Posted on 10/21/2002 5:03:49 AM PDT by BigWaveBetty
TO: Marc Racicot, Chairman, RNC Jack Oliver, Deputy Chairman, RNC FR: Matthew Dowd, Senior Adviser RE: Current Political Environment/Strategy Recommendation
With a little over three weeks till Election Day the analysis below illustrates Republican opportunity in the current political landscape. This memorandum reflects internal RNC polling conducted as recently as Thursday night (10/10/02).
As we approach the November mid-term election, the President and the Republican Party are in a historic and positive position. Since 1934, the incumbent party of the President has lost an average of 27 congressional seats in the first mid-term election. It now appears this mid-term will not follow the trend of history. A few key factors have contributed to this dynamic in the past.
Two primary factors are the approval rating of the President and the public's support of the pposition party and its leaders. Historically, a President's approval rating is dismal during the first mid-term election. The exception to that trend would be John F. Kennedy in 1962, who had a 60% approval rating going into his first mid-term election.
Also historically, the opposing party has a major advantage over the President's party on favorability and key issues.
There is significant evidence that this election is breaking from historical trends:
1) Historically, Republicans have success at the polls even when Democrats have a three to five point generic ballot advantage. Now on the generic ballot, Republican and Democratic candidates are tied and it has basically been this way for 7 months. So despite Democrat hopes that a variety of issues might work to their advantage, the generic ballot has not moved.
2) In past elections, Democrats have had a seven-point party favorability advantage. But, during the last seven months, Republicans have maintained a 2 to 6 point net favorability advantage and this week's polling is no different.
3) President Bush's approval rating in all public and private polls continues to be above 60% as we predicted months ago. In fact, in our most recent poll, the President's approval rating is near 70%.
4) There is no national Democratic leader with overwhelmingly positive ratings. Most of the Democrat Party leaders have significant unfavorable ratings or weak or anemic favorable ratings. The last Democratic nominee for President, Al Gore, has high negatives and net unfavorables. This is a unique and dangerous position for the opposition party.
The following facts about the current issue landscape illustrate several Republican advantages:
1) Today the issues most important to voters are:
a) Economy, b) Terrorism/Security/Iraq, and c) Education. This has been the case for 3 - 4 months now.
2) The public continues to be very concerned about the economy and is somewhat less optimistic than they were a few months ago. Further, a majority of the public thinks the economy is going in the wrong direction, not the right direction. Pundits and political strategists of both parties have mistakenly assumed Democrats would benefit because of this.
3) The public trusts the President over Democrats in Congress on each of the above issues, despite media coverage over the last few weeks concerning the President and Iraq and Homeland Security, and Democrat efforts to be perceived as dominant on domestic issues. Ironically this includes the issues the Democrats often refer to as "kitchen table" issues. In a broader comparison the public trusts the Republican Party over the Democratic Party overwhelmingly on terrorism/security, and the Republican Party is tied with the Democrat Party on the issues of the Economy and Education.
4) The public's desire, in spite of the Democrats best efforts to the contrary, is to not fix political blame for the economy. They continue to look for positive solutions for job creation and economic growth. Thus far, the public hasn't heard a single positive message from Democrats on this issue. This provides a great opportunity for Republicans to debate and engage voters and Democrats directly. Since Democrats do not have the voters' overwhelming trust on the economy and have no real solutions from their leaders, the Republicans are in a great position to win the debate on the economy in this election.
5) Corporate accountability/responsibility has fallen to some degree as an issue of concern. The public still trusts the President and Republicans in Congress more on this issue. Pundits initially speculated this issue would be a boon for Democrats, but based on the generic ballot stability, the President's continued high approval ratings, and the Republican Party's favorability advantage, voters clearly understand the source of this problem.
Conclusion:
This election will be fought at the local and state level in a few contested races around the country. Though Democrats have tried to nationalize this election with coordinated attacks over last few months the facts above show the public has not responded. It is amazing that with an economy growing less than we would like, the Democrats have no inherent advantage on this issue or on any of voters' top concerns. It points to an opportunity for Republican candidates to discuss the President's positive economic agenda in a major and profound way. Voters are looking for positive solutions, not fixing blame. And Democrat's lack of both leadership and a positive agenda for the economy has left them unable to connect with voters.
This Week's Action Alert
Change Your Answering Machine Message To Support Our Republican Candidates
Help President Bush by spreading the Republican message! Change your answering machine at home or voice mail at work to promote our Republican candidates on the ballot this November.
On to victory!
Voice Mail Script: "Hi you've reached , another supporter of 's Republican Team.
As my friends and family --- please do me a personal favor -- vote Republican on Election Day.
Keep Strong. Vote for and the entire Republican team on Tuesday, November 5th.
And of course, leave me a message and I'll get back to you as soon as possible."
Not sure who's running? Learn about every race in your district by visiting the Team Leader campaign section, more...
President Signs Iraq Resolution
"The resolution I'm about to sign symbolizes the united purpose of our nation, expresses the considered judgment of the Congress, and marks an important event in the life of America. The 107th Congress is one of the few called by history to authorize military action to defend our country and the cause of peace..."
Read more.
Spotlight Races
MO: Poll Finds Support For Carnahan Slipping
MD: Ehrlich Hailed on Transportation
NY: GOP Governor Prospers in Democratic N.Y.
MD: A Vote for Connie Morella, is a Vote for Continued Leadership
Don't Forget To Vote Republican And Mail Your Absentee Ballot!
We only have 19 days left until Election Day. Remember to vote for all your Republican candidates. With a majority in Senate, we'll be able to pass a budget, create a Department of Homeland Security, pass Terrorism Insurance and confirm well-qualified judicial nominees. Together we can keep the House and take back the Senate.
Vote and mail your ballot today!
Not sure who's running? Learn about every race in your district by visiting the Team Leader campaign section, more...
Site Updates
State By State Ballot Request Information "Time's running out...don't forget to request your absentee ballot!" Read more.
Democrat Publicity Summit Fails To Address Stalled Economic Legislation "Democrat inaction in Washington means no relief for hard-working Americans and their families. From the Democrat Senate's failure to pass a budget or a prescription drug plan, to their failure to make the tax cuts permanent, Democrat inaction negatively impacts the lives of everyday Americans!" Read more.
Gephardt Talks A Lot About The Economy, But When It Was Time To Act...He Didn't! "Gephardt says he wants to focus on the economy, but how credible is he? Where was he when his vote counted? Time after time, vote after vote, he voted against legislation critical to strengthening the economy and creating jobs." Read more.
President Highlights Humanitarian Efforts in Afghanistan "Afghanistan has entered a new era of hope. And we want to be a continued part of the new era of hope in Afghanistan." Read more.
Secretary Paige Announces $35 Million in Grants to Recruit and Train New Teachers "'America's future depends on ensuring that our classrooms are filled with many more bright and dedicated teachers,' said First Lady Laura Bush. 'I hope that school districts will use this new resource to encourage more men and women to enter the teaching profession.'" Read more.
Republican Confidential
"I'm the No. 1 target of the White House. They can't get Osama bin Laden, so they're going to get me."
Do you know who said that? Find out here.
Don't forget to go to Project Vote Smart
This site is great to check out candidates from every state. Once you've found the candidate you're interested in (look on the left hand side of the page and enter candidates or elected offical's last name, then click OKAY) look in the right hand corner for:
For instance the Issue Positions gives you easy access to information on how a candidate stands on all issues. That is if they filled out the questionaire they were sent.
For instance Gov. Jeb Bush filled out his from last election. Enter Jeb's last name to check out what a good candidate looks like.
For contrast, Bill McBride the challenger for the Florida's Governor's race hasn't bothered to fill his out so all you get is this:
The 2002 National Political Awareness Test will be sent to those candidates who file with their State Board of Elections to run in the General Election.
I checked four of the republicans running in my state, all had filled out this important information.
The four opposing democrats all have not filled out their issues forms. Hmmmmmmmmmm!
We were amazed at how little we knew, but we're feeling greatly enlightened now, especially about William the Conqueror (the Bayeux Tapestry is fascinating) and the Nazi occupation of France. Of course, D-Day was our primary focus. On our next trip, we'll concentrate on WWI sites. At the American Cemetary in Normandy, we were able to look up the burial site of the brother of an elderly friend of my sister and b-i-l. I guess he's never gotten to see where his brother was buried (killed 7/29/44), so the photos we took will be of some comfort.
Timeout and friend will be getting a car and zipping around the Burgundy countryside about now. She's really taking the gourmet tour, having done extensive pre-trip research on the best places to eat and visit. It was great to meet her.
Anyway, it's nice to be home. I have a ton of stuff to do, especially with the election coming up (phone calls to make on behalf of our Senate candidate, Jay Wolfe), clothes to wash, a refrigerator to restock, grass to cut .... ugh, suffice to say, a long list.
Ugh. Mr. M and I visited the V&A the day before the Versace exhibit opened, but we saw where it was. The next day, we watched the TV news and there she and fruity boy were. I guess the second year of graduate school at Oxford is as undemanding as the first.
BEEKMAN-The same day U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton was the subject of a front-page article of The New York Times, she came to Barton Orchards in Beekman to speak to a group of fruit growers about disaster relief. On Oct. 22, Clinton addressed a tent full of third-and-fourth-generation farmers who have sought the Senate's help. The farmers, represented by the Hudson Valley Fruit Grower Task Force, have lobbied the Senate to pass a law that would provide disaster relief for lost crops.
"We've got to be squeaky wheels, or we won't get any grease," Clinton said. "When the world around us is becoming so uncertain, we need to invest in food security."
The Fruit Grower Task Force has been busy, visiting Washington, D.C. in July, just a few months after its formation. The group came together after many farmers suffered devastating crop losses because of severe weather conditions such as early frost, hailstorms, and high winds. Some farmers reported crop losses of as much as 85%. full story.
Now I appreciate the challenges faced by farmers as much as the next person, but should the fed govt (that is, we taxpayers) foot the bill everytime the weather is not optimal? Haven't we always had hail, frost, wind, etc.? Haven't farmers always known that adverse weather is a possibility, and thus one of the risks one assumes in farming?
No wonder 'Ol Crusty's looking a bit let out in the seems, lately.
E - it's nice to be back, though it was a most enjoyable trip. We're already thinking about another. Since we saw so many WWII museums and sites, we may fashion a WWI trip for the next excursion, especially as we both have relatives who fought in France during the Great War.
Eating fish or seafood at least once a week lowers the risk of developing dementia, researchers have found. full story
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