I think what really set Trump over the edge was the analysis from Nate Cohn about how Trump's coalition of young people and nontraditional voters has evaporated.
Young men in particular were willing to vote for Trump when he promised them jobs and relief from inflation. Then Trump started throwing around talk of foreign wars (plural) and surprise, surprise, young men don’t want to be drafted to fight overseas. Prices never did return to pre-Biden levels either.