Tell me what's illogical!
For starters lets look at your statement above. Why would you use the blue van if you were going to grab Elizabeth when you had access to a vehicle that already had her DNA in it? The Jeep was the perfect vehicle for the job. A halfway competent attorney could easily explain any trace DNA evidence found in the Jeep. In fact I don’t think you could find a district attorney who would indict Ricci based on trace DNA in this because it would be an un-winnable case. So if Richard and/or Angela were involved in anyway at all then you can bet the farm that the Jeep was used to transport Elizabeth. Using anything else would be illogical.
I'll tell you right now, ONE thing that's illogical: that people would leave a jeep that is capable of doing 500-1000 miles, in the shop, for extended periods, when the stated repairs could be done in a day or two!
Let me start with a premise that this was a kidnapping for ransom situation and that the perpetrators plan was to wait several weeks to make their demand to the family. There is also a possibility that the plan may have been to eventually return Elizabeth to her family.
I think that the idea was to provide an alibi for the Jeep in case one was needed. This part of the plan backfired badly but if Mary Katherine had remained asleep then it might have worked. If the Smarts had awoken at their usual time and noticed Elizabeth gone it would have taken a lot more time for them to notify the authorities. Seeing the cut screen would have raised some suspicions but they still would have looked around the neighborhood and called all of Elizabeth’s friends to see if they could locate her. It may have taken half a day before a patrolman arrived on the scene. His first thoughts would be that she’d runaway regardless of what the family told him.
Detectives would eventually get involved but it might have taken 2 or 3 days, possibly more. If no foul play is suspected then an adult usually has to be missing for 72 hours before an earnest investigation begins. That time is probably less for a child so perhaps the detectives would have talked with the Smarts the next day, it doesn’t really matter that much. Their first idea beyond the runaway angle would have been a family abduction because that is statistically where the odds lie. Next they would have looked at friends, neighbors, teachers, etc. to see if anyone of them had a fixation on Elizabeth or something shady in their background. They would have also looked at all the known sex offenders in the area to see if one of them were involved. Eventually they would have looked at other people on the fringes of the family. Richard would have fit into this fringe group. With no ransom demand there would have been no FBI involvement and probably only 1 or 2 detectives working this case. By the time they got around to Richard the Jeep would have been safely back home and they would have no reason to suspect him anyway because he had no record of any sexual crimes. At some point the detectives would have chalked the crime up to a random perpetrator and the case would have been declared cold.
With all this in mind let me propose a scenario in which Mary Katherine doesn’t wake up. I’ll modify my cabin model to include the possibility that Elizabeth was going to be returned to her family upon receipt of the ransom. You Ricci lovers should like this one because it gives Richard some wiggle room. I’m not going to give Angela any because she insinuated the other night on LKL that she in fact did call Moul’s garage. For those of you who think Angie is really angelic you can substitute “mystery woman” wherever you see her name.
The Jeep is put in the shop to repair the fuel pump (possibly induced failure) and other items that needed attention. They tell Moul to get the car running first and that they will let him know later whether or not they can afford to do the other work. Later Angela makes the call telling Moul that they in fact want the other work done but that an emergency need has come up and they need the Jeep. She also tells him they can’t pay until the other work is done because payday won’t be until the 1st. Moul agrees because they have paid their bills in the past.
Somebody, not Rick, removes the Jeep from Moul’s lot without being seen and drives it to the remote cabin site. The abductor makes the trip to Federal Heights a few days later and discovers there are a bunch of cars around the house due to Lois’ father passing away. The plan is put on hold. Finally on the 5th the coast is clear and the perpetrator grabs Elizabeth, puts her in the Jeep and subdues her for the trip back to the woods.
Elizabeth is to be held in the cabin blindfolded until the investigation goes cold. Somebody else, perhaps the abductors girlfriend or wife, is at the cabin to help take care of her. In this scenario the Jeep would have been returned to Moul’s garage during the afternoon of the 5th of June by the perp claiming he was dropping it off for the Ricci’s. It also could have been returned surreptitiously to give total deniability to those involved. Once the investigation has gone cold then the Smarts would be sent a picture of Elizabeth holding a current newspaper to show them that she was still alive. The note would include a threat that if they contacted LE in anyway to report this that their beautiful daughter would be killed. The thinking of the conspirators would be that the Smarts would not take the chance and would pay the ransom. After the ransom was collected and they were sure that LE was not involved then they would release Elizabeth somewhere near a small town far away from the remote cabin.
Once Elizabeth was home then of course the Smarts would contact LE. The investigation would surely lead to Ricci again. His alibi would be tighter than a drum. Elizabeth would describe what she remembered. The only thing she might have seen was a white Jeep prior to being subdued. She would remember Richard from his day’s as their handyman and would inform LE that he was not the kidnapper. As far as the Ricci’s are concerned the investigation ends there.
Of course Mary Katherine changed the dynamic. The conspirators had to go into cover-up mode, which of course included silencing Elizabeth. Comments and flames accepted.
Yes, by Angela calling and saying they were going to take it Moul would not have gotten as excited as he would have if it had just disappeared with no warning. However, if someone came and took the Jeep without Moul seeing them you would think Moul would have called the Ricci's about it, but maybe he was intimidated by Ricci. However, if they went to all this effort to conceal who took the Jeep, why did Richard return it in broad daylight in front of God and everybody with all the evidence and his accomplice across the street. He must have really thought Moul was stupid for one thing.
I think the scenario is generally good. I think the kidnapper may have used his white or silver Honda but then met someone else in a remote site up in the hills above Tomahawk and there blindfolded Liz then walked her back to where the Jeep was hidden and put her in. Her scream may have been just before they gagged her and she got one chance to scream for help.