast majority of the American public. To suggest that a guy who's never run for anything can jump in and build the organization and name recognition, and raise the kind of money he would need to compete and win the nomination this late in the game seems a stretch.
More Gimmicks
Two other candidates are struggling to be competitive in key states by introducing some new "gimmickry" to their serious campaigns. Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt, who is running second to Dean in Iowa polls, has just announced "The Great Gephardt Iowa Pie Challenge," in which he asks voters of the great first caucus state to help him find the tastiest pie in the land.
"Iowa has a long tradition of bringing great pies to our nation," a Gephardt statement reads. "From Stone's 'mile high pie' in Marshalltown to the apple pie at Cronk's Café in Denison, I've only begun to nibble away at the best of what Iowa has to offer - now I need your help in finding all of the great pies in this great state."
I'm not sure this blatant pandering to the sweet-tooth constituency furthers his ambition to be seen as the candidate with the biggest boldest ideas (see Gephardt health care plan), but, hey, it can't hurt.
Lieberman, who is polling in single digits in New Hampshire, announced this week its "See Joe's Car & Go See Nomar!" contest. Voters in New Hampshire who spot one of the campaign's "JoeMobiles" can become eligible for tickets drawing to go see Nomar Garciaparra and the Boston Red Sox by calling or e-mailing the campaign and saying, "I saw the car and love Nomar."
But the bigger question, come the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary:
Will they love Joe?
Then I suppose they're also a reflection of the decline in unemployment claims, the increase in hiring and the rise of the stock markets (including NASDAQ's highest level of the year, just a couple days ago). Yes, the Dems are so logically consistent.
U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton speaks at a news conference Tuesday on the steps of City Hall to demand an explanation from the White House about its role in suppressing public health information following the World Trade Center disaster. (Newsday Photo/ Mayita Mendez) August 26, 2003
Jeepers, I miss ole crusty. She really looks horrible in any color but at least black doesn't make the ugly scream at you.
On another topic, on the last thread you posted about your local school district asking parents to send in paper towels and the teachers having to clean their classrooms.
Another old liberal (aka teachers union) trick we've had played on our county. I think it started about the time Jeb Bush took office as governor the first time.
I wonder why they're doing it before Arnold takes office.
The AWP's think this is a feather in their caps no doubt.
ALBANY, N.Y.--A drop in President Bush's poll numbers has increased speculation about New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton jumping into the 2004 Democratic presidential race--a notion the former first lady rejected Friday.
''I am absolutely ruling it out,'' Clinton said during a visit to the New York State Fair in Syracuse. She had insisted in recent months that she will not consider entering the race for president this year even if that is what some Democrats want.
Fueling the speculation has been talk of a fall visit to Iowa, site of the nomination's kickoff caucuses Jan. 19, but no confirmation yet from her staff on whether Clinton will go. A meeting of her fund-raising team next month is expected to include at least some discussion of presidential politics--more likely the 2008 race, said some familiar with planning for the session.
And, there is her own campaign Web site, which includes a section called ''Hill Notes''--a sampling of supportive e-mail messages assembled by her staff. On a recent day, seven of the first 10 messages urged a presidential run, or alluded to the possibility. "Please run for president in 2004. We need you," pleaded one from "Josh B." [His acquaintances call him "Loser Boy"]
Asked about the messages Friday, Patti Solis Doyle, executive director of HILLPAC, Clinton's political action committee, said: "We receive many e-mails in a day, Friends of Hillary posts two or three a day."
Clinton has the celebrity and the fund-raising prowess to overwhelm the crowded Democratic field of nine candidates, even late in the campaign. She has not ruled out a run in 2008. Friends and advisers maintain that she has no interest in 2004. Calling the speculation "unfounded," Harold Ickes, a top political adviser and former White House deputy chief of staff, said simply, "She ain't going to run."
A spokesman for the former first lady also sought to dampen the talk, at least for 2004. "Senator Clinton has repeatedly said that she will serve out her full, six-year term," said Philippe Reines. [If only that term included an orange jumpsuit!]
Not everyone is convinced. "To the extent that Bush's numbers go down--and they've been going down--her consideration of 2004 has to go up," said Maurice Carroll, head of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
A 2004 Democratic victory by another candidate would likely delay any Clinton run for the White House until 2012. link.
Here's an exceptionally barf inducing email to hilly:
"Thank you for existing! Thank you for bringing our country through such a wonderful period of time-of prosperity, peace, strong international relations, healing our economy, and what I consider to be the best presidency in history."
-Jason
Thank you for existing? Holy cow!
HLL, you need to send hilly an email for her friendsofhillary site and ask hilly who's picture is on the cover of her book. heh heh heh!
I'm off to visit my FIL for a little birthday celebration. Don't have too much fun while I'm gone. :-)
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