Posted on 07/04/2026 9:04:01 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
For decades, retirement advice has focused on one question: How much should you save? But two veteran financial experts argue that’s the wrong place to start.
The stock market has rewarded investors handsomely over the long run, and with major indexes hovering near record highs again, it’s easy to assume that simply investing consistently will be enough to fund a comfortable retirement.
History suggests otherwise.
According to retirement researchers Edward McQuarrie and William Bernstein, building a successful retirement has less to do with chasing market returns and more to do with understanding the kind of life you actually want to live.
Their upcoming book, Retirement: How to Save Enough, Invest It Well, and Make Your Money Last, challenges many of the traditional rules investors have followed for years.
For millions of Americans approaching retirement, their message arrives at an important time. Americans now estimate they need well over $1 million to retire comfortably, yet the average retirement account balance remains only a fraction of that amount. At the same time, longer life expectancies, rising healthcare costs, and uncertain market returns continue to make retirement planning more difficult.
Rather than focusing solely on withdrawal rates or stock allocations, McQuarrie and Bernstein say investors should first answer a far more personal question:
What does your ideal retirement actually look like?
Many retirement calculators assume everyone shares the same goal: maximize wealth while avoiding running out of money.
The authors argue that’s simply not true.
Some people naturally spend very little and derive peace of mind from knowing they’ll never exhaust their savings. Others prioritize experiences and would gladly spend more throughout retirement rather than leave behind a large estate.
Neither approach is inherently right or wrong.
Instead, understanding your own financial personality helps determine how aggressively you need to save, how much flexibility you require, and how comfortable you’ll be spending your nest egg later in life.
Someone who enjoys living modestly may already have enough to retire comfortably. Someone with expensive lifestyle expectations may require dramatically larger savings than standard retirement rules suggest.
One of the biggest assumptions many investors make is that stocks will always generate strong long-term returns.
Historically, U.S. stocks have produced average inflation-adjusted returns of roughly 6% annually over long periods.
The important word, however, is average.
Not every generation experiences those returns.
McQuarrie’s historical research, which examines market performance dating back to the late 1700s, found that roughly one out of every eight 30-year investment periods produced real returns below 4% annually.
That difference may not sound dramatic, but over decades it can mean hundreds of thousands of dollars less in retirement savings.
For investors counting on optimistic market assumptions, disappointing returns could significantly alter retirement plans.
Even the best financial plan has to account for uncertainty.
The authors identify three major unknowns every retiree faces.
Future market performance may be weaker than historical averages.
No investor knows whether the next 30 years will resemble the strongest periods in history or some of the weakest.
Healthcare costs, home repairs, family emergencies, inflation, and unexpected financial obligations can all dramatically change spending needs.
A retirement budget that looks comfortable today may not remain realistic decades from now.
Perhaps the biggest unknown is how long retirement will last.
Living far longer than expected is financially wonderful—but only if your savings can keep up.
Running out of money late in life remains one of retirees’ biggest fears.
Instead of focusing exclusively on the familiar 4% withdrawal rule, McQuarrie and Bernstein point to a much simpler benchmark.
If your investment portfolio equals roughly 50 times your annual spending, they argue the probability of exhausting your assets becomes dramatically lower.
Here are a few examples:
| Annual Retirement Spending | Suggested Portfolio Size |
|---|---|
| $20,000 | $1 million |
| $40,000 | $2 million |
| $80,000 | $4 million |
| $100,000 | $5 million |
| $200,000 | $10 million |
The implication is straightforward.
Your spending habits may have a bigger impact on retirement security than your investment returns.
Reducing annual expenses by even $10,000 can lower the amount of wealth needed by hundreds of thousands of dollars.
One of the authors’ strongest recommendations has little to do with investing.
Avoid allowing spending to rise every time your income increases.
Raises, bonuses, inheritances, and unexpected windfalls create opportunities to dramatically improve long-term financial security—but only if the additional income gets invested instead of spent.
Many households naturally adjust their lifestyles upward as earnings grow.
Larger homes.
Luxury vehicles.
Designer clothing.
Expensive vacations.
The problem isn’t any single purchase.
It’s that higher spending quickly becomes permanent, making it much harder to reduce expenses later.
By maintaining the same lifestyle even as income grows, investors can significantly accelerate retirement savings while still benefiting from decades of compound growth.
For younger investors, the authors recommend an ambitious benchmark:
Save at least 20% of your income throughout your working career.
That level of saving won’t be easy for every household, particularly early in a career.
But consistently saving a substantial percentage often matters far more than finding the next winning stock or perfectly timing the market.
Regular contributions combined with decades of investing remain one of the most reliable ways to build long-term wealth.
One surprising recommendation has nothing to do with money.
William Bernstein argues that finding work you genuinely enjoy may produce better retirement outcomes than constantly pursuing the highest possible salary.
Someone who enjoys their career may willingly continue working into their late 60s or even 70s.
Working just a few additional years can provide multiple financial benefits:
By contrast, burnout often forces high-income workers into earlier retirement, reducing both savings and future income.
For those already retired, the authors encourage flexibility rather than rigid withdrawal formulas.
Many financial plans assume retirees will withdraw a fixed percentage every year regardless of market conditions.
Instead, adjusting spending when markets struggle can significantly improve the longevity of a retirement portfolio.
Reducing discretionary expenses during difficult years may accomplish more than constantly searching for higher investment returns.
Ultimately, spending remains one of the few retirement variables investors can directly control.
Bull markets have a way of making retirement seem easy.
When portfolios steadily rise, it’s tempting to believe future gains will solve every financial challenge.
History suggests otherwise.
Successful retirement planning isn’t simply about picking the right investments or hoping the next several decades resemble the last several decades.
It’s about honestly defining the lifestyle you want, saving consistently, resisting unnecessary lifestyle inflation, and building enough flexibility to handle whatever the future brings.
Because while markets will inevitably rise and fall over time, the retirement you ultimately build depends far more on the financial decisions you make long before you stop working.
“I’ve never understood the economics of owning a motor vehicle, ... $20 a day - that’s more than $7,000 annually! “
Your math is way off for a seven year old car lightly driven. And you say you are not counting depreciation.
“$20 a day for it (when you consider all of your accident insurance, liability insurance, annual maintenance, oil changes, switching winter/summer tires, etc.”
Less than $5 a day.
“I’m not even mentioning depreciation or the cost of having a garage),”
The depreciation on a seven year old car is minimal.
The garage is an appreciating asset.
“We used to maintain the property ourselves. Now, pushing 80, we pay for house cleaning inside, and lawn maintenance outside.”
I am pushing 80 and still do it all but the roof.
I can afford to do it but it keeps me active and responsible.
I also pull weeds!
No thanks. Retirement annuities are best for the people who sell them - not the suckers who buy them.
I have been blessed to see some parts to the world via the Navy and a relative who lived abroad. The hotels were mostly free. The most expensive trip that I actually had to pay full fare was a golfing trip to Scotland about 20 years ago. In today’s numbers it would be about a $20K.
Invest at least 25% of your gross income in equities, consistently live below your income, live to your own standards never mind what others are doing. Additionally, save for things like home, car, school. I wish I had known more about investing earlier. It was hard to find time to learn with a busy career and not the resources we have now. My Dad never owned a stock and much of my generation planned on a pension that disappeared for most of us in the 80’s when we were thrown to the wall street wolves. If we didn’t know what to do already we had to learn fast and that included mistakes.
If you want to get an idea of how things may play out for your plan use the four percent rule tool some great fellow has made and play Monte Carlo simulations based on over 100 years of data. Your outcome may not match but it will probably rhyme.
Equities should easily beat inflation. Steady base hitting is not glamorous or complex and has ups and downs. Stock picking is as much emotion of the crowd based as it is data and I don’t think the two mix well. Some do well with it, just not for me. Targeted ETF indices seem a good path vs the broad market. Rentals? They work for some. Not my bag. I finally got rid of mine.
We live comfortably on proceeds of about 1/3 of our investments and SS. The rest is in reserve as is our home and 500 acres we live in the middle of. It is all from savings of 39 years and began with all I owned in the seat of a pickup and an engineering degree headed for Midland, Texas. Hardly rich by today’s standards. I may have dreamed of that from time to time but was never serious enough about it to ever be part of that club. My mind did not run that direction. I am risk averse and reputation greedy. I did enjoy my profession but never had the vision to be rich from it. I was all about just doing good work, inventing, integrity and solving problems. I do admire those who are geared to do more.
Regrets? Not enough experience, lack of mentor, being a little too cautious, not venturing out on my own soon enough or learning to play the corpocracy game sooner, just doing great work is not the answer, there is a lot to it I am just not suited for. This is another subject though. We did OK anyway.
I spent a huge part of my working life traveling the world. Neither my wife or I care to travel. Spending 20 grand or more on a trip would produce more regret and irritation than pleasure and memories. I like my own bed and space. My son flies for a major carrier and is disappointed we don’t use the passes he offers. I have so many hobbies, projects and interests I will never run out of things to do I enjoy. Loss of energy to do what I enjoy will come one day of course. It is nice to also have the means for my habits. On top of all that there is all the necessary work to take care of this place, one day I will not be able to.
Cross one bridge at a time.
The math didn’t work for me. So I marshaled all the skills I acquired in a 20-year military career (in my best Liam Neeson voice), and required quite comfortably in the Caribbean.
It was either that, or end up eating cat food.
What I meant was a monthly pension payment from an established entity like a corporate, State or military retirement system.
Those work out well for both my wife and me and they have a built in COLA.
Early 70s.
Absolutely right.
I have never used a hard and fast budget and do not use one now. I know what my income is and what my credit card balance is now and if I get a gut feeling we are spending too much, I rein it in so I can pay off the Amex every month.
Actually the key question is: Are you willing to eat Alpo and live in a cardboard box?
Actually the key question is: Are you willing to eat Alpo and live in a cardboard box?
You had a cardboard box? We lived in a rolled up newspaper in a septic tank.
Yes, your use of the term “annuity” was incorrect. What you have described is a defined benefit plan managed by your employer and/or its outside investment manager, which pays retired employees a fixed dollar amount each month.
Learned something new today, thanks.
Note, however, that many employer defined benefit plans use annuities to fund the plan in whole or in part. The key difference, however, is that large employers use their economy of scale to purchase annuities for a lot less than you and I would pay, and they buy multiple types of annuities with different risks and rewards. In addition
I had a mortgage free home at 65, but also live where I pay no property tax. That can eat you up, because likely you are getting nothing or very little usable for it. Likely if you pay property tax, you are spending most of it to help somebody else’s kid through school. I think that is about 70% of the property tax where I live. There are other considerations where you might be able to save a little as well.
I work for a for a company that has rewards trips to a lot of resorts that I would never spend the money to stay.
I still get taxes on the trips, but it is a lot cheaper than if I had to pay for them myself. Typically in Hawaii, the Caribbean or Central America.
Mine is breaking apart after about 25 years.
Up here in NH the frost breaks them up.
Mine is 200’ long.
Plus my house sits on a hill about 35’ in elevation above the road. So, part of the driveway is a 10 degree slope.
Which makes it fun in the winter.
The house was built in 1972.
The driveway would not be legal today.
It is too steep.
It is grandfathered
I’m that guy at my workplace that everyone comes to for a quick explanation of the company 401K (without having to ask HR) or something to do with investing however I don’t give advice but will tell people what I do with my money. My wife and me have been zero-dollar budgeting for 10 years and know our expenses to almost the dollar. We are also debt free and have a paid for home and a savings rate north of 50%
Having said all that and as we are in our career glidepath phase we know that our retirement expenses for the basics will be $3,000 per month or $36K per year. Of course we have to pay some income taxes but our worse case fixed income (assuming one of us passes before the other) will be twice our expenses, we have more as long as we are both alive and a decent nest egg that we really don’t need but are happy to have. The main thing is to save all the time and live below your means. Most people I have found don’t plan for retirement even at the point of leaving the workforce they have no idea what their expenses are or how much income they will have to spend in retirement.
I am guessing we could have made the Scotland trip for a third less, but the organizer liked 5 star hotels and dining.
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