I agree with you about ABM... It is a smear job by Harvey Weinstein of Miramax.
I want Lord of the Rings to win, but if ABM or even Moulin Rouge wins I won't be upset. The problem with the Academy is they try to judge apples and oranges, and you can't.
Saving Private Ryan and Shakespeare in Love were both terrific movies... but the best picture of that year was A Beautiful Life. So, it's hard to judge between movies that are so different yet equally fabulous.
Now see, the only movie in the running that I've even seen is LotR, so I can't really judge.... but the only movie I've seen that might deserve to beat LotR is not up for Best Picture (Memento). I am sorry about the smear campaign but I really took a dislike to ABM from what I've heard about it. Not my kinda film at all.