Posted on 12/24/2002 4:37:41 AM PST by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!! Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nation's military who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
WINTER STORM #4 - UPDATE
Discussion--
Low pressure center is currently centered over extreme NE MS, near AL border, about 50 miles south of common border with TN. Movement is toward the NE.
Second LP center will develop off C. Lookout, NC, this afternoon, and strengthen rapidly. Conditions are favorable for this system to bomb out as there is a confluence of the southern and polar jets about 200 miles off Sandy Hook; however, warm air parked over too much of the eastern seaboard may mitigate this effect.
Nevertheless, much moisture is available to the system. QPF figures of 1.5 inches are showing up in extreme SW ME, extreme SE NH, the eastern half of MA, all of RI, and all but the NW corner of CT. In addition, a 1.5" QPF figure is also forecast for the southern Catskills of NY. Assuming melt ratio of 10:1 to 15:1 for this system. This means there are locations in the storm track that may see in excess of 20" of snow. Prepare accordingly.
Areas that have QPF figures of 1.0 inches that are north of the 850mb 0C line include NE PA, NY east of the Finger Lakes and south of the Adirondack shield, the southern halves of VT and NH, and SW ME (excepting those areas previously mentioned as bounded by a QPF isohyet of 1.5"). These areas may expect, on average, between 10 and 15" of snow.
The 850mb 0C line (the "rain/snow line") has been repositioned a little further to the north - Rockland and Westchester counties in NY will not see much snow.
Winter storm watches are in effect for virtually all of PA, NY, and New England, except the extreme north of ME. Winter storm watches are also in effect in NW NJ and eastern OH.
This system has the potential of becoming a dangerous winter storm, appropriation preparations should be made.
Forecast-December 24--
Rain moving into the Carolinas and Virginia (later). In Virginia, this precipitation may also be snow or sleet in higher elevations.
Forecast-December 25--
Rain changing to snow in northern Virginia as the system pulls out by early afternoon. Rain likely coastal areas DE/NJ, snow elsewhere in NJ as day moves on. Coastal areas of NY likely to see sleet or rain/snow mix. Interior areas of PA/NY and all of NE likely to see heavy snow Wednesday, tapering off in the small hours of Thursday. Accumulations well beyond 12" are possible - 20" are not out of the picture. Southern Catskills, and large portions of New England should prepare for the possibility of total storm drops exceeding two feet.
Advise monitoring local news and NOAA Weather Radio for updates in this serious weather event.
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In the news:
Secretary Rumsfeld warned North Korea yesterday that America has the forces to fight and win wars in two theaters at once.
United States experts still fear "catostrophic" attacks by Al Qa'eda, saying the groups ingenuity level is as high as ever.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
With all that's been going on in our lives, I haven't had time to do the baking, decorating, gift wrapping, and such that I normally do ..... will spend Christmas Day doing a lot of that.
But we attended a Christmas Eve candlelight service tonight and are looking forward to some quiet time together, focusing on the fact that Christmas is not about all the trappings (as wonderful as they are) but is about the Tiny Babe born in Bethlehem, through Whom we have salvation, abundant life, and hope.
Though this Christmas will break just about all of our family traditions, it will also be very special.
God bless you and your family, Mr. M!!!
We have that White Christmas....but now its raining...but there is the promise of snow this afternoon.
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