Discussion:
Westward drift of this system is now starting to become of some concern to the coastal regions of the United States, though some weakening is likely after VT +24 hrs.
CAT II HURRICANE LILI ADVISORY 48
[DISCUSSION INCLUDES INFORMATION FROM ADVISORY 48A]
Discussion:
The cooler SSTs of the northern Gulf have caused some weakening of Lili and a collapse of the eyewall; some further decrease is likely before landfall.
The spin down has caused an expansion of the wind field. Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 65 miles from center, and tropical storm winds to 195 miles.
The strike point is moved slightly eastward from yesterday's daytime forecast packages, but slightly westward from the package issued at 11 PM ET. It is anticipated the storm will make landfall in Vermillion Bay, just to the east of Marsh Island. Landfall time will be later this morning - probably around the time the 11 AM ET forecast package is issued.
Flooding due to storm surge is still a major concern - the confined areas of Vermillion Bay will serve to magnify the height of the surge, and coastal areas under 20 feet need to watch for innundation.
The postion of Lili at 7 AM ET was 29.0N 91.9W. Max wind has decreased to 100 MPH.