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Posted on 10/05/2026 3:18:37 PM PDT by sopo
The battle to control the House of Representatives has become more competitive, as the Democratic Party’s lead over Republicans has decreased for the second week in a row.
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Email The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 44% would vote for the Republican. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for some other candidate and another four percent (4%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The net advantage for Democrats has decreased since last week, when they led by five points, 48% to 43%.
The week before that, Democrats led by eight points. The position for Republicans is now a net six points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.
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The survey of 1,794 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on September 24 and 27-30, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
The Democrats’ lead is due to a nine-point margin among independents. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 89% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 42% would vote for Democrats and 33% for Republicans, while 12% say they would vote for third-party congressional candidates and 13% are undecided.
The “gender gap” is a net eight points. Women voters prefer Democrats by a 48% to 42% margin, while men favor Republicans, 47% to 45%.
Forty-four percent (44%) of whites, 70% of black voters, 42% of Hispanics and 31% of other minorities would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 48% of whites, 16% of black voters, 50% of Hispanics and 45% of other minorities would vote Republican.
Democrats lead by 22 points, 54% to 32%, among voters under 30, while Republicans have a 10-point lead, 53% to 43%, among those 65 and older.
Ninety-five percent (95%) of self-identified Very Liberal voters favor Democrats, while 79% of Very Conservative voters would vote Republican. Among moderate voters, Democrats lead by 40 points, 62% to 22%.
Eighty-five percent (85%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 84% of Donald Trump supporters would vote Republican.
Left-wing commentator Hasan Piker isn’t familiar to many voters, but his support of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas is overwhelmingly rejected.
Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek maintains a four-point lead over U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race to fill the Iowa Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
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No ground game in 2026, no turnout; No turnout, no win in 2026.
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The democrat turnout can be blunted by the proper amounts of negative campaign ads.
I keep hearing about all these little democrats willing to “crawl through broken glass” to stick it to Trump & MAGA.
Yet, on their political forums I’m not seeing near the energy that they were showing before their horrible deflating loss in 2024. They may win the Congress, but they aren’t going to accomplish anything throughout the remainder of the Trump Presidency.
poll accuracy 2024, easiest to go to sitehttps://pollingsource.com/pollsters/2024
But , after pollster name, 2nd col is average error, last col is % of races called correctly, Interesting that Atlas was most accurate, but Harvard/ Harris with one of biggest error rates , picked 100% correctly
Emerson College 88 2.7 pts D+1.8 82%
Atlas Intel 66 1.4 pts D+0.5 92%
Rasmussen Reports 63 2.1 pts R+0.4 92%
New York Times/Siena University 53 3.1 pts D+2.5 57%
InsiderAdvantage 41 1.9 pts D+1.2 94%
Morning Consult 39 4.0 pts D+4.0 42%
Trafalgar Group partisan·R 39 1.8 pts D+1.5 89%
Bloomberg 29 4.7 pts D+4.7 18%
FOX News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research) 24 2.3 pts D+1.9 68%
Harvard-Harris 22 6.9 pts R+6.8 100%
Quinnipiac 21 3.0 pts D+1.9 50%
Marist 20 4.3 pts D+4.3 47%
CNN 19 2.9 pts D+2.7 50%
TIPP Insights partisan·R 16 2.5 pts D+2.5 33%
CBS News 14 2.6 pts D+2.4 27%
Cook Political Report 14 3.9 pts D+3.9 17%
Data for Progress partisan·D 12 4.1 pts D+3.8 25%
USA Today/Suffolk 12 2.4 pts D+2.3 50%
Reuters/Ipsos 11 3.8 pts D+3.8 10%
Wall Street Journal 11 2.6 pts D+1.5 56%
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research 10 1.9 pts D+1.9 75%
Public Policy Polling partisan·D 10 2.0 pts D+0.3 89%
UNH 10 4.2 pts D+4.2 100%
Washington Post 10 2.2 pts D+2.2 50%
Forbes/HarrisX 9 3.2 pts D+0.4 56%
Susquehanna 8 3.7 pts D+2.2 40%
Yahoo News 8 2.4 pts D+1.9 29%
East Carolina U. 7 1.3 pts D+1.1 100%
GSG/NSOR 7 2.9 pts D+2.7 40%
Marquette 7 3.2 pts D+3.2 0%
NPR/PBS/Marist 7 3.5 pts D+3.5 14%
UMass Lowell 7 3.6 pts D+3.6 57%
Cygnal partisan·R 6 4.2 pts D+4.2 100%
Echelon Insights partisan·R 6 1.9 pts R+0.3 100%
Noble Predictive Insights 6 4.0 pts D+4.0 50%
Remington Research partisan·R 6 2.2 pts D+2.2 80%
KSTP/SurveyUSA 5 3.2 pts D+3.2 100%
NBC News 5 2.3 pts D+2.1 50%
St. Anselm 5 3.4 pts D+3.4 100%
AmGreatness/NSOR 4 1.0 pts D+0.8 100%
Ipsos 4 3.7 pts D+3.7 0%
Mitchell Research 4 1.9 pts D+1.9 50%
New York Post 4 3.2 pts D+3.2 0%
Albuquerque Journal 3 3.3 pts D+3.3 100%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution 3 1.8 pts R+1.8 100%
Carolina Journal/Cygnal 3 1.9 pts D+1.9 100%
CNBC 3 0.5 pts R+0.5 100%
Federalist/Susquehanna 3 7.8 pts D+7.8 0%
Florida Atlantic University 3 6.1 pts D+6.1 100%
Franklin & Marshall 3 3.7 pts D+3.7 33%
KOB-TV/SurveyUSA 3 0.7 pts D+0.7 100%
MinnPost 3 1.1 pts R+0.6 100%
Muhlenberg College 3 3.0 pts D+3.0 0%
Pew Research 3 2.2 pts D+2.2 0%
Siena 3 2.7 pts D+2.7 100%
Univ. of North Florida 3 4.1 pts D+4.1 100%
University of Houston 3 6.0 pts D+6.0 100%
WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA 3 4.2 pts D+4.2 0%
Enten showed equal enthusiasm among “MAGA Republicans” and Dems at 74%
2022: 
Enten showed equal enthusiasm among “MAGA Republicans” and Dems at 74%.
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I’ll “eat crow” if I’m wrong on the midterms, but I’m not seeing a blue wave rising. Which doesn’t mean we’ll retain control of Congress, but it means the democrats aren’t going to win by very much.
For example,I live in Oregon which is a state full of politically retarded kooks that hate Trump. Yet, the current governor is in a tight race “cat fight” with her Republican opponent.
Along those lines, probably Thune wants a Republican victory even less than those two want a blue wave. Because Trump’s going want those $5k checks that I’d bet are turning the Hispanics R, and Congress is going to need to come up with the cuts to finance. Trump will hold his feet to the fire, because it’s Trump going to win the majority
Just today somebody was touting a preference poll with an 11 point gap. This is more like it and rather manageable. Let us see.
Trump’s midterm offensive is just getting started, but picking up steam, a lot of little October surprises, maybe a big one.
What Trump’s midterm offensive do you speak of? $4 a gallon gas or higher? Food Prices going up? National Debt going up?
Dims get political power and use it. They know the Lamestream will cover for them.
Gop-e tries to play nice because they're afraid.
I agree.
I agree.
Expanding truck production at Peterbilt in Denton, TX; forcing the Europeans to release 100 m barrels of diesel, new contracts for gas field development in Alaska, yeh, and $5k checks contingent on Republican Congress who then will be held accountable for their political lives to cutting the fraudulent spending to finance it all. OK, we’ll watch the numbers, but if you’re rooting for that Dem wind, that may not be the wind at your back, don’t turn around , something may be gaining on you, and that’s hot breath on your neck.The Iranian endorsement of your dems will help too.
There’s a veto, they won’t get legislation, they’ll get disruption
Yup, they could tie up Trump and his whole administration for 2 years.
Both sides do not have the American people’s interests at heart.. Both are corrupt.
it’s a dull knife, but Trump’s a skillful surgeon
Decades of polling and we still cannot get accurate polls, how strange.
Rasmussen 92% accuracy in races they called in 2024
negative campaign ads, if cleverly crafted, can discourage the other side from turning out.... and from turning out but not voting for a certain race.
I have often seen where a popular down ballot race has the most votes and the races at the top, which normally have the most, go against the norm and have less votes.
In 2020 both major party candidates were seen by the voters to have big negatives. It was expected by most habitual observers that there would be many who would pass on the presidential race. It was expected that the 3d party candidates would receive more than the normal ideological non-compromisers.
That the drop off and 3d party vote was much lower than expected in 2020 is very suspicious. But I know of nobody who pursued it to prove that most likely vote fraud actually existed.
(In IL in the past, I did prove that with LP Party votes being shifted to the major parties by the vote counters.)
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