Good points, but then why were the Serbs unable to keep the Orthodox, Russia-leaning Montenegrins and Macedonians?
I think those two are the only things that prevent making your conclusion a slam-dunk
Good points regarding those two. I would guess local nationalism was strong enough in both places to prevail. This feeling was probably egged on by seeing other parts of Yugoslavia like Slovenia, Croatia, etc go for and obtain independence. Maybe they would have stayed otherwise....after all it was much easier to counterbalance utter domination by Serbia if you had a bunch of other minorities you could ally with in opposition to it. If you were left all alone or just the two of you however, that becomes a different story. It means you’ve automatically lost the power struggle so its time to leave.