From the way they played fast and loose with the facts in ABM I should think it would qualify as a "fantasy movie" itself.
I expect LotR to clean up in the minor technical awards, and Sir Ian to get his, but not best pic or best director.
Don't want to get into the Oscar fight too much, and as a LOTR fan I of course want it to win, but I think what is happenning to ABM is a PC smearjob! So they don't show all the offensive things he said in his insane rantings, what is signifigant about that? As far as saying the character was gay and they didn't show it, my feeling is that he is more gay than Frodo and Sam and a lot less so than Ian McKellen. So the actual person didn't want this part of his life on the screen? Good for him!
Would winning the Best Picture Oscar because of this kind of a smear campaign be the decent and honorable thing? Can you think of any of the positive characters in LOTR who would support tactics like this? I don't think so!
--/rant!