Grok’s take on this video:
The video offers detailed OSINT on site layout, IRGC ties, and munition visuals (e.g., wing ratio, angle suggesting possible KH-55 variant).
However, cross-checked evidence from geolocated footage (Mehr News, verified by NYT/Bellingcat/CNN/WP), satellite imagery (Planet Labs, showing precision hits on IRGC naval compound), missile debris (US markings per Reuters experts), and operational context (US Navy Tomahawk launches Feb 28 targeting southern Iran) strongly indicates a US Tomahawk strike on/near the base caused the school collateral (~165-175 deaths, mostly girls 7-12). No independent confirmation of non-US munition or Iranian self-strike. Analysis has merit on military overlap but doesn’t override consensus ID. Ongoing probes (US/UN) may clarify.
Grok is misinformed because GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out). NYT, Reuters, etc have bought a bunch of Iran regime lies and so Grok repeats that in “analysis”.
I have a thread about it at https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4372769/posts?page=44 , and specifically I respond to additional problems with all of the sources Grok depends on, based on this video and other info, at https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4372769/posts?page=46#46 .
I’m open to analysis by people with better 3D skills, but it seems to me that Iran may have videotaped themselves (with extremely poor video quality so analysis couldn’t prove anything) making hits in the Minab area - including the hit on the school as well as the hit that this video identifies as being from an Iranian missile - and then let the “analysts” believe that those strikes were from the US after they found Tomahawk evidence because the US later used Tomahawks in the area, and acknowledged using Tomahawks in the area.