Posted on 01/04/2026 9:16:15 AM PST by srmanuel
Axios is reporting that someone who recently opened an account with Polymarket, bet $30,000 that Maduro would be out office by January 31. When Marduro was flown out of Venezuela early Saturday morning, that $30,000 wager netted a profit of $436,759.61.
I've read other accounts of this wager indicting the account was opened on December 27, just about a week before the US took action in Venezuela.
Either way, this type of what appears to be insider trading needs to be investigated, seeing suspicious activity like this could tip off an adversary of impending US action and get people killed.
Nancy...Is that you?
Frankly, with the array of assets we had in the area and the rate of escalation we were witnessing this was a pretty good bet, even lacking inside information.
Not buying it.
“Enh, umh, enh… Paul’s the trader. I don’t understand that stuff.” —Nanzi Palooza
Herb needs to sit down and shut up.
Investigate, but no evidence it was an insider.
I bet it was Hunter Biden wasn’t he whining about needing money.
You could observe the number of the ships near Venezuela and make an educated guess.
Since the NYTimes and WaPo announced that info of the planned assault “was leaked” to them, but that they “chose not to publish it” because of the “safety of the U.S. soldiers,” this might be a good place for Treasury’s Financial Crimes Unit to look.
Maybe. But who would tip their hand to that guy? I doubt his dad was briefed.
“Out of office” is not the same as predicting capture.
It was not an unreasonable bet considering Trump’s stated objective.
Even if I had the money to throw around and knew that…I would not make the bet. The balloon would’ve gone up on February 1 with my luck! 😄
Just as well I don’t follow this stuff, but might have been nice to bet $1k. I assume with those odds, plenty of people voted the opposite way.
Trump’s move against Maduro wasn’t that surprising. It did not have to be “insider knowledge.”
The USA had already assembled the largest armada ever just off the coast of Venezuela. Oil tankers were being seized. There was several weeks of news headlines that Maduro was negotiating his exit.
It’s clear SOMETHING was going to happen, whether in January or in the near future. So regardless, to any close observer, its clear Maduro’s time was limited.
First I heard that. Good info; thanks!
Prediction markets can manipulate public opinion and political reality in ALL directions, and all of them can be completely wrong.
My own opinion...
Putting Maduro on trial in New York City is a HUGE mistake.
Half the people showing up for jury duty just voted for Communist Zohran Mamdani as Mayor!
How does poly market function ? ....did someone approve that bet ?
Unwise considering....
Where did you hear or read that?
Insider trading? NO! This was just good analysis of what was going to happen. When a large part of our Navy is outside your nation, subs lurk in the deep, an oil blockade is effected, commercial aviation is shut down, we are blowing your drug running fast boats out of the water, the CIA infests your nation and security and probably doing a little killing on the side, and Donald Trump offers you a way out to exile with money and you refuse, A MAJOR ASS KICKING WILL SOON FOLLOW. If I knew such a betting site like this existed I would have bet 5K. The only thing in question was, would he gone by Jan 31 or later.
PS
I am a life long conservative and voted for Trump in his first election but with trepidation as I really did not know what he stood for and Hillary was just totally unacceptable to rationality. Within 6 months of his first presidency I was a 100% supporter of this man, my president then and thankfully my president today.
If it was so obvious, why did only one person put significant money down as a bet.
Hindsight is 20/20, it’s fairly easy to look back say, oh yeah, with all the military buildup something was about to happen, at the moment I don’t remember a single person predicting a raid that would snatch Maduro and remove him from the country.
I could buy the good analysis part if someone was a consistent gambler on Polymarket, this person opens an account just a few days before the raid and only bet on one event, plus $30,000 is not chump change.
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